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2019-02-07 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Corruption , 353 references Ignore this thread
What Are The Odds?
[Comments enabled]

Me thinks someone has exposed a truth by mistake -- and will eventually regret it.

Hubris is like that, you know.  You think you have the upper hand, so you press your advantage.  But you forgot what the advantage really was, and unfortunately as time goes on (and not much of it either) people figure out what's really going on and then TSHTF.

I have long considered that one of the primary qualifications for being "accepted" into the major parties as a serious candidate (for anything) is that you're able to be blackmailed.  There has to be something in your past that they know about and can use to "keep you in line."  There is an utterly-ridiculous over-representation of people in the US Congress and other "high positions" that have been accused (or even proved) to have had interest in "little girls", as an example, which has led to the (not very funny) anecdote that the only way to "get" this politician or that is to find them with a dead girl -- or live boy.

As just one example I give you Dennis Hastert, who was Speaker of the House.  Long after he left office (but sadly for him, before he died) he was accused of structuring transactions illegally to pay off a kid he allegedly did inappropriate things with before he was in the House at all, say much less before he was Speaker.  It beggars belief that nobody knew of this alleged indiscretion before Hastert ascended to the House itself, say much less Speaker of the House.

Therefore this is a perfectly reasonable question: Who blackmailed him and what did they get?  I remind you that the Speaker of the House has near-absolute control over what is and isn't heard on the floor and thus what bills can and cannot be voted on.

Now we have nearly the entire Democratic Party senior level elected officials in Virginia that have been embroiled in either alleged racism or alleged sexual assault.  This began when the Governor took a position that many (myself included) considered endorsing infanticide.  Suddenly he was "outed" as having a yearbook page from decades prior that included two people -- one in blackface and the other with a KKK-style robe on.  He has denied being either person but few believe that.

Then, days later, his Lt. Governor, who would succeed him if he resigned, was claimed to have committed sexual assault.

And now the state AG admits to have been in blackface too!

So who believes nobody knew about any of these issues before these people ran for office -- and thus didn't use that during the campaign?

I sure as hell don't.

Second, what are the odds that all three of these individuals at the very top of the party in Virginia, would have this sort of taint in their record by pure chance?  Let's face it folks -- not all that many people thought blackface was funny ever, even fewer thought KKK-style hoods were funny, and nobody thinks sexual assault is funny.

May I point out that probabilities are multiplicative?  If the odds of, as a male, having committed an act that someone could call "sexual assault" during your life are 1 in 20, and the odds of being a blatant racist in your behavior (in public), such as wearing a KKK hood, are 1 in 20, then the odds of two such people occupying the top two slots is 1 in 400 -- and the odds of three is 1 in 8,000.

Still think what's been disclosed in Virginia is all a matter of random chance, do you?

There is no honest government that can be had if virtually everyone in high office is being blackmailed to either do or not do certain things.  That should be obvious.

But what's less-obvious is that this debacle has exposed the apparent truth: To get into high office you must be able to be blackmailed and therefore everyone in high office is being actively blackmailed.

Now you know why despite it being blatantly illegal for more than 100 years to fix prices or set up monopolies and restrain trade the medical and health insurance industry has done so since the early 1980s serially, openly and notoriously and yet despite losing two cases at the Supreme Court declaring that said laws do apply to them there have been zero arrests or prosecutions.  Oh, and the same applies to all the lesser scams too.

We no longer have a functional government in this nation and haven't for decades -- and you now have hard proof before you that by voting you cannot change it, since it is impossible to get on the ballot at that level without being able to be blackmailed.

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Kenerf
Posts: 4
Incept: 2015-06-26

Houston
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Yeah and I wake up this morning to news saying that the DOJ is looking into Epstein and his sweetheart deal he got from Alex Acosta. Boy if those aren't some pedo looking faces I don't know what are. Open the black book!!!! Even the Trumpster visited pedo-island.
Redjack
Posts: 125
Incept: 2018-01-29

Iowa
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Decades ago (mid 90's) my sister was a congressional page.

She was and is very naive. But she noticed that almost every single person she dealt with had serious personal secrets that the voters back home would not accept.

She left DC, and blocked it out of her memory.

Back home, we had a lot of local celebrities (Omaha, so yeah) connected to the Savings and Loan debacle. The stories that I heard from probable victims made me sure that I would never be in politics.

No one gets very high unless there is leverage on them, or they have leverage on someone even higher. So when I look at MS Crazy Eyes from NY, I wonder just what she had to do to get the nomination.

Power corrupts. Always has. Which is why I am enjoying Trump. Not that he isn't corrupt, he is, but most of what is typically used as leverage (affairs and such) has been played out in the media for years. Trump slept with an intern? Yeah, everyone knows that. He made some shady deals? Of course!

Now, that means we are nearing the end of the ride, and it is going to be very ugly. But I do take some pleasure in seeing the applecart upset, even if I am riding in it
Wifi
Posts: 1040
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Seagrove Beach
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This is the norm in the corporate world as well.

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Hurricane Evacuation Plan
1.Grab Beer
2.Run Like Hell
Captainkidd
Posts: 1237
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Houston, Texas
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To go even further on this premise, it also clarifies the fact that the elections are decided beforehand, much like a WWF wrestling match.
If the elections were being truly contested, the opponent would have found these things, and use them during the campaign in order to destroy the credibility of his opponent.
If the Republicans that were running against these men didn't use the information, it's because they didn't want to use the information, because they were told not to.

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A lawyer with a briefcase can steal more than a thousand men with guns. --Mario Puzo

It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. -- Henry Ford
Nadavegan
Posts: 146
Incept: 2017-05-03

The South
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@Redjack, several years ago I visited a friend living in DC. He is a fair a level-headed man, and at the time worked for a very boutique financial consultant in town. As we were touring around the city, he pointed out one restaurant in particular and mentioned that it was where "some shady ****" was known to go down. I asked him to clarify, and he explained that it was a safe place for very powerful people to openly enjoy a night out with someone other than the person they were married to. An open secret. How could not other such places exist?
Mangymutt
Posts: 865
Incept: 2015-05-03

Vancouver WA
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If a being from a different planet could only observe earth through watching NBA games, it would be easy for them to assume the majority of earthlings are 6+ foot tall, tatted up, black guys and we must have no women. Not everyone can play processional basketball, not everyone can fit into the NBA culture and although fans might not like the way the player looks, they are willing to forgive a lot of character flaws as long as that player, dresses in their teams colors.

Nobody is going to give up their secrets willingly, and almost all of us have them, especially in our youth.

We all play politics, just some of us are better at it than others and it takes a unique person to rise to the NBA level of politics. And just like the NBA fans, the voters don't care much about the candidates character flaws as long as the candidate belongs to their team.

There are people WAY, WAY, WAY better than many of the politicians we have now, yet they don't run for office. Why? On paper Karl would beat most of the candidates in Florida, on paper, he might even have a shot a governorship. How many of us would endorse him (My guess the vast majority) how many would contribute to his campaign? How many would tell everyone they knew to vote for Karl?

Even though he might be the best candidate on paper, he would never get elected.

Even if he had a deep dark secret....I don't know, lets just say he kicked a box full of puppies and made a kitten where tinfoil booties on a tile floor (Yea he is an evil bastard) and he was even willing to turn over those secrets to a "handler". What are the chances of him being elected? I would say slim to none. Why?

A guess; He doesn't fit into the culture, sure he might be willing to kick a box of puppies when the need arises, and I am sure he has in the past sat down with people he knew were true slimy bastards, looked them in they eye, shook their hands and got whatever deal needed to be done...Done. I have no doubt he has changed the coloring on some things to make it fit the picture (This is not lying, this is working with the tools at hand) At the same time I am sure he has worked directly with people he knows are out and out lying, again because the deal needed to be done.

What I could not see him doing, is working with slimy bastards day in and day out, and working with people who are willing to tell bold faced lies like it is nothing. I would put money on Karl getting the better of these types of people about 80% of the time. So you would say Great! He can beat those slime balls, yea, but at what expense. These people do not want to or like working with people of character and will find ways to over come their adversaries.

Karl could (I know he can't) out play Michael Jordan one on one 60% of the time, but he could never play in the NBA, he doesn't fit the culture.

Quote:
So who believes nobody knew about any of these issues before these people ran for office -- and thus didn't use that during the campaign?


EVERY body who needed to know. Knew.


Quote:
what are the odds that all three of these individuals at the very top of the party in Virginia, would have this sort of taint in their record by pure chance?



I wouldn't call it pure chance, but I also wouldn't call it pure design either.

There is a reason why good people rarely ascend past a certain level in politics, the church and big business.

Thelazer
Posts: 226
Incept: 2009-05-11

Davenport, Fl
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I've long said.. if even "1%" of pizza gate / pedo gate / Hollywood pedo, et all is true. Then no matter how crazy we conspiracy theorists are called... Well, I guess were not the crazy ones anymore.
Dudefish
Posts: 170
Incept: 2010-02-20

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Apparently the line of succession to Governor in VA is: Lieutenant Gov, Attorney General, and then Speaker of the House. The Speaker of the House is a conservative, pro-life Republican. So now you have the Gov (D), Lt Gov (D), and AG (D) all three compromised and stuck in a suicide pact. Chances are, now, none of them will resign. Because if you trip the trip wire, why don't all three go down?
Wa9jml
Posts: 319
Incept: 2017-04-29

DeKalb, Illinois
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A late, very good friend of mine, whose stepfather was a boyhood playmate of Huey Long was a justly renowned expert in Louisiana politics. He told me that Huey Long had a saying, that went something to the effect of: "Everybody has done at least one thing in their life that they would rather die than have that action publicized. My task is to find out what that item is, and if necessary, use it." So, blackmail is a tried and true political tactic.

Huey was a true Democratic Statesman, who broke the old power elite in Louisiana, and finally freed most of the citizens of that state. Before he was governor, many of the lower class and working class citizens were required to work on the roads for 2 weeks out of the year. This was the Corvee, and was part of the old French laws.
Darquefybre
Posts: 17
Incept: 2016-10-21

Ventura, CA
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I believe the fundamental building block of political power structures, is the dirt these scumbags have on each other. Nothing more.

Inability to find sufficient dirt, is the primary reason why Trump freaks the rest of these dirt-bags right the F out. He is either the least compromised, or part of the **** show.

I will bet on the former, but hedge for the latter.
Ahhz
Posts: 270
Incept: 2011-06-12

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The best line I've heard lately that pretty much sums up all these .Gov messes comes from the fictitious TV show Counterpart:
paraphrased line wrote..
...there aren't just foxes in the hen house, the hens are living in a house built by foxes...


Jal
Posts: 663
Incept: 2009-03-25

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If all the elites, ( the rich and powerful), can be levered, then does that means that we are left with those that should be removed from the gene pool.
Redjack
Posts: 125
Incept: 2018-01-29

Iowa
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Nadavegan

With to many specifics, I have people I know who work in NVA.

I may know the restaurant, or one like it.

The new thing is health clubs (or rather it was the last time I was told about it), or "football teams" for those of that persuasion.

Very common, very monitored.

As for big business, I suspect you are right. I have lived my life if my indiscretions were blared on the front page, I would be very embarrassed but would not have to move. In fact, a great many would find it rather boring.

But I know some rather connected people who are being whispered as the Trump challenger. They could not say that, yet what is common knowledge "back home" is not talked about. Brings a smile to my face.
Wa9jml
Posts: 319
Incept: 2017-04-29

DeKalb, Illinois
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The key to the efficacy of blackmail is the threat to use it. As much as the Republican Establishment would like to use the Epstein card to take down Trump, I doubt that they will play it. Doing so might well cause most of the politicians in both parties to be in hot water, along with a host of foreign dignitaries, and several heirs to the Throne of Great Britain. Then, there is the problems this will certainly cause in Hollywood and the entertainment industry in general.
Flaps10
Posts: 6980
Incept: 2008-10-17

PNW
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I used to work with a guy who wouldn't shut up about Alex Jones. This is one of the topics he was probably right about
Lenguado
Posts: 2550
Incept: 2010-01-12
A True American Patriot!
Orlando, FL
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Quote:
...and nobody thinks sexual assault is funny

Au Contraire - Sen Chris Dodd :+: Sen Ted Kennedy :=: 'Waitress Sandwhich.'

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I just realized... they aren't saying, "Keynesian Economics"
they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone!
smiley
Welcome to historys first Double Dip Depression
Emg
Posts: 297
Incept: 2012-11-20

Canada
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"As much as the Republican Establishment would like to use the Epstein card to take down Trump, I doubt that they will play it."

From what I've read, Trump banned Epstein from his property years ago, whereas many other big names in politics and business have been regular visitors to Epstein's oops-it-just-burned-down island for decades.

Anything they tried to use against Trump would almost inevitably take down a lot of their 'friends', too.

"This is one of the topics he was probably right about"

I used to find a few conspiracy theories convincing but thought most of the Alex Jones crowd were wackos. If the Trump Era has shown me one thing, it's that I was far too gullible in my earlier years; we've since learned that most of those conspiracy theories went nowhere near far enough.

Even today, I thought the 'Ginsburg is dead' conspiracy theorists were spouting nonsense... until the Bezos Post denied it the other day. Having the Bezos Post deny something is pretty good evidence that it's true.
Ee4fire
Posts: 392
Incept: 2011-03-24

Washington, DC
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As a native Washingtonian I can tell you that very few stories are not known, but they only come out when someone needs to be dealt with. It was common knowledge when Slick Willie was POTUS, the POTUS limo was parked at the Jefferson Hotel on certain nights because he had his girlfriends there for a visit.

All these politicians are human and they will act out their humanity. Many who are good people get caught up in the power hierarchy and high that is DC or whatever state capitol. Years ago the press ignored it. JFK and RFK were known womanizers. Their indiscretions were general knowledge, but not publically stated. Ole J. Edgar had plenty of dirt on many people and he used it to stay in power at the FBI.

Kamala Harris is just another woman who used her sex to get into the State of CA power structure. Willie Brown got Kamala'd like Slick Willie got Monica'd.

Ed Gillespie may have known about the black face incident, but chose not to use it and it may have cost him the election. Ed is not a newbie to politics.

The blackface incident happened over 30 years ago. But when he was running for Lt. Gov of VA he refused to shake the hand of E.W. Jackson his Rep opponent who is a black man and it was on live TV after a debate. For some reason that is not getting the play like the blackface event. To me this was more telling than a black face picture. Northam is from the Eastern Shore of VA and it was very much a aristocracy in past years with old families who controlled the local politics.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqO4u0yr....

Hillary did a blackface get up in the 70's with Bill while in AK and she has gotten a pass. The LT Gov of VA is in the same mees as Brett Kavanaugh, but both the accuser and accused are black. This making some new here locally, but mostly ignored nationally. He isn't going to the USSC, but this right on the heels of the Kavanaugh debacle. The same folks going all out on Kavanaugh are noticeably quiet on Lt. Gov Fairfax. The #MeToo movement is another Dem cover to go after Reps.

Now the VA AG who is a big Liberal Dem is admitting a blackface event in 1980. I guess he know it was going to be too long before he was going to get outted. So far, I haven't seen where a Rep was outted with the blackface event. I may have missed it, but I wonder who the racists really are?



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(Politicians), 536 commoditized temple monkeys pawing through the ruins of America in search of bribes. (The District of Corruption) works like a vending machine. You put coins in the slot, select your law, and the desired legislation slides out." Fred Reed. Some editting by me.


Gauntlet33
Posts: 87
Incept: 2009-03-30

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Karl said: "We no longer have a functional government in this nation and haven't for decades -- and you now have hard proof before you that by voting you cannot change it, since it is impossible to get on the ballot at that level without being able to be blackmailed."

I agree, and that's why I find it virtually meaningless to vote for either party, because it's like an old saying, "same ****, but with a different smell".

And although I spent significant personal time faxing letters to Congressmen in opposition to "Too Big to Fail" and other policies, like Tyler Durden once said on ZeroHedge, my vote is nothing compared to the billions of dollars used for lobbying and other under-the-table corruption. Therefore, my vote is no more effective than a fart in the wind.

The only way for things to significantly change is for the system to completely breakdown...either under its own weight, or through rebellion. And since Americans are a combination of apathetic, lazy and ignorant of many of the problems, it will likely be through a combination of the system collapsing/cracking, and rebellions/riots then breaking out once the food stamps and other welfare programs stop and as millions lose jobs and go from paycheck-to-paycheck to homeless in months.
Ptjim
Posts: 402
Incept: 2013-06-26

Pacific Northwest
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None of those three 'Rat clowns will resign or be tossed out, because if one goes they all go - and #4 in line is a Republican.

It's be hilarious to see happen, though. Gillespie must be so pissed-off at his oppo-research team. Wonder if he got a refund?

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He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harass our people and eat out their substance. - The Declaration of Independence
Apotheoun
Posts: 3643
Incept: 2009-08-14

MN
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The time is soon When we will have to use the cartridge box...

No one wins

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Preparing to go fishing.

I can't take the level of theft any longer.
Jack_crabb
Posts: 5688
Incept: 2010-06-25

Peoples' Republik of Maryland
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@Ptjim: I doubt Gillespie is pissed off at oppo research. There is a reason R's are the stupid party, the Charlie Browns of political parties. I'd put up a decent amount of money (and I am not a betting man) that he knew, but didn't use it.

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Molon Labe
Where is Henry Bowman when you need him?
How many are willing to pledge this? We mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our Sacred Honor
Wageslave
Posts: 1164
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San Francisco
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Government is for them, not for you.

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