The Caravan LIE
The Market Ticker - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Logging in or registering will improve your experience here
Main Navigation
Display list of topics
Sarah's Resources You Should See
Sarah's Blog Buy Sarah's Pictures
Full-Text Search & Archives
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be sent unmodified to lawmakers via print or electronic means or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media, to republish full articles, or for any commercial use (which includes any site where advertising is displayed.)

Submissions or tips on matters of economic or political interest may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Considering sending spam? Read this first.

2018-10-28 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 512 references Ignore this thread
The Caravan LIE
[Comments enabled]

There seems to be this mantra that some 10,000+ people are "marching" over 1,000 miles from southern Mexico to the US Border and it is all organic, never mind being timed to the midterm elections in a couple of weeks.

Bull****.

First, I can (and have) hiked 10+ miles in a day carrying a full pack of supplies.  I've done a number of times, unsupported.  I've managed 20 miles a few times, under good conditions.

But that's for a few days.  It's not over 1,000 miles or more.  Talk to people who have done that -- who've done the entire AT, for example, and you will discover a number of things, chief among them is that it takes money, it takes supplies and it takes logistics and planning.

The old military standard is that you can reasonably expect a fit, fighting-age man with proper gear to be able to march about 10 miles per day.  There will be days in which you can do more of course but this is a reasonable expectation over a long period of time. Doing so requires logistics, support and supplies none of which these so-called "caravan people" have.

Where do 10,000 people take a crap -- for starters?  On the side of the road?  10,000 catholes a day you think?  Who's got the trowels for that?  I think not.  What comes when you pay zero attention to hygiene and sanitation in a hoard of 10,000 people?  Disease -- and death.

Then there's just the basics of life -- water, to be specific.  In reasonable conditions you need a gallon a day per person just to drink, plus more for basic sanitation and similar.  It goes up quite a lot if you're sweating heavily, and if you're marching in the topical heat -- you are.  So now we need at minimum 10,000 gallons of potable water plus the containers to carry it in which each person must bear.  Where are they and where's the supply?  If said supply is from free-flowing sources and reasonable sanitation practices are not maintained then water-born disease will quickly occur and sicken or kill huge numbers of people.

Simply put these people are not doing this unsupported.

So who's providing the support?  Who's carting them around in trucks and buses?  It's happening, away from the cameras, and the so-called "media" is intentionally refusing to report that.  Who's bringing them ten thousand gallons of potable water a day and providing them with the means to carry it and keep it safe for consumption?  After a few days who's providing them with 10,000 meals a day?  Yes, you can go without food for a short while -- but only a short while, especially when exerting yourself like this.  And don't kid yourself either on caloric requirement; it's trivially easy to burn 3,000 kcal/day hiking over distances, which is at least 50% more than you consume sitting around.

Then there's shoes or boots.  Try to hike 15 or 20 miles a day for a week or two without being well-worn in doing that and you'll be dealing with bloody feet after the blisters you raise pop and are ripped off your flesh.  When (not if) that happens you're not going anywhere, and the resulting open skin is a fabulous route for infection that can and will debilitate and, if untreated, could kill you.  Could I make it 1,000 miles in one pair of hiking-specific shoes or boots?  Maybe, maybe not but I sure as hell wouldn't like it; the average person trying to hike the AT goes through three or four pair of hiking-specific footwear.  Could I do it without decent inside footwear (a few pair of good socks for example)?  No, and neither can they.  Who's providing all that and what are they paying for it with?

I have the gear necessary to spend time in the backcountry.  It didn't buy itself and it wasn't cheap.  A fair bit of it is consumable and when used requires replacement.  The food is always consumable of course and when out there you need resupply on a pretty-regular basis via some means.  We call those stores but to buy things in them you need money.  Where's the money coming from?

These are people who supposedly have nothing.  Really?

If these are refugees why are nearly all of them fighting-age men?  Oh there are token women and children near the front which, by the way, is exactly where you would not place them if you were really interested in protecting people as a cohesive unit.  But every picture and video I've seen features nearly all fighting-age men.  Among both men and women I see a hell of a lot of obese, out-of-shape individuals (which is a further problem when it comes to attempting to hike 1,000 miles) -- not starving refugees. Optics are more important than the facts, and hiding the fact that these people are not women and children marching unsupported over more than 1,000 miles is the most-important fact of all.

The US can and should find those trucks and supply lines and blow them up.  This is an attempted invasion.  Those who claim it's not will quickly be disabused of that when the formal support and supply lines are destroyed and said invasion force is unable to continue without it.  The lie of this being some "organic" thing will be exposed -- and those people will turn back.

What's wrong with blowing those supply lines, which the supporters of these "refugees" claim don't exist, to beyond the orbit of Mars?  Remember, said supply lines doesn't exist according to the supporters, so why would they object to something being destroyed that doesn't exist?

Trump is a liar and a fraud.  He knows all of this and yet he won't act on it.  He wants the political statement he can make with it, but he doesn't want solutions.  Mexico's government is not only complicit they are intentionally aiding and abetting this invasion and by doing so committing an act of war.  The Honduras and Guatemala governments are likewise sponsoring invasion of a foreign country (ours) and are committing acts of war.

Acts of war demand a response.  The US should drop the bridges in front of this invasion and destroy the allegedly-not-present supply lines.  At the same time we must make clear to Mexico that if they continue to support and supply said invasion forces we will take and hold a DMZ between our nations on what is currently their land and that nobody will be permitted to cross it under any circumstances.  If we must landmine said DMZ to accomplish that then so be it.  In addition all existing so-called "trade" must be embargoed and stopped, all Mexican holdings in the US seized and all remittances seized when attempted.  No money, no people and no goods cross -- period.

Our government has not only a moral obligation to put down invasions it has a legal obligation under our Constitution.

If our government will not discharge its Constitutional obligations then it is illegitimate and we the people must replace it.

Go to responses (registration required to post)
 

 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 1 of 2  First12Last
User Info The Caravan LIE in forum [Market-Ticker]
Smitty
Posts: 175
Incept: 2014-09-24

SW Ohio
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Wifey and I were discussing some of those points this weekend.

All the photos/videos we've seen display caravan folks with clean clothes and shoes, and more than a few sporting expensive smart phones and damned few toting backpacks, or other visible means of supply.


That such bull**** MSM reporting apparently passes the smell test for most is proof of a severe lack of critical thinking in our land.


Interesting times...a curse it is proving to be.

----------
There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.

-Soren Kierkegaard
Themortgagedude
Posts: 10883
Incept: 2007-12-17

saint louis
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Mexico has offered asylum and employment. They have rejected it. Trump should demand that they withdraw support and supplies now.

----------
I think its time we ask ourselves if we still know the freedoms that our founding fathers intended for us. Ronald Reagan 1964
Amgrace
Posts: 2316
Incept: 2008-02-15

New Castle, PA 16101
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Karl - as usual - well put:

"Our government has not only a moral obligation to put down invasions it has a legal obligation under our Constitution.

If our government will not discharge its Constitutional obligations then it is illegitimate and we the people must replace it."


Now I would strongly recommend a 45 minute "Periscope" audio recording where Scott Adams interviews Brandon Darby of Brietbart regarding the real world situation on the ground in Mexico (how the whole country is run by the Cartels) and in particular the border region (again - completely under the control of the Cartels). It blew my mind - and Darby points out that the only way to change it is by insisting that our "representatives" in the U.S. government enforce the law rather than engage in "diplomacy."

If nothing else, the audio explains how the whole country of Mexico is "governed."

http://blog.dilbert.com/2018/10/26/episo....

----------
American politics as a system has ceased to function, because the system has gone from representing people to representing money. And that is something that can only go well as long as the people have at least some of that money. - Automatic Earth 3/17/2010
Click
Posts: 336
Incept: 2017-06-26

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
"Acts of war demand a response".

Why bomb bridges and cause needless suffering and collateral damage? And why cut off supply lines when it's the suppliers themselves who should be cutoff and buried?

The command and control of Operation Diversify And Destroy America isn't located on some bridge in Mexico. In fact, C&M isn't positioned anywhere outside of American soil. Neither Hondurans nor Mexicans are criminally masterminding the invasion. Logistical support is not being funded by foreign enemies. The "foot" soldiers themselves (aka, useful idiots) are a mercenary force whose headquarters are located not in some foreign capitol-city but honeycombed from deep-down within America itself.

The real enemies who are the ones responsible for the ongoing invasion and occupation are enemies from within.

And who are some of the traitors?

Pissssst.... I'll give you hint: maybe the Seminole Indian got the targeting right, but his bombs failed to reach the correct targets and the bombs were duds.

Mangymutt
Posts: 724
Incept: 2015-05-03

Vancouver WA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Someone I am close with has real world experience in bored crossing. Not Mexico's Southern borders, but certainly Mexico to U.S. Not hundreds or thousands of people but certainly small groups. So the math on this is not going to be a one to one correlation.

Of course the culture from the U.S. to Mexico, to Honduras to Guatemala to wherever is going to play a role also. And support for the trek matters greatly. Although as they "approach" the U.S. the pictures I am seeing of this invading army are showing more and more women and children, but the vast majority still look like young men.

Karl may be twice the age of most of these young men, he is certainly in shape and has years of training under his belt. I have no doubt even under bad (Not horrible) conditions Karl could lead a small group, say 10ish like minded, like conditioned and like focused people on a close to 1000 mile journey at 20 miles a day at roughly $20 per person per day. Beyond that you are pushing the endurance of even elitely trained people and the size of the group has a direct impact on the overall cost. And that is without any sprained knees, ankles or such misshapes that will happen to a small group. The invasion group coming our way is no where near being able to accomplish that and their costs go up with each step.

From the experience of my friend (mentioned above) it will cost no less than $1000 per person just to cross from Mexico into the U.S. of course the army that is approaching us has no intention of sneaking across the boarder, as they flat out say they are crossing, so the cost of the actual crossing drops to zero per person as the cost is in getting to the boarder.

Then you have the problem with documentation, part of the cost of a small group crossing the border is in receiving documents that show who you are. Who is paying for those documents for the large group.

I suspect that vast majority of women and children are already amassed at the Northern Mexico Border, clean, well fed and refreshed.

The young men will be right behind them, clean, well fed and refreshed.

They will have no problem breaking into your country, they will have no problem stealing your jobs and the jobs of your children, they will have no problem raping your loved ones and killing you and your children as that is what an invading army does.

Now don't get me wrong, the vast majority will NOT be rapists and murders, but even if it is only one out of a 1000 who is, your loved ones are at risk.

But every single person in that invasion group IS a thief, liar and is coming for YOUR livelihood.

And I hate to admit it, but I sadly believe Karl is correct and Trump does little more than show he is a tough guy, there will be spot arrests and shows for the TV cameras as the vast majority walks right on by. I truly hope Karl is wrong as I would love to say to him "See Trump did the right thing". But I am not betting on it.
Cvdoc
Posts: 412
Incept: 2009-06-11

Washington, DC
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Trump has had years to do the right thing in so many ways - healthcare, the deficit, foreign military entanglements as well as immigration.

What separates him from his predecessors is his jingoism to the disaffected. Hes annoyingly good at it. At this rate he will be the Herbert Hoover of the 21st century.

Im just sick for the future.

----------
Few men desire liberty; most men wish only for a just master.
Sallust
Lobo
Posts: 520
Incept: 2013-12-25

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The first part in this article tells you exactly how the whole invasion caravan situation will be handled:

Quote:
With 2,100 National Guardsmen already fanned out along the southern border, and another 1,000 troops on the way, the Trump administration is doing everything it can to ensure that members of the migrant caravan headed north through Mexico do not illegally enter the United States.


and

Quote:
"We're not going to allow a large group to push into the United States unlawfully. We can't have it. It's not safe for anybody involved." Kevin McAleenan, Commissioner of Customs and Border Protection.


My emphasis added. See https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018....

So, no, they won't be stopped and told to go back and submit the correct paperwork in their home country, no they won't go through the standard vetting process and no they won't pay the fees or put in the time legal immigrants do. Instead, a bunch of burrocrats will meet them at the border, make sure the asylum paperwork is filled out correctly and release them into the US with a piece of paper telling them to show up at an immigration hearing six months to a year from entry. Of course they will show up, they're good, law abiding people.smiley

**** Trump.

----------
Village Idiot
R79kpryfma2rw
Posts: 3
Incept: 2018-06-23

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
"CAUGHT ON VIDEO: Mexican Police Stop Buses and Trucks Force Them to Take Caravan Immigrants North to US Border" -- https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/10.... . The video also shows a rail tanker car allegedly with water in it for the caravan to use.
R79kpryfma2rw
Posts: 3
Incept: 2018-06-23

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
"Oaxaca seemed like the most likely destination. But the caravan could not, for the time being, board the freight trains. Part of the railway had been destroyed by a series of storms, and there was a general concern that the trip would be too dangerous for families with small children." -- https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/.... . Most likely at some point the caravan will board freight trains which will take them all the way to the U.S. border. Mexico will help them because they don't want sickness, disease and death in large numbers. They haven't the infrastructure to handle that and it could easily spread to the Mexican population.
Vernonb
Posts: 2260
Incept: 2009-06-03

East of Sheol
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Best damn reasonable solution I have heard to this problem.


Saw ad by Prager U with late Charles Krauthammer today advocating making 11 million invaders legal non-voting residents but granting citizenship to children born here? **** you Prager U.

So what if they pretend to want to build a wall... it's the ones already here causing the problems. Burn in hell Krauthammer.



----------
"Mass intelligence does not mean intelligent masses."
Gable
Posts: 859
Incept: 2009-07-04

Retired in NC Mountains
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I fear this is just the beginning of the invasion just like Europe was flooded with Muslims we will be flooded from the south and Trump and our elected officials will do nothing but talk. Once the rest of populations of the Hispanic countries see they can walk right into the USA it will be a mass migration.

The decline of the American Dream is accelerating.

----------
In all of history, no government became more honest, less corrupt, or respected its citizens' rights more as it grew in size. E.L. 2016
Dmj625
Posts: 671
Incept: 2010-03-01

New Orleans, LA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Reported as fact without question:

Quote:
The caravan, which has included as many as 7,200 people and is currently approximately 1,000 miles from the closest border crossing with the U.S., has become a major issue with less than two weeks before the Nov. 6 midterm elections. The group has traversed about 30 miles per day since forming in Honduras, with many members saying they are fleeing the violence and widespread poverty there.


https://www.foxnews.com/world/migrant-ca....

----------
Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on.or by imbeciles who really mean it. Mark Twain
Tickerguy
Posts: 154882
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
30 miles a day on foot eh? Impossible.

As I said - blow up the supply lines that the caravan and other sympathetic people say don't exist. If it doesn't exist what's wrong with blowing it up?

----------
Winding it down.
Eleua
Posts: 15439
Incept: 2007-07-05
A True American Patriot!
N 47.72/ W 122.55
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Imagine what an outbreak of Noro virus would do to that crowd? smiley

----------
http://clearcutbainbridge.blogspot.com/?....
"My object in life is to dethrone God and destroy capitalism." - Karl Marx
"Destroy the family, you destroy the country." - Lenin
"Education is a weapon whose effects depend on who holds it in his hands and at whom it is aimed." - Stalin

Little_eddie
Posts: 1163
Incept: 2009-04-30

Delaware
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
A very slow moving train wreck if this was to influence the elections don't you think?

Covering 1,000 miles at 30 miles(??) a day is getting to the border around the first of December, a little late

----------
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that. - George Carlin

Ee4fire
Posts: 373
Incept: 2011-03-24

Washington, DC
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
This is an unarmed economic invasion or our sovereign nation. I would love to see the perpetrators of this march arrested and tried for treason and sedition. We should fight the same economic war in return. Stop all foreign aid payments to Central America and Mexico.

Stop all cash transfers from the US to Central America and Mexico. Some of these Central American countries receive a large part of their cash flow from the illegal and legal aliens in the USA. Any & all transfers should be confiscated by the US Treasury and help fund the border security required for this invasion and building the wall.

As much as I would like to use armed force to stop this invasion, it would be a world wide public opinion nightmare to use armed force against unarmed people that includes young children being dragged into this fray at the whim of adults. The Dems would be screaming impeachment and we would face the free **** army backlash in the USA. The US Military has weapons for use in urban warfare that doesn't harm unarmed people, but dies inflict non lethal pain. Using these weapons should be considered. Whether it is water cannons, infrared heat guns, tear gas, audio noise, physical barriers, or rubber bullets all of these should be on the table as well as economic pressure to those suporting this. There should be signs on the physical barriers any damage to the barriers would be considered an act of war & violence and would be met with lethal force.

The Mexcan Federales are actually mandating people use their personal vehicles and companies use their commerical vehicles to transport these people to our border. So Mexican Aid should be stopped now.

I worry Trump will capitulate and let some of these folks in, and by doing so he will effectively end his presidency. Obama & Bush are very culpable in this event and both should be arrested for treason and sedition. Both, especially Obama, promoted and allowed an open borders policy.

----------
(Politicians), 536 commoditized temple monkeys pawing through the ruins of America in search of bribes. (The District of Corruption) works like a vending machine. You put coins in the slot, select your law, and the desired legislation slides out." Fred Reed. Some editting by me.


Ahhz
Posts: 262
Incept: 2011-06-12

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Little_eddie wrote..
A very slow moving train wreck if this was to influence the elections don't you think?

Covering 1,000 miles at 30 miles(??) a day is getting to the border around the first of December, a little late


Well, its not like math has ever been the media's strong suit, nor most of the liberal arts majors I have known. I suspect the pace will pick up.



Nickdanger
Posts: 724
Incept: 2011-06-12

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
A non-lethal, viable solution might be using sound waves to create nausea and other unwanted physical effects. If you search for "frequencies that cause nausea", there is quite a bit of available info.

http://newworldwar.org/sw.htm

----------
Grammar: the difference between knowing your **** and knowing you're ****.
Delphis
Posts: 2228
Incept: 2009-06-04

Washington
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Sounds as though the "unarmed" part of this economic invasion might not be astrue as we think...

https://www.dailywire.com/news/37716/car....

Authorities reporting guns, fireworks, glass, and rocks being used by the invaders?

Game on!

----------
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe."....Albert Einstein
"Be courteous to all, but intimate with few, and let those few be well tried before you give them your confidence."...George Washington
Aztrader
Posts: 8113
Incept: 2007-09-10

Scottsdale, AZ
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
They were already offered Asylum and refused it. Sounds like they are not entitled to a second chance on this because it's obviously phony. If they needed asylum from an abusive government, then Mexico made the offer. They are not entitled to pick and choose who lets them in. Hopefully our military has the stones to stop them with force.
Wifi
Posts: 818
Incept: 2013-02-13

Seagrove Beach
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
What do we have here


USAID

https://www.usaid.gov/who-we-are
Quote:
As the lead U.S. Government development agency, USAID is responsible for reporting whole-of-government official foreign assistance data and information to Congress and the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on an annual basis. The report to Congress is called the U.S. Overseas Loans and Grants report, commonly known as the "Greenbook", provides a complete historical record of all foreign assistance provided by the United States to the rest of the world since 1946. USAID also reports Official Development Assistance (link is external) (ODA) and Other Official Flows (OOF) to the OECD/DAC on behalf of the U.S. Government each year.

----------
Hurricane Evacuation Plan
1.Grab Beer
2.Run Like Hell
Quik49
Posts: 5181
Incept: 2007-12-11

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Hell the woman in the back is on a cell phone!

----------
Long Vaseline....

Wifi
Posts: 818
Incept: 2013-02-13

Seagrove Beach
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List



----------
Hurricane Evacuation Plan
1.Grab Beer
2.Run Like Hell
Wifi
Posts: 818
Incept: 2013-02-13

Seagrove Beach
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List


Quote:
With the national debate focused on immigration, Discovery is heading to the U.S.-Mexico border for a timely live reality series



smiley

----------
Hurricane Evacuation Plan
1.Grab Beer
2.Run Like Hell
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 1 of 2  First12Last