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2020-12-12 13:31 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 937 references
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When I first began writing The Market Ticker I made a practice of doing a "Year in Review" ticker toward the back half of December with a list of predictions for the next year.  Part of this, after the first one of course, was scoring myself on the previous year's predictions.

Predictions for events, market-based, societal or political, with a year timeline are pretty tough.  Most years I managed to get somewhere around a third to a half of them, and a couple of times a few more than that.  Plenty of people thought this was a terrible record.  Frankly, I'll put that up against Gundlach, Gartman (who for a very long time was the absolute best person to bet against, ever) and a whole host of others, most of whom would be lucky to hit 10%.  And while half sounds like random chance it's not by any stretch of the imagination; these are not bets against professional odds-makers such as a football game where the book does its level best to set the line right at the 50/50 point and if they suck at it they are out of business in a very short period of time.

2020 was an utterly-astounding year.  I had made a decision a couple of years earlier that since I was quite tired of the NW Florida coast and the ever-increasing soft encroachment of "Ft. Lauderdale North" in both the level of corruption and other matters (e.g. traffic, etc) I was leaving, and spent most of 2019 looking for the exact where, focusing in NE Tennessee.  That contract was in the bag before the end of the year and in the early days of 2020 a hard contract to sell my residence in NW Florida was in the bag too.  Of course I had no idea at the time that Covid would show up a few weeks later -- but it did.  It complicated my moving somewhat due to the lockdowns and bullshit, but in the end it was all executed on and completed -- and I'm in no way unhappy with my choice.

I've long pointed out that for a self-employed or not-employed person there are severe problems imposed by Obamacare that make it really ugly until you reach 65 and qualify for Medicare, and they get worse every year.  I'm not yet 65.  The reason is the "donut hole" in Obamacare subsidies designed to intentionally screw you starting at just over $20,000 a year in gross income, and which reaches its maximum level of financial rape right at about $40,000 for a single person; both figures doubling for a couple.  The screwing ratchets upward rapidly with age, yet it is precisely the middle-age individual who is best-positioned to start a business -- during the formative years of which he or she will make little money and thus the screwing is most-intense.  It's the most-regressive taxing scheme ever imposed in the history of the United States against entrepreneurship.  It not only does not bother large, established businesses they actively promote and love it because it inhibits competition.

Had it been in place during my early years of MCSNet it would have literally prevented me from starting the company as doing so would have led to me living in the street; I would have been unable to pay rent, groceries and the power bill at my apartment.  If you think that outcome was accidental you're flat-out nuts.  I'd have had no choice but to take a "code monkey" position somewhere and by now I'd have likely been displaced by my job being moved to India or some H1b dude who works for $20k/year being imported with either resulting in my being tossed into the street.

It has been ten years since that time and nobody has risen up in revolt -- not openly, not quietly, not at all.  No work stoppages.  No general strikes, although I've pointed out that they're not only legal they cripple both government and private industry and are the single most-effective non-violent and legal means of coercion a population has.  Simply put nobody cares and instead the echo chamber of social media is where people threaten to secede or riot -- yet other than a few soyboi who claim to care about "black lives" yet burn black businesses to the ground, and have you noticed nearly every one of them bringing the gas-filled bottles is a white drug addicted asshole or serial felon?

Covid is just the latest load of bullshit.  Oh, not the virus; that's real.  No, the hysteria.  Early in the course of this thing I pointed out that by the math it had to be here in the US no later than October of 2019, and was probably earlier.  That's how comparing RNA samples works; entropy is a fairly decently understood thing and given a fair number of samples you can put an inside boundary on when something started.  You can't put an outside boundary on it since you can only compute from what you have samples for.  Everyone thought I was a crackpot -- but now we know it was true because antibodies were in blood donated in the first two weeks of December of 2019, and in fact the prevalence in those samples was 1.4% and was more-or-less evenly distributed through the country which means over 4 million Americans had been infected by December of 2019.  How much attention has been paid to this?  Zero; yet it is irrefutable scientific proof when antibodies are in your blood that you had the infection.  It is accepted proof for measles, chicken pox, mumps and dozens of others that if you have a titer of antibodies you were either vaccinated or infected.  If you look at the "flu" curves for the last five years you do have to wonder; is Covid really novel at all or has it been circulating in the United States for years?  It certainly was circulating in the first part of the flu season last year and yet of course we don't count anyone dead from it until roughly February despite hard, scientific proof that it was all over the place and more than 4 million Americans had been infected by the first two weeks of December.

Did the CDC, NIH or anyone else run any of these samples in January and February?  Nope.  Everyone simply took China's and the WHO's word for it.  Ditto when they started shoving tubes down everyone's throat despite us knowing in February it did not work in that the data out of Wuhan showed that more than nine out of ten times if you ventilated a Covid patient they died.

Remember this?


95% failure, known in March, yet our Lord and Savior Trump spent billions and fed a medical machine and murderous Governors including Cuomo, Witmer and others with ventilators produced under the DPA that did not work and we knew did not work, conclusively so.

Where were the people with their pitchforks and torches demanding the ejection of every one of these murderous assholes who killed your grandmother with known worthless but very expensive and profitable medical procedures?


Has this ever changed?  Nope.  It has not changed a bit.  Again we knew in March that this virus produced a clotting disorder if you got hammered.  I have early reports of this out of California in a thread in The Bar here on my forum.  I found some of it hard to believe; people with O2 sats pictured in the 80s laying on a gurney using their cellphone to text people, yet there it was.  We've known how to treat clotting disorders for close to 80 years.  That's no bullshit folks; Heparin and Warfarin are both very old drugs with known safety profiles used in millions of people.  My father was on Warfarin as he had phlebitis and it was a prophylaxis given to him in an attempt (successful over more than a decade's time) to prevent a clot from forming and breaking off that could have easily killed him via heart attack or occlusive stroke.

In addition there was reason to believe both Hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin were potentially active, at least if used early when viral replication was still going on to treat this disease.  As it turns out they both are.  HCQ turned into an immediate political football but Ivermectin was more-or-less ignored.  Or was it?  Not everywhere -- just here where money is all that matters and dead people are fine provided it makes money.  Think I'm kidding?  Look at the infection and death rates in parts of Africa and South America where there are few doctors and damn little resource.  What there happens to be is Ivermectin in wide-scale use as an anti-parasitic and damn little Covid death.  That correlation was known early, plenty of people misread it to think it was HCQ that was involved and perhaps some of it was because malaria is also in those areas.  By June the studies had started to show up on Ivermectin and at this point there are 24 such studies completed and reported out, 10 of them randomized trials and 100% of them found benefit.  Two, one in Egypt and one in Argentina found from 80-100% effectiveness when used as prophylaxis to prevent infections.  In short we know how to stop the promulgation of Covid without a vaccine and its potential risks; Ivermectin has a proved safety profile with nearly four billion doses dispensed along with wildly-common use in animals as well.

I have raised Hell about the screamfest of "Massssssssks!" for the last five months becasue it is clear on the data and the physics that they cannot and do not work.  Multiple alleged "scientists" have claimed they do but every one of those claims has been blown up over time as spikes have occurred after mandates where compliance has been extremely high, exceeding 75% and in some cases exceeding 90%.  There is not one place where durable suppression of transmission has occurred concurrent with a mask mandate.  Why not?  Because most transmission occurs in homes and the second is nosocomial -- that is, from a health care worker.  If a health care worker who is trained as a professional in the proper use of masks and in fact has access to and is using the best quality masks is still infecting people then obviously that particular claimed intervention is worthless and worthless or not nobody is going to wear a mask in their own home.

On the other hand a medical school, EVMS, has documented a protocol that does appear to work including post and pre-exposure prophylaxis.  The data says that protocol works as well as a vaccine in preventing infection.  This means we could have cut off Covid-19 starting in the late summer; we had the data and simply refused to use it.  Had we used it then at least half those now dead would be alive and there would be no fear, no reason for masks, no reason for vaccines or anything of the like.  The proof is right here:


We live in a post-science society folks.  I have no dog in this hunt.  I own no stock in Pfizer or Moderna.  I do not and never have earned a nickel from the so-called medical complex.  I've watched through my years decades of malfeasance and worse when it comes to medical procedures, from the bullshit surrounding statins to the latest crap including stents and high blood pressure meds.  You may or may not know this but there is no evidence that for a person with stable angina a stent does anything to reduce their risk of heart attack or stroke but has a 1 in 50 risk of killing you during or immediately after the procedure.  Yes, stents can save lives; if you're having an actual heart attack they are one of the few ways to stop the damage right here, right now and are of lower risk than immediate open-heart surgery, so there you go.  Ditto for blood pressure meds; in people with mildly-elevated blood pressure while the meds do lower blood pressure they have zero impact on mortality from the averred method of prevention -- stopping heart attacks and strokes.  Of course both make people money.  Then there's the statin mess which I've written on in this column many times, along with the psychotropic meds (SSRIs) which are known to create "rage monsters" in a small percentage of those under the age of 25 -- yet are still handed out like candy.

Anyway, enough of the expose on the medical scam; it's not new and in fact goes back decades.  It was a huge part of Obamacare and for decades before that.  It's been a racketeering enterprise for decades as well and despite it being fully and explicitly legal for any doctor to prescribe any drug "off label" -- indeed, roughly a quarter of all drugs are prescribed off-label -- doctors are threatened and even get their tickets punched for doing it whenever and wherever it might interrupt the cash flow in the local medical systems and hospitals.  Medicine, in short, has not been an art for a long time; it is now an assembly-line where the primary study endpoint is the making of money and outcome-based compensation is in fact illegal.  Little wonder the death rate per 100,000 people in the US has been going up rather than down for the last 10 years.

Oh, the media hasn't told you that?  It's right on the CDC's own pages!

Well, fuck 'em all.

In 2011 I altered what I ate, going directly against the so-called "medical advice" and I'm in better physical condition now and more athletically competent than I was when I was 17.  I consume and require zero prescription meds on a routine basis.

Since April I've personally used the non-prescription prophylaxis that has developed and been learned from over time.  The protocol I've been using has been stable since June.  I've been exposed to Covid several times that I know occurred (approaching a half-dozen known exposures at this point) and yet I haven't gotten it.  I did, however, get a nasty flu-like bug the first week of January that had lingering effects for over a month and proved physical degradation until just a month or so ago in terms of VO2 recovery -- but if it was Covid then I didn't build an antibody response to it because I've been able to ascertain that I don't have them.  Maybe I did have it, that I had plenty of spare capacity kept me being ratfucked, I was T-cell reactive and thus didn't build antibodies but all of that kept me out of the hospital and also kept me from being killed by a tube shoved down my throat.  Who knows.

In the backdrop of all of this and the screaming idiots under their desks demanding you dehumanize and de-socialize yourself by hiding behind a diaper we had an election that was one of the most-outrageously insecure and corrupt in my time on this planet.  It was facially illegal under the Constitution in a whole host of states simply because non-legislative modifications were made to procedure and those are facially unconstitutional -- pandemic or not.  I have no idea who actually won but it doesn't matter because, as I noted in a speech before the County Commission here a few days after the contest it is nearly certain Biden will be inaugurated in January.

This didn't happen in a vacuum -- it happened because for the last 20+ years you have sat around with your thumb up your ass as all manner of unconstitutional and otherwise illegal things have occurred instead of rising and demanding it stop under penalty of immediate removal from office and authority by whatever means were necessary.  This was compounded by what we now know was deliberate suppression of the fact that an existing criminal investigation was underway related to the entire Biden family for more than a year and their potential money-laundering ties to China, never mind the blatantly-unlawful acts surrounding and after the 2016 elections which the so-called "Savior of the World" Donald J. Trump did not stop, expose and blow to beyond the orbit of Mars despite being the factual head of said agencies and section of government responsible for same.  In other words he had the full authority to do so and didn't use it.  Stop making excuses for someone who had four years and sat around with his thumb up his ass.  He deserves ejection for that standing alone.

With that said here are my predictions for 2021.  As was always the case in the past I reserve the right to modify anything in this posting until 12:01 on January 1st, 2021 and no revisions will be noted as having been made since nothing is set in stone until that time.  This posting will not be pinned but will be exempted so it will not roll off; back when I used to do this every year there was no roll-off but now there is by default, so in the interest of being able to actually account for accuracy I will exempt both the post and all replies.

Here we go.

  • Biden/Harris is inaugurated on January 20th.  This could be interrupted at this point, in theory, by one of a number of events -- invocation of the Insurrection Act or one of the handful of court cases still running around.  But since the Texas case was dismissed (incorrectly in my view; it deserved to be heard in full whether the USSC liked it or not) the only actual option left would involve actual proof of systemic fraud.  Again, all elections have fraud but proof of systemic fraud doesn't just strip Biden/Harris from the Presidency -- it strips multiple State actors from office and in fact is cause for an immediate no-bullshit Revolution, right here and right now.  There are lots of claims that this occurred but thus far I've not seen a single one of them put forward as hard proof.  Those who are making claims that, if true, not only justify but demand such a response if there is anything left of a Republic to defend had better put up or shut the fuck up.  Acting to incite such an event without proof is just as evil if not more-so as installing Biden. Period.

  • The Senate will not flip to 50/50.  It may be 51/49 but that does not matter.  Without a 50/50 split The Senate can block the sort of radical bullshit that is coming from the AOC-wing of the Democrat party, and will.  The manifest weight of the evidence is that while plenty of people don't like Trump they like Communism even less and thus the Democrats suffered major losses in the House and in the States.  A few Democrats have noted the problem and urged caution; they have a brain and realize that the people did indeed push back against such things as national gun registration, "Medicare for All", "Universal Basic Income", stripping private property for grins and giggles, outlawing carbon-based fuels and/or gas powered cars, "Green New Deals" and the like. That political parties have batshit-crazy wings is nothing new; in fact it's as old as America.  In two years I remind you that it is the Democrats who have the severe disadvantage in terms of Senate seat retention and if they don't watch out they'll lose both House and Senate in the midterms which effectively ends the Biden/Harris Presidency as a matter of law-making capacity and if the suppressed investigation into the Bidens in fact ends with hard proof of complicity or worse it could lead to either a Biden impeachment, assuming he stays in office that long or even a dual impeachment of both Biden AND Harris.  With a Republican Speaker that ends the Democrat control of the White House on a summary basis in two years, not four.  Tread lightly, Mizz Pelofuckyoubitch.

  • There will be at least the rumblings of actual secession.  I suspect Schumer is crazy enough to not care but Pelosi, for all her bluster, is not.  She knows damn well that even a moderately lawful and peaceful act of blockading through the middle of the country (e.g. by General Strike which is entirely lawful or active denial which is moderately illegal), while nowhere near completely effective at shutting anything down would be wildly disruptive to city cores and might trigger mass-riots that would render cities entirely uninhabitable.  California and New York are already watching companies leave that are their primary taxpayers in terms of size -- California in particular has had drips and drabs of this for a while but it's accelerating.  There is a point where crazy gets pushed back upon and it doesn't necessarily mean shooting.  All the bleating in the world by a bunch of pantywaists will do nothing when you get down to it; at the end of the day someone has to go to work and produce the power, Internet service, food and various other industrial outputs that make modern life possible, never mind moving all of it from one place to another.  Piss off enough people or make their working environment dangerous enough with bullshit like what is going on out in Portland and suddenly you have a municipal water plant with no sanitizer and thus, no safe drinking water.

  • Covid insanity will be exposed before the end of December, and collapse in the New Year.  Florida is leading the way here with a demand for Ct publication.  Tennessee data already showed up from one lab proving that, if it holds for the other labs in distribution of test results that anywhere between 2/3rds and 3/4s of alleged positive tests were false positives -- that is, not infectious.  In short the Ct scam kept the fear possible from the late spring through mid-fall months where the truth would have made everyone shrug their shoulders and told the government to go to Hell with all of their restrictions.  Once this becomes clear, and I believe it will within the next few weeks, there will be Hell to pay and it's going to be aimed directly at those who took any sort of "mandate" approach to this disease or wagged their finger.  Suggestions are one thing; orders are another entirely especially when they cost people jobs.

  • The previous, once it is fully out in the open and it will be, will doom public acceptance of Covid vaccines.  For those at high risk they'll take it and it's probably a good trade-off with risk.  For everyone else, however, who won't have the opportunity until after the Ct scam has been out in the public for months, they will refuse.  The incidence of severe but not fatal side effects will only add to this; there are already reports of 105F fevers being produced which, I remind you, are stand-alone dangerous in adults.  It will take very few of those that show up in the general population and wind up all over the news to doom widespread acceptance.  There is also widespread refusal that is coming from very powerful places such as the NYC firefighters, who are unionized and are already saying they will refuse en-masse to take the shot.  They can and will enforce that refusal and won't be able to be fired for doing so.  I cannot accurately handicap the actual efficacy and safety of the EUA'd vaccines since there simply isn't enough data to do it; as I have repeatedly noted the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.  But once it sinks into the several million who were quarantined and forced out of work for 2 weeks because of a false claim they had an infectious disease they never had if you think those people are going to believe the very same government officials when it comes to safety and efficacy of a vaccine, especially when it produces severe side effects (fatal or not) in a material percentage of those who take it you got rocks in your head.

  • The factual capacity to interdict spread and provide early treatment will be resisted -- and won't matter.  With the most at-risk already vaccinated while "cases" will not go away death will, and immediately thereafter nobody will care.  This is sad, because most of what is part of prophylaxis for this virus also works for basically all the others -- not 100%, but close enough.  Specifically Vitamin D levels are a big deal and we've known that for a long time, but the sedentary, sit-indoors-and-play-video-games paradigm obviously prevents you from getting that from the sun and the lack of attention will stop you from taking a supplement.  As a result we will learn an effective nothing in terms of long-term health impact from Covid, which is really shitty but -- oh well.

  • Bread and circuses still works.  You'd think we had learned something about the eventual outcome of that sort of bullshit since, oh, second century CE? Apparently not.  Hand the people "stimulus checks" insufficient to even cover half of most people's monthly nut twice in one year and they'll shut up instead of telling the government to go straight to Hell, burn their masks, open their shops and other enterprises, stick up the middle finger and if the government tries to challenge that tell the goons to stand down, get out or get shot -- and mean it.  Yeah, they can try to pull business licenses and such but the reality of it is simple: There are 100 or even 1,000 ordinary citizens for every cop and they all live in homes that are not and cannot be protected at the same time they're playing goon squad; if it comes to a fight the citizens win and the cops lose, badly.  They only pull this crap and make their threats because statistically zero people stand up to them and tell them to fuck off; they know damn well their authority only exists because the general public consents.  The minute that changes they're done and they know it.  But instead of demanding that the goons shut up and sit down, leaving peaceable citizens alone so they can earn a living and calibrate their own personal risk of getting a virus as they see fit the people bleat that a $600 check was not $2,000!  Meanwhile the rent and power bill that they don't have to pay today continues to accrue and both the landlord and power company are now sitting on receivables that on their books is an "asset" (thus they look solvent) but nobody's asking exactly how that $15,000 per apartment that wasn't paid over the last year is ever going to be collected -- and from whom.  After all the people that got those checks blew it on booze and, in many states, bong hits.  I remind you that the American Revolution was fought in the middle of a smallpox outbreak, a disease that killed 30% of those who got it, not 0.2% and which with known treatments would be 1/10th of that or less.  What used to be the definition of America, in short, is gone.  We're all Jews being herded into boxcars in exchange for the promise of a meal!  How does this play out in 2021?  No idea, but ADE is a real thing and one or more of those vaccines might have that problem -- nobody knows because we short-circuited the testing.

  • Inflation is coming.  Not immediately, but it is.  Mid-summer, roughly, before it starts to get very noticeable. As a consumer that's when you have to watch out.  As an investor start paying attention roughly around March or thereabouts.  Beware that the markets have a way of figuring things out long before they happen.  Perv-n-Ho will almost-certainly be able to shove through both tax increases and sunsetting of other provisions, along with through Executive Action opening up the H1b and illegal invader floodgates.  Both will do critical damage to an already-screwed wage base.  They'll try it anyway since they see the writing on the wall for Medicare which I've written about for over 10 years and have studied and predicted back in the 1990s.  Nonetheless they have no answer that doesn't lead to an immediate and very deep recession, which no politician will do on purpose, so we're going to get hammered.  The hammer is not coming this year but the attempts to evade it will.  Count on it.

  • Expect the grab-bag of money-printing to continue.  If you're in a big city you're in trouble.  You'd think this would inure to your benefit -- nothing is further from the truth.  Corporations have figured out that they can run without all the expense that comes from their presence in those places and with it the decimation of budgets and big spending will accelerate.  The Federal Government cannot stop this nor replace it; oh they'll try, but fail.  If you own property in such places watch out; you are going to get it in both holes.  The 2000 crash was bad enough in that regard; the echo effects of that doubled property taxes in many areas.  This is likely to double them again which will render a large percentage of those properties worth an actual zero on a discounted cash-flow basis.

  • The left will go back to their violence -- in spades.  When they don't get what they want because the Senate won't pass anything stupid the riots and "black lives (don't) matter" thugs will be back.  By summer when it's nice and hot and the Covid scam has evaporated all manner of "fun" will break out.  Notice how it all disappeared literally overnight?  Well, that's because they thought they had a seat at the table and would get not only hand-outs but their communist agenda.  They don't and never did.  Whoever thought they were buying said seat by burning cities and minority businesses had rocks in their head; they in fact likely got charged several Democrat House seats.  The left loves to claim the "far right" is the violent group and goes on a shoot-n-riot spree but that's always been bullshit, all the way back to The Weathermen and even before.  Simply put when the "Far Right" gets mad enough to actually do something you'll know because structure fires started from chopped-up children stuck in ovens set on clean will occur by the hundreds or thousands along with other acts of well-targeted extreme anger in which the actor does not care if they get caught and in fact expects to -- they only care about the score they achieve first.  There are always a few lone crazies on both extreme ends but they pose no real threat; when it comes down to it the stock in trade of the Communist isn't removing people from the playing field via well-targeted fear and even direct assassination campaigns -- it's general mayhem that is intended to destabilize society as a whole.  "Defund the police" is equally-stupid for the same reason; oh, so you defunded the police?  Well who's going to arrest the gang-bangers who are having a shoot-a-palooza on the corner over some random drug deal and how many 3 year old kids get killed by said poorly-aimed fire?  What do you think the people who live there will think about that when it happens?

  • We learned on Christmas that the fraud and rot reach all the way to emergency services.  We'll pay for that in 2021.  The Christmas morning bombing in Nashville exposed a very ugly truth -- AT&T got a contract for emergency services all over the country that, among other requirements, included redundancy.  Not only did they not have it in the Nashville area the failure extended across four states; all the way into Kentucky, Alabama and the western corner of Virginia, including Knoxville, the NE part of Tennessee and elsewhere.  Ten guys with intent to attack that infrastructure nationally could literally destroy emergency communications for days across virtually all of America as the redundant switching and pathing that was promised in those contracts was not built and delivered and it has now been conclusively proved.  The CEO of AT&T, every person involved in that contract including the Governors, Mayors, FEMA and others should have been instantly arrested and indicted but of course none were or will be.  The problem isn't just the theft of money for services not performed; the far more-serious issue is that every American enemy, foreign and domestic, now knows how to cripple our law enforcement and emergency service communications and it will take years to rectify this if it's done at all.  The most-likely outcome will be exactly what happened in 2000, 2009 and with the election: They'll ignore it and nobody will spend a single day in prison for it.  It would not surprise me one bit if one or more of those enemies exploits this in grand fashion this coming year.

  • We were taught political violence pays off and is worth the (meager) investment; what is demanded when backed up by a riot, arson or looting is delivered by the politicians.  In city after city and state after state riots and arson following people getting shot because they pulled a gun on a cop, fired at a cop or were otherwise not actually "oppressed" resulted in defunding of the police, "new rules" that prevent enforcement of the law against violent criminals or worse. May God have mercy on the souls of politicians and those on the left if the rest of America, not the nutjobs who inhabit the wild-eyed crazy brigade, take this lesson to heart and decide to use it as a means to get rid of corrupt, tin-pot dictators at the local, state and federal levels along with those in the private sector, especially the rich assholes who profited mightily while destroying the middle class and small business.  This sort of lesson, by the way, is exactly how you get a dirty civil war.  While it's not an odd-on bet and thus not a prediction the odds of this happening in 2021 went from a background level of "1 in a thousand" to more like five to fifteen percent, which is not a trivial level of risk.  All your "preps" in the world, by the way, are worthless if this sort of crap starts to happen.

  • The bond market will appear to be stable.  It's not and I give it 50% odds of having the lid come off in 2021.  The Fed's repo game disappeared from the news but didn't disappear in fact.  The underlying instability is still there; beware in that the reason this occurred in the first place was the wild mismatch between actual supply and demand that always occurs when insane deficit spending is going on.  To a certain point it's absorbable especially if property value continues to expand in that there's at least an asset behind it with someone willing to go into hock to have it.  This does not apply to stock prices; they can and do shoot the moon into the maw of a fiscal collapse and have in multiple nations.  Expect exactly nobody to give a wet crap about this especially if the Senate confirms Yellen to be Treasury Secretary, and they probably will -- after all, they were all willing to line up on their knees to give her pleasure when she sat at The Fed, so why would it change now?  If it comes apart it will be Yellen that causes it.

  • Strum and furor out of DC -- but damn little actual change.  If the bond market doesn't blow and the money printing doesn't go bananas that's actually a good setup for the stock market.  Unfortunately it's bad for small business and virtually everyone else.  Big social media will not change a bit.  Nor will any of the data collection and exploitation.  The biggest problem with social media is that the entire premise of "targeted advertising" is to connect you with things you would buy and not with things you won't.  That's the entire reason it exists.  The problem is that it's not limited to "buy" in application nor can it be, which is an intractable problem whether self-imposed or enforced upon you.  Never mind that the firms that run it have their own agenda, of course, which they're free to express and will.  Not one move was made during the previous administration to separate out utility style services (e.g. pipes, DNS, hosting, etc) from consumption services (e.g. Facebook, Netflix, etc) and it certainly won't happen in this administration.  Why do you think they prohibited slaves from learning to read in the South?  You think the "farm system" these companies have set up is really much different from WALL-E's "CONSUME!" chairs?  Ha!  Absent mass-revolt of some sort such as targeted boycotts and shunning aimed not just at these firms but derivative acts on all the advertisers, their employees and families there is no amount of pain that overcomes the money.  And no, the "alternatives" (e.g. Parler, etc) are not any better; it's just a different asshole in the left seat.

  • My cat will remain my best friend.  While Hell may indeed freeze over and things could change in that regard I will not hold my breath waiting for it to do so as I would be very likely to die of asphyxiation if I did.  'Nuff said.

We'll leave it here for the time being but I may add a few more bullet points before the end of the year.  For other than typos and similar once January 1st comes, however, whatever is on the page is what it is.

Let the scoring begin!

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2020-07-15 09:28 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 1147 references
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A thought for the day.

The stock market is inches away from all-time highs in most indices, and beyond them in the tech sector.

Does any of this make sense if the so-called "pandemic" is as sold to the American public?

Think about it folks; this is what we're being told:

  • There is no lasting immunity.  You get Covid, and in a few months or a year you can get it again.  Note that this means you can get it even if vaccinated a year later.  In other words, forget the vaccine; it's worthless but will make companies a lot of money -- and that's if it doesn't leave a potentiating element behind, which it might.  If it does everyone who chooses to take it is at severely-elevated risk of death and you can't un-take a shot.  You cannot both have waning immunity and a vaccine that works.  One of those claims is false.  Given what we know about coronaviruses it's likely the waning immunity is real, as I've pointed out since this began.  In other words we have a tens-of-billions of dollars scam being spread around multiple firms as they're producing something that science says won't work over any length of time.

  • This virus is 10x or more as deadly as seasonal flu.  Yet it doesn't seem to kill healthy young people at all; seasonal flu does.  Further, the virus is clearly racist on the data; Singapore has a 0.06% fatality rate (approximately seasonal flu) while we have a 3.92% one -- sixty-five times higher  and yet both our nations have advanced medical systems.  Is this really likely to be true or are we counting people as having died of Covid19 who really did not because it suits a political climate along with scamming by the medical industry writ large, including short-cutting purchasing and safety protocols which would otherwise limit the ability to steal?  Multiple states, including Florida, have been caught fraudulently inflating their figures.  Incidentally please do note that nobody has yet been caught intentionally deflating their numbers.  Errors are randomly distributed; when all the "errors" go one way they're not mistakes, they're intentional, malicious, fraudulent and even felonious acts -- every single time.  Or worse -- are we intentionally killing people who get this bug by refusing to treat them early with inexpensive and potentially-effective drugs and treatment modalities, waiting until they literally have one foot in the grave before we deviate from the "standard of care" which is really nothing more than "stay home in bed and take Tylenol" and/or we're intentionally seeding the virus to vulnerable people in our health care and nursing home systems?  Again, tell me how Singapore has a death rate 1/65th of ours on a per-case basis unless one of those two explanations are true.  This is either fraud writ large or murder writ large; there is no other way to explain it.
  • The virus does not follow the laws of physics applicable to all airborne spread viruses, whether droplets or aerosols, but it's spread by droplets, aerosols, or both.  Not only is the virus racist it's also magical or even God-like in that it can evade the laws of physics.  Which is the more-likely explanation: This is a true statement or it's a massive, knowing and intentional lie that certain people and firms are profiting from and maintaining by refusing to so much as mention the contrary evidence, including direct evidence from both Wuhan and Hong Kong that was publicly reported at the time?

There's much more, of course, but this will do.

Then you have The Fed and Trump, the latter of whom screamed for zero interest rates -- and after being unable to get them why just like magic a deadly virus promoted by the same guy who fucked several hundred thousand Americans into the hole with HIV/AIDS and he shows up to do his bidding, and The Fed dutifully "follows suit" as he's been demanding for three years.

Do you really think the people in the market are not smart enough to figure that out?

See, if this entire thing is real and "as sold"; that is, it could kill three to five percent of everyone in America -- old, young, about-to-die-anyway (remember, about 2.7 million Americans die every year form all causes) then it would utterly screw the economy and market on a durable basis.

Instead it's within a breath of all-time highs.

You'd think, if you listened to the screaming Karens and equally screaming tyrants at the state and local levels that a literal apocalypse is upon us of Biblical proportions, not a somewhat-nasty respiratory virus that kills some people who had one foot in the hole already.  Cries of permanent lung and cardiovascular damage in virtually everyone who gets the virus, as some fear-mongers are claiming, is literally the end of the modern economy -- no bullshit folks, the real deal.  Leverage (debt) being what it is such an event would be the literal end of the US Government and an outright dirty Civil War within months.

Yes, the 2024 fiscal cliff within Medicare I've written on since 2007 in these pages and spoken of since the 1990s is still there -- and has been accelerated by all this outrageously reckless spending.  That will be damned ugly and there's no avoiding it.  But that's a different animal altogether than what the fear-mongers are selling you and the #MaskHoles are lapping up and REEEEEEEEEEEEing over on a literal daily basis all over CNBC, CNN and elsewhere.

Is it entirely possible that the market has it 100% wrong and it really is that bad?  Well, yes.  It wouldn't be the first time.

But if it does have it wrong, and this virus is really that bad and racist besides since Singapore isn't seeing those results then I hope you have guns and ammunition in size already because both are damned hard to find right now and due to the leverage that already existed prior to this event, never mind what's being added today, you're very likely to die all right.

It's just that you're going to die of acute lead poisoning, mass-arson in your sleep, gross brutality or even cannibalism -- not Covid.

That's the bet you're taking if you believe in the Covid garbage being run.  You're literally begging to be killed in a social and economic train wreck worse than the WWII concentration camps by demanding "social distancing", masks and lockdowns.  YOU set up and in fact cheered on this calamity by spending the last 30 years intentionally goosing the economy and markets through unsustainable leverage irrespective of political party and have done nothing about it.  While that unwind is inevitable and going to hurt if you compound it with a virus that is truly as deadly and nasty as the Faucis, Birxes, Governors and Mayors all claim then what you're really advocating for and setting up is an all-on socio-economic collapse on a national if not world-wide basis and resulting global dirty Civil War.   This you advocate for in a world where multiple nations have nuclear weapons and some of those nations (including ours) will be destabilized to the point of political destruction.

You may as well suck-start a shotgun if you're in that camp.  It'll be faster and hurt less.

The alternative is that you recognize you're being sold bullshit by the bushel, the market is right, and you tell all those mayors, governors and the Federal Government to shove their #MaskHole bullshit up their ass where it might actually do some good -- and if they refuse, well, then you start writing a document that begins with "When in the course of human eventsand enforce it.

After all when you look at the Singapore death rate from Covid19 -- 0.06% -- and compare it with ours at 3.92% you can only come to one of two possible conclusions: We're intentionally killing people at a rate and to a degree that every single American should rise up immediately and put an end to the perpetrators reign of terror by force or we're lying on a scale so ridiculous that it rivals the sort of propaganda leaflets dropped during a war.

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OK, enough of the bullshit (again)

We know at this point Covid-19 is a bi-phasic disease.  That is, in most people it presents either asymptomatic or with mild to moderate flu-like symptoms.  That's what the vast majority of people experience, including a very significant percentage of people at "high risk."

Indeed even the CDC is now admitting that ten times the number of people that have "tested positive" have actually had Covid-19.  This, of course, means the death rate is 1/10th that reported.  I pointed this out -- that the data we had was only supportable as valid if there was a monstrous number of people who were "silently" infected in March.

In some small percentage of the people infected they may or may not get that set of symptomology but irrespective of that they also get a far more-serious set.  These are the people who wind up the ICU and die.  We know what the co-morbidities are that greatly increase the risk of that happening -- in some cases by a factor of 10 or more.  But there is no guarantee for anyone that they won't get the more-serious set of conditions.

The NIH explicitly recommends against screening for two markers (sequentially, if necessary) that we know, through clinical experience and have known since March, are markers for the more-serious form of the disease when someone originally presents to a medical facility.  The cost of such a screening test is about $20.

Further, there are exactly zero circumstances under which a high reading on that first test is not indicative of a serious problem of some sort in the human body.  D-dimer, the test in question, is a byproduct of blood clotting; if it is elevated there is abnormal clotting activity going on somewhere; it does not tell you where, but it does tell you what.

One potential cause of the first test being abnormal is cardiac clotting.  That's very bad for obvious reasons, and ruling it out costs about an additional $10-12 to test troponin level, which is a cardiac enzyme indicating distress in the heart muscle.  (If that one's positive, by the way, you're probably being admitted to the hospital, but not for Covid -- for a serious heart problem!)

The Marik Covid19 protocol, developed by the Eastern Virginia Medical School, focuses on exactly this issue.

Note that their protocol includes anticoagulants unless otherwise indicated against (e.g. people with clotting disorders, etc) right up front for all hospitalized patients.  Specifically, Enoxaparin.  Think about that one; you give people that to either forestall or treat hyper-coagulation problems.

They're not alone.  Note that Reuters is referencing multiple medical centers in the US and elsewhere that are using both steroids and anticoagulants.

The NIH specifically recommends against looking for clotting disorders right up front and also recommends against steroids for patients with severe disease even though we now have had a result reported out where the risk of death was cut by more than a third of people in ICU with severe Covid-19 through the use of an inexpensive and readily-available IV steroid.

Has the NIH or CDC modified their protocol and recommendations in light of any of this?  No.

In short the NIH is explicitly ignoring the fact that immune dysregulation resulting in clotting disorders are both well-documented in people who have severe Covid-19 courses of disease and specifically recommending against both checking inexpensively for the early manifestation of same and treatment of same EVEN UNDER SEVERE, ADVANCED CONDITIONS.

That's flat-out nuts.

Who, must I remind you, is in charge of a significant part of the NIH?


Who, may I remind you, has placed that man on a pedestal and has yet to do anything about it?  Trump.

When did we know that severe cases of Covid-19 included elevated D-dimer levels and normal troponin and thus involved immune dysfunction and coagulation disorders?  Abnormal D-dimer levels were reported on Pubmed in February and in at least one reported hospital in the earlier days (e.g. March) when testing was slow and unreliable due to the CDC fucking up their reagents they were using that pair of test results (abnormal D-dimer, normal troponin)  as a surrogate Covid-19 indicator when people were admitted and later found, when the Covid tests came back, that it was nearly 100% accurate.  In short when they couldn't get rapid Covid-19 test results back they were using this as a surrogate to identify people who needed to be treated for Covid-19 with nearly 100% accuracy.

Is the NIH intentionally not going where the science leads because that would drop the fatality rate dramatically?  The hospitals that are doing so on their own have already driven the fatality rate down by more than half nationally in just the last month and by a factor of more than five since the pandemic began in the United States  If we actually updated these standards and expected them to be followed nationally as we learned more would there be anything to be alarmed about with this disease any longer at all or would it be similar to ordinary seasonal flu?  The answer, by the data, is obvious.

Now let's add a few more things.

Where are all the dead people with Lupus and RA in this disease?  While there have been a few reported cases the key word here is few.  Far fewer than expected based on the prevalence in the population.  In fact, since both combined are about 1% of US population and about 1.5% of the adult population we would expect among the dead somewhere between 1,000 and 1,500 who were taking maintenance doses of HCQ at a minimum.  Since both are autoimmune disorders and immune disorders are considered a high risk factor we should expect material over-representation among these populations.  Well, are the deaths there or is their prevalence statistically smaller than expected?  Why hasn't that been reported?  You do realize that Medicare and Medicaid know exactly how many people have these disorders among the elderly, poor and disabled and exactly who is taking that drug among them, right?  Where's the data and who is blocking its compilation and release?

Next, there is some anecdotal evidence that Ivermectin may work too.  I note that Ivermectin is a one dose drug, as opposed to "take X per day" sort of thing and it is considered safe enough that even non-medical illiterate persons can safely dispense it in third world nations.  It has arguably prevented more human suffering (specifically, putting a stop to serious parasitic infections that often debilitated and blinded people) than anything discovered in the last 50 years.  In other words the odds of it hurting you are nearly zero (although no drug has actual zero risk) while the odds of it helping are unknown but suggested by association.  Should that be tried, especially on initial presentation when viral replication is still going on?  I think you should have that explained to you and get the choice, but again, since it interrupts viral reproduction whether it will do much if anything once the disease has progressed is uncertain at best.  Note that you can buy enough Ivermectin to treat a horse for about $6; it's literally dirt cheap and thus nobody can make any material amount of money on it.

There are no "minor" clotting disorders folks.  Have we looked at these "ground glass" opacities talked about on CT scans via dissection to figure out what they are?  Of course not; you don't dissect a live person!  What if they're not "fluid" build-up but are instead thrombus?  That would functionally explain not only what we're seeing and why O2 sat falls but also would explain why intubation without dealing with that problem is likely to kill the patient.  In short a lung that's got micro-clots all over the capillary bed is much less-compliant and thus much-more prone to barotrauma.  In addition if the root cause is immune dysregulation intubation inevitably stimulates an immune response and as a result makes that worse.  Couple the two together and the reason for failure becomes quite clear, doesn't it?

We're still not owning up to this "ventilator" madness officially, yet it has killed thousands -- probably tens of thousands.  Coupled with the refusal to look at this as a bi-phasic disease, where most people get a flu-like case while others get a secondary case that involves immune dysregulation including clotting disorders is outrageous.  It's not like we haven't seen viruses behave that way before either; polio does, and it's one of the most-notorious viral bugs ever  The second form of attack by this virus appears to be able to be detected by a trivially-inexpensive test; why would anyone with a working brain ignore an indication of a severe metabolic compromise for which they can be treated?  Both Trump and Cuomo, along with Fauci, Birx and many others, should be sitting in the dock facing manslaughter-for-profit charges writ large.

Perhaps some of those with an actual "MD" after their name can explain how intentionally ignoring testing for a known problem -- specifically, a clotting problem -- can be medically defended?  Is in fact the only reason the NIH specifically recommends against this is to give cover when the doctors don't treat for said disorder and that winds up being a major part of -- if not the entire reason -- why the patient dies?

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2020-06-17 09:54 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 2204 references
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None of this is in dispute; if you have an argument to make with any of these alleged facts let's hear it in the comments, with your data source.

  • As many as half, and in some states as many as 80%, of people who have died from Covid-19 were nursing home or other long-term-care home residents.

  • Black people have a higher fatality rate for the virus than white people.  Various commentators have attempted to explain this as a race-based difference in health care access, although no such evidence actually exists (e.g. in KY, where the Governor has announced an explicitly racist and thus unconstitutional program to "cover all black people" with health insurance -- a program based on ethnicity and thus constitutionally impermissible.)  However, black people also have a higher attack rate than whites, which cannot be explained by any alleged difference in health-care access.  Obviously, if you are attacked at a higher rate given the same percentage of bad outcomes more of that group on a numerical basis will have bad outcomes.

  • Meat-packing plant workers have a materially higher attack rate than non meat-packing workers.  Said workers are also over-represented, by a lot, among Hispanics.

  • Said meat-packing plant and other agricultural workers, however, have a lower fatality (bad outcome) rate than among the general population in places such as New York.  And not by a little either -- by a factor of 10 or more.  That's well beyond statistical significance.  Indeed the CFR among these groups are in the low tenths of one percent.  That's in the realm of ordinary seasonal flu.

  • Japan controlled their outbreak without lockdowns.  People like to point to "mask-wearing" but are ignoring the 900lb Gorilla in the room when it comes to Japan and South Korea -- about 3/4 of all homes have bidets.  The percentage of homes in the US with a bidet is an effective zero.  (I have one and like it; among other things it dramatically reduces the use of TP, so my one roll of consumption is your three or five rolls!)  Use of a bidet, however, absolutely reduces the amount of feces contact with a toilet user's hands by a huge factor -- probably to 1/100th or less than a user of a toilet without one, since it washes nearly all of the feces off your butthole and into the toilet before you get off the pot.  This dramatically reduces the risk of fecal:oral transmission of any bug at the source and thus should be expected to dramatically reduces infection rates.

  • South Korea and Singapore controlled their hospital transmission without extreme PPE measures. Their solution?  Militant hand-washing in health care facilities; before entry to and at exit of every room and after contact with any potentially-contaminated person or surface.  That step alone cut the transmission to health care workers to nearly zero.  This was known in March.  We are still seeing crazy-high transmission in health-care workers in the United States, especially in nursing homes and other care facilities (ITC homes for disabled people, etc.) in the United States and we have not instituted said militant hand-washing standards here.

  • Homeless people appeared at first to not get the virus at all.  This made absolutely no sense and I talked about it at the time as a major confounding piece of data; I could not explain the apparent lack of infections.  Subsequently, serology and mass-testing of shelters later proved that in fact damn near all of said people tested were in fact positive for either antibodies or the virus itself, meaning virtually all of them either had it or have had it.  We originally thought they didn't get it because they didn't get sick!  But they sure did get the virus -- they just didn't get sick enough from it to require medical attention.  I note that "getting the virus" but not getting sick is good, not bad.  In fact it's very good not just for you but for everyone around you; provided you get some amount of immunity out of that the benefit to the general public is considerable.  Among said homeless people nearly zero of them have died of Covid-19.

  • Prison populations continue to report extremely high attack rates and yet again post near-zero serious case and fatality rates.  Note that prisons and jails universally have the toilet in the cell and thus fecal/oral contamination via surface contact is going to be extremely easy with no possible way to control it.  We keep seeing huge "bursts" of reported cases in various states which are prisoner test batches that show up all at once -- yet what we don't see are prisoners dropping dead or ending up in the ICU with the bug.  Note that incarcerated individuals are materially more likely than the general population to have lived an extraordinarily unhealthy lifestyle prior to incarceration, including drug and alcohol abuse.  Therefore you would expect them to have much higher mortality statistics from Covid-19 than the general population but this has yet to occur on a systematic basis in the United States.

  • Native Americans appear to have extremely high attack, severe disease and death rates.  Arizona is the poster child for this problem but is by no means alone; they just happen to have entire counties where a huge percentage of the population is Native American due to the presence of large reservation areas within same.  The net-positive test rate among NE Arizona counties in particular is astounding on a comparative basis.

  • Protesters don't get it either despite ignoring "social distancing" writ large and often or even usually ignoring masks too.  Never mind that if you're gassed by the cops you cough like a son-of-a-bitch so if you have anything now so does everyone within 20' of you.  The transmission rate should be much higher than the statistical average for everyone in the state if gathering together in close contact for hours at a time without masks transmitted the bug.  The data says it does not; their positive rate of 1.4% is less than half the index rate (average) of 3.7% in the state of Minnesota.

  • Delaying infection does not prevent it.  Remember that flattening the curve mantra?  That's delay.  The area under the curve (number of infections) remains the same but is simply spread out over more time.  Now suddenly that people are still getting infected results in screaming when this was not only a known outcome it was the expected outcome.  Has the collective IQ of Americans dropped below their shoe size?  It appears the answer is a resounding YES!

Note that exactly nobody pressing the racissssssss! screaming is accounting for any of this.  Until and unless we cut the crap with that intentional suppression of logical analysis we shall never get to the facts.  There are very important epidemiological facts in this data and in fact there are likely pathways to suppression of severe outcomes from Covid-19 to below the nuisance level found therein.

Exactly where they lead and how you get there isn't yet known but a number of hypothesis are all reasonable given this set of facts and if we are going to actually make progress with this or any other disease we must look at said facts dispassionately, especially where you have high attack rates in what you would expect are seriously-compromised and high-risk population segments and yet those cases occur with few to nearly-zero severe or fatal outcomes.

Remember that HIV was treated in exactly the same sort of "social justice" fashion and we shoved a half-million Americans in the hole as a result.  Almost-certainly at least half of those people did not need to and should not have died.  They died because we refused to analyze the data we had and go where it led us, instead "protecting" those who claimed that buttfucking was not only a civil right but also that nothing which called into question the dangers of doing so was to be admitted into public discussion and debate.

Ok, so what hypothesis can we form?

  • Attack rate is highly-correlated with housing density in a given unit of housing.  That we now know and it explains the higher black attack rate, the higher meat-packing employee attack rate, the higher nursing/LTC home attack rate, the higher reservation attack rate and the higher homeless shelter attack rate.  It also explains the higher attack rate in places such as Wuhan China even though I believe exactly zero of what was reported out of the Chinese without hard, independent proof.  All those populations have much higher housing densities than the average white American household.

  • Adding a bidet that goes on a toilet at the mounting point for the seat costs about $50.  Adding one to every American home and apartment could have been done for a billion dollars, roughly, and likely would have cut transmission rates by a monstrous amount at less than a thousandth of the cost of the economic damage we have incurred.

  • The lack of indoor plumbing and sanitation massively correlates with attack rate.  Witness the NE corner of Arizona; many reservation dwellings have no septic system or running water.  How do you wash your hands with soap and water without running water?  How do you remove feces from your hands after defecating?

  • Close contact, with or without masks and even in large groups where you are in such a group for hours at a time, but where personal hand-to-hand or hand-to-object-to-hand contact does not occur does not, statistically, appear to transmit the virus as the correlation with the protests is inverted.  This is not a singular event either; remember that despite tens or even hundreds of thousands of spring break revelers partying in Florida in March the total number of cases traced to same numbered five.  Remember that while correlation does not prove causation the lack of correlation reliably excludes a causal relationship.  So much for continuing to ban large groups (e.g. sports fans, political rallies, etc.), limiting capacity in theme parks, restaurants, bars, etc. -- and requiring masks for the general public in any circumstance.

  • At the same time the places where groups of cases have occurred all correlate with the potential for fecal:oral spread.  There is a just-reported set of cases linked to a Jacksonville bar in Florida.  How is their hand-washing protocol in that place?  It just takes one bartender who used the bathroom, didn't wash his or her hands, and then handled all the glasses served to those individuals while filling them.  The same is true for the communal transmission reported earlier among a family that had a large gathering where shared dishes were served and at the church in South Korea with a symptomatic individual which practiced close, personal hand-based contact.  At the same time groups of hundreds of thousands "protesting" in close proximity, in fact at "personal contact" distance for hours at a time don't get it.  This is very solid evidence that it is manual transmission via the hands, likely fecal:oral -- and not airborne -- that is occurring.  In short: WASH YOUR DAMN HANDS AND NO, HAND SANITIZER IS NOT AN ADEQUATE REPLACEMENT.
  • Severity of outcome is very highly correlated with (1) obesity, (2) diabetes, and (3) the use of ACE/ARB modulating pharmaceuticals to control various morbidity factors.  The latter was attempted to be "disproved" by a now-withdrawn study that was shown to have possibly-intentionally corrupted data.  Note that among homeless people you have a lack of all three yet you also have rampant alcoholism, which one would expect to lead to very severe compromise and bad outcomes -- but the data says it doesn't.  Native Americans are also notorious for severe alcohol abuse which would lead one to believe there's a correlation there but the extremely high prevalence of same among homeless people who have almost zero severe Covid outcomes argues strongly against that being a co-factor in severity of result.

  • Age is not, standing alone, a material mortality factor in this disease.  New York's death data proves this; there is no specific correlation with age to death rate.  A shockingly-low number of New Yorkers of seriously advanced age without any of the listed morbidity factors have died.  It's not being old that gets you -- it's being unhealthy in specific, discernable ways.

  • Attack rate is very highly correlated with the likelihood of fecal/oral transmission vectors being in play.  Nursing homes have an extraordinary prevalence of incontinent individuals in them and avoiding cross-contamination when someone has a diaper on is extremely difficult.  The more people in a given housing unit the harder this is to control as well, and the presence of high-pressure institutional style toilets radically raises the risk of expulsion of fecal matter onto both surfaces and into the air.  Lids do not stop the former, in fact they concentrate it.  We knew this was likely at-issue early on in that protocols in Asian hospitals were changed very quickly to require assiduous hand-washing routines and as soon as that was implemented cross-transmission to and between health care workers went to an effective zero, even without masks!  This also explains how Japan was able to control their outbreak without shutting the economy down -- most of their private homes have bidets which dramatically reduce the risk of fecal/oral transmission in private homes by materially reducing the amount of feces a person's hands can come into contact with.

  • There are no long-term care or nursing home facilities and damn few hospital beds or units that can, today, in their present configurations, control for the transmission risk of a highly-mobile fecal/oral bug, especially if the focus remains on "masks and gloves" instead of the manual removal of potential contamination from one's hands after any and all contact with any item or person that might be contaminated.  Again, we knew this in MARCH and have completely ignored it.  The willful and intentional failure to address this protocol is negligent homicide by the tens of thousands of counts.  There is not one governor nor health director in any of the 50 states who has addressed this fact nor have any been held accountable.

  • The fact that homeless people get this virus on a nearly-universal basis yet almost none of them get seriously ill or die of it is extremely powerful data.  In fact, within that, plus the prison population and meat-packing house data, is likely a key to exactly why, statistically, people get severe cases of this bug rather than benign ones and ultimately expire from it.  This is especially true when one considers that both prisoners and homeless people have a much-higher than general population prevalence of seriously-unhealthy behaviors including most-specifically alcoholism and serious drug abuse, both of which are severely immunosuppressive.

Through all of this we can find truth -- if we care to.

We don't care to.

We won't hold NY accountable, for example, for obvious intentional medical homicide in that they have one quarter of the deaths in America from Covid-19 but only six percent of the population of the country.  That's a 400% over-representation and is flat-out outrageous.  We know, for example, the state forced Covid+ persons into nursing homes; that's not an accident, it's intentional.  And there are allegations that NY intentionally left potentially or known-Covid+ patients outside of isolated areas in hospitals. Britain, by the way, has admitted that 20% of their infections were nosocomial -- given to people by the hospital.  What's our percentage and why isn't that reported?  Exactly zero of those infections and deaths are acceptable nor can they be charged to the "virulence" of the virus; by definition those are medical incompetence at best and manslaughter at worst.

There is in fact a pretty-clean argument to be made that bolting the door of every hospital instead of admitting potential Covid suffers might well have resulted in less death!  Think about that for a minute: There is a clean argument to be made that our medical system resulted in a net positive change in the death rate from this virus; we would have been better off in terms of dead bodies to tell people to go pound sand and tough it out at home!

We have not, several months in, stopped transmission in and through nursing homes and other long-term and intermediate care facilities.  Every single state still has a problem in this regard.  The number of transmissions in and between nursing home (and other residential care facility) residents and staff at this point should be a statistical zero yet it is not in any state.  This is hard evidence that the overhwelming focus on mask-based PPE is and will remain ineffective.  Anywhere from a third to a half of all who have died of this bug were in such homes yet an effective zero of them could have contracted the virus in the community at-large since they don't leave said homes and, since the lockdowns in said places started months ago haven't been close enough to others to get the virus via personal contact with other residents; their care-givers had to be either direct or indirect vectors!

We won't take the data we have, which is that handwashing is a massive deterrent to transmission while masks out in public do little or nothing and, rather than demand "masks" in public places instead put hand-washing stations, with soap and water, outside businesses and public buildings and become absolute "nazi-like" when it comes to handwashing where personal service from one-to-many is common such as restaurant and bar staff.  We also won't do the same thing in hospitals and other care facilities.  Yet we know masks (especially when not worn properly and in combination with excellent hand hygiene, which the general public does not practice) are not a barrier to transmission but hand-washing is, and we knew this in March after a South Korean hospital stopped transmission to their staff, even when not masked, by mandating manual handwashing with soap and water before entry and exit to every patient room and after contact with any potentially-contaminated surface.  Prior that they had a huge problem despite the use of PPE, yet upon instituting that protocol their staff transmission dropped to a statistical zero.  The same thing happened in Singapore.

We have a second, confirmatory data point on fecal/oral transmission from Japan which controlled their outbreak without material lockdowns of any sort and has a very high prevalence of bidet presence in private homes (~75%.)  The use of a bidet removes virtually all feces from your butthole and thus reduces by an enormous factor the potential viral transmission load from one person to another via that route.  Given the essentially "kissing" level of contact found on Japanese mass-transit (rendering a mask useless) and the same level of personal contact found in many of the recent "protests" this is further evidence that the primary means of community spread is manual, not droplet-aerosol based.  Note that South Korea, where bidets are also common, confirms this.

And finally, also adding a lot of weight to the fecal/oral transmission route as being primary, we have data from the protests now coming in that large groups congregating for hours at a time in close contact, but generally not exchanging hand-to-hand or hand-object-hand contact, does not result in transmission occurring irrespective of masks.

We have a lot of data, at this point, that strongly points to why some people get very sick, some people get nothing, and why some people get exposed but never build antibodies.  Specifically, there is also obvious cross-immunity to this bug but we don't know what it sources from.  That is the only logical reason why someone who is exposed and gets the bug, as proved by PCR test, would not develop an antibody response; the only way your body eliminates a virus is through antibody response, so if you don't build specific antibodies the only other rational explanation is that you have cross-resistance.

We have a medical system, in short, that is hell-bent and determined to find ways to make money off this disease rather than focusing on how to make people not die and we have a media that is complicit in lying about the facts and points of correlation (which suggest but do not prove causation) and the places where correlation is expected under their hypothesis but is absent, which unlike correlation does in nearly every instance DISPROVE the suspected causal factor.

Again: Correlation does not prove causation but lack of correlation DOES, in nearly every case, DISPROVE causation.  This is one of the first things you learn about in regard to statistical analysis; that which does not correlate should not be, absent hard, scientific proof, viewed as a potential causal factor.

Exactly as with HIV/AIDS they have adopted a model that increases the number of people shoveled into the hole so more money is made instead of figuring out how, at zero or very little cost, to contain and prevent transmission and under what circumstances people get it and have a severe or fatal outcome as opposed to a minor inconvenience as is the case with a common cold.

The evidence strongly suggests that the reason for the difference in outcome is both a function of cross-immunity and may, to a large degree, rest in both personal choice linked co-morbidities and commonly-prescribed and used medical interventions that are "believed to be safe" but in fact seriously potentiate infections with this virus.  The latter is strongly suggested by the data -- not proved, mind you, but very strongly suggested and in addition the modality of that threat matches up exactly with what we know about how this virus attacks the body.  Instead of running that to the ground as a public priority we instead had a study run with contaminated data that tried to discredit that which implies that scienter exists among the pharmaceutical and medical industries!  In other words, the evidence suggests they know damn well those drugs are killing people in the context of this bug and tried to cover it up.  That this didn't trigger an immediate investigation at all levels of the government and regulatory apparatus is an outrage.

I've been reporting on this since February, I nailed this vector as likely at the root of transmission in February and I've yet to see a single bit of evidence that the hypotheses that I have put forward on same, backed by the data as available at the time, has been wrong.  Then again actually resolving the issue neither makes anyone rich nor does it give you a convenient political sword to run your opponents through with, does it?

Wake up America.

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2020-05-21 06:00 by Karl Denninger
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Every one of these is a fact:

  • We knew, in early March, that this virus was not universally-transmissible.  That is, there was either existing cross-immunity among a material percentage of the population or the claimed "extremely" contagious nature of it via respiratory droplets was a lie -- or some combination of the two.  We knew this factually because people sharing a cabin on Diamond Princess had one person get sick and the second was both negative for the virus and never got ill.  That's flatly impossible when locked into an under 100sq/ft room with someone who has it unless you are immune for some reason.  Therefore, the repeated claim that "nobody" has existing resistance to this virus is a known, documented lie.

  • We know, and have known since early March, that nursing and other long-term care facilities house people particularly at risk for this virus.  Yet we also have known since mid-April, that post-exposure prophylaxis with Hydroxychloroquine is very likely to work -- because it did work with zero community-acquired spread cases in a nursing home in South Korea, and this was written up and published.  This is further supported by the fact that both RA and Lupus patients, who take HCQ on a routine maintenance (long-term) basis and have for years, are not represented in Covid-19 cases at anywhere near their representation in the population.  Further, since both of these diseases are serious autoimmune disorders and we know immune disorders are a risk factor for death by Covid-19 these individuals should by dying at a great accelerated rate -- but they are not.

  • There are now protocols for this disease that appear to be extremely effective.  I'm aware of two; one from EVMS and another from a medical group out west.  These protocols are very similar.  Only a small percentage of the people who are infected with this virus go on to develop a severe immune system over-reaction -- and that is what almost-invariably kills them.  These protocols aim to interrupt that and they are reporting near-100% success if initiated before critical damage is done -- in other words if done when someone gets sick enough to first require hospitalization.  The CDC, NIH and other agencies along with many medical and hospital systems are ignoring these protocols, which use inexpensive, off-patent medications with well-understood safety records despite that track record of success.

  • There will likely never be a successful vaccine and it's extremely likely that immunity irrespective of the means by which it is gained will not be permanent and complete. That's just reality with coronaviruses.  Facing facts is part of being an adult, and it's time we all did exactly that.

  • There is zero scientific proof behind so-called "social distancing" measures.  Further, the entire point of them was claimed to be to "slow the spread", not prevent infections.  The latter is not going to happen.  Period.  We must accept as a society that we're all going to get this bug eventually if we do not already have (or acquire) cross-immunity and for nearly all of us nothing bad is going to to happen.

  • We now know the lockdowns were crap and imposed horrific costs without any benefit whatsoever because lifting them has not resulted in spikes in infection rates.  Georgia has, at this point, been partially open for a month.  That is nearly six viral generation times; if there was going to be a spike we'd see the data by now.  Similarly the other states that have partially opened have not seen spikes either.  Never mind Sweden.  This was in evidence via the fact that the infection curves had all bent in every state before the lockdown imposition could have had an effect -- but instead of following the data on April 1st and lifting them all the lockdowns were enacted and strengthened anyway. 

Since we now have both post-exposure prophylaxis that has evidence of working (and it's dirt cheap) and we have protocols to treat Covid-19 as well which are highly effective (not 100% so, but no treatment ever is) and are also dirt cheap the risk of overload of the medical system is and has been gone for over a month -- and thus, so has any public health justification for restrictions on businesses or individuals.

Let's look at so-called "Red" States, including DeSatan's Florida who has been taking a victory lap.  In Florida the virus has killed 2,000 people supposedly -- likely fewer since there are incentives to count "died with" rather than "died from."  But Florida loses 200,000 people a year due to all causes, so DeSatan murdered the economy over a maximum single-year impact of 1% in fatality rates.  Worse is that the lockdowns likely will, within a year or so, be known to have caused more deaths from missed cancers, heart attacks and strokes than the virus.  Think DeSatan's Florida is a singular event?  Nope.  Governor Bill Lee destroyed Tennessee's economy over 305 deaths when the state loses roughly 70,000 people a year due to all-cause mortality; that is a rate of 0.4%.  Again, anyone care to take the bet on there being more than 305 more heart attack, stroke and cancer deaths due to the lockdowns?  For those states that did not intentionally seed the virus into long-term care facilities (e.g. nursing homes) the statistics are virtually identical in all of them.

All of the governors, both houses of Congress and our President continue to fellate Chairman Xi and China generally which, it is now established, both intentionally concealed facts and actively lied as did the WHO.  That corruption isn't just limited to them; it appears that our government funded the very lab where "research" prohibited in the US was being carried out and knew damn well that was the case.  Do you have to set off a nuke in a nation to constitute an act of war?  Isn't killing more Americans than died in Vietnam enough to clear that bar?  If it is then we have actual treason -- not the mealy-mouthed bullshit often spouted by conspiracy theorists but an actual overt act of war committed upon the people of the United States by both its government and China.

What every state and locale is now attempting -- and has been now for over a month -- is nothing more than flat-out tyranny in response to those acts of treason, with all of it under proved false pretense.

Trump is no better than anyone else in this regard; he could withdraw the emergency declarations upon which the state powers rest in an afternoon and by doing so terminate both his and the various State emergency powers.  He hasn't; he loves his additional powers never mind that the alleged predicate for them is a fraud.

This has now gone from self-inflicted and irrational injury to outright insanity.  The US Constitution and Federal Statutes (specifically 18 USC 242) forbidding deprivation of civil rights under color of law or authority are a joke.   The tens of thousands of dead seniors who all passed directly due to lack of prophylaxis which was ordered to not be dispensed by governors along with intentionally seeding sick people into long term care facilities combines to make for the best manslaughter charge I've seen in decades.  What these governors and mayors did is functionally equivalent to Cuomo soliciting an HIV+ man to anally rape people without a condom, then refusing to supply any sort of drugs for the highly-likely resulting infections.  The outcome for tens of thousands of seniors has been exactly the same.  Yet the number of such charges number a big fat zero and we have 330 million Americans who are sitting on their ass and are continuing to allow this to happen day by day.

Then there's the fact that in 1968 a pandemic flu swept the nation and killed about as many, on a population-adjusted basis, as did Covid-19.  Did we lock down anything in response?  Nope.

There is literally no reason for any businessperson or individual to follow any of the alleged "mandates" at this point. and in fact there never was  All of them were sold to you under false pretense, including Trump's original "15 days."  At the expiration of those 15 days it was over and any attempt to extend it should have been met with an immediate refusal across the board -- we knew at that point the "mitigations" were ineffective as the downward bend in the infection rate happened before the action could have taken effect.

Corruption at the local, state and federal level is nothing new.  But we've now got proof -- not evidence, proof -- that there are no local, state or federal officials, including the entirety of Congress, who are not corrupt.  They've ruined businesses by the millions, they've killed seniors by the tens of thousands and the insult continues to this very day.

There is only one response warranted by the people at large and until I see it, well, it's time to do something more-productive than what amounts to masturbation in attempting to inform people.

It's this:


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