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2022-09-26 08:00 by Karl Denninger
in POTD , 128 references


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2022-09-26 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 437 references
[Comments enabled]  

Want to have a better life?

Stop being around people who have no interest in better anything, including most importantly their interaction with you.

There's always an available excuse to keep someone who does that in your orbit.  I don't care if the issue is that they're wildly obese and thus unhealthy, they are convinced the world is ending tomorrow and thus are drinking or drugging themselves half-to-death (and will eventually make it entirely to death if they keep it up) or are simply toxic beyond reason, whether it is being scared of this thing floating in the air or that and demand that you take steps to accommodate them or they scream that everyone but them is a "whatever-is-shiny-today"-ist.

Folks, social interaction is a two-edged sword.  Yes, its positive to get out and be around other people, interacting with them socially in a positive way.  But it is also equally negative or worse for you to do so with people who lie to themselves or project damaging or worse "features" upon others.

I constantly hear people say "oh its a phase" or "but this person needs my help."

Really?  How much of that "help" becomes reciprocal in your direction when things are going poorly for you?

Further, there is a huge difference between being supportive for someone who through no fault of their own has a horrible thing happen and those who put themselves in the position they're in through their own choices.  The former is not anyone's "fault"; a tornado that rips through your house isn't something you can reasonably mitigate against.  That's not what I'm talking about here, and taking someone (including possibly their family) in on a limited basis if that sort of thing happens, provided they do not abuse your offer to evade taking responsibility for finding a new place to live or repairing their damaged residence is reasonable.

In short if you want your life to be better and more-balanced get rid of the people in your orbit who make it less-so.

So-called "social media" exists because said interaction can easily become an addiction. Any addiction is by definition open to exploitation by others, and this sort of thing is no exception.

Yes, this extends to faith organizations and to some extent work as well.

While it is certainly true that just getting up from the chair at work, if you have no other job lined up right now, can result in bad outcomes the refusal to seek other options as well as continuing to bring that toxic environment out of the work place and into your personal life is a choice and to the extent you offload it on others you are now asking them to take your consequence just as a "friend" does so when they do that to you.

When it comes to places of purely-voluntary interaction such as a club, church or otherwise if you remain in your seat when this so much as starts then you've taken it upon yourself.

Delete those elements of your life from your daily experience and, if challenged by the institutions or people who you no longer interact with (all of whom by definition aren't very good at figuring out what they're doing and why its toxic, are they?) tell them why. 

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2022-09-25 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 337 references
[Comments enabled]  

You see, many claim we need "more money" for such, one being John Kirby:

UNITED NATIONS, New York – The U.S. border will need "record" investment to ensure that criminal or terrorist elements do not slip in, Fox News Digital learned during an interview with National Security Agency Strategic Communications Coordinator John Kirby. 

That's nonsense.

You need only do the following:

  • Anyone who comes across the border at other than a regular and marked legitimate point of entry is instantly deported back across whatever border they violated.  There are no exceptions and it does not matter what the circumstances are that led to them doing so, nor does it matter how far they get into the US before being caught, or how long ago they entered.  We have plenty of regularized entry points into the United States; any attempt at subterfuge is simply defined as an offense, you have no right to parole or to seek whatever relief you were attempting if you use it, you're gone same-day, period, every time.  I don't give a wet crap if Mexico (or Canada for that matter) doesn't like this; their nation is the one allowing the illegal crossings and they can stop it using whatever process or level of force they deem appropriate.  We can and should enforce the return back across said border with military power if necessary -- yes, that means if Mexico lets people approach and cross illegally through our border with them we'll be happy to return said persons using military power to insure they are in fact returned to Mexico.  A person who is here illegally now can avoid being subject to this by self-deporting and then presenting themselves at a regular port of entry and going through the proper process.

  • A second attempt to enter on an "irregular" basis results in a permanent ban on entry to the United States.  Again, no exceptions will be made and yes, that includes if they have citizen or green card relatives in the US already.  When someone is deported for the first attempt they are informed of this so they have fair warning as to the consequence of trying it again.

  • Any attempt to violate said border by force is declared ex-ante to be an invasion and met with deadly force.  No exceptions.  If you mass with others to try to break down a wall, fence or other crossing point, or try to use force to get across the border, including cutting fences or otherwise damaging or scaling barriers you get shot.  This is clearly noted in enough languages at said border points that nobody can claim they didn't have "fair warning"; they do have fair warning, and just like attempting to rob someone who is holding a gun on you if you're that stupid then take it up with God.

  • Anyone presenting themselves at a border crossing claiming "asylum" who has not presented said claim to a US Consulate available to them somewhere between their point of origin and attempted entry must remain where they presented it on the other side until the claim is adjudicated.  Again, no exceptions.  If you're Mexican and present at the US/Mexico border, fine and well.  If you try to come from Venezuela you had multiple other opportunities including in Mexico and didn't use them; your claim is denied because you deliberately attempted to evade screening of the validity of your claim at multiple points.  Period.  Again, we make this clear via publication worldwide and we have consulates and similar offices all over the world who's job is, in part, to do exactly this.

  • Anyone hiring someone in the United States must run them through E-Verify and put the control number from the system on their 941 and tax deposit information form as proof that it was done.  There is no "additional" burden for this on a recurring basis, only that you use the system once at the time of hiring because you already must file the 941s and submit the informational returns with every tax deposit so the IRS knows where the tax deposits go for Social Security, Medicare and income tax purposes.  There is also no burden on employees as you must already submit to the employer documentation that you're lawfully-entitled to work.  If you're an employer and don't do this you are criminally liable for harboring the person if they're illegally here.  It's not a fine, it's a felony and you go to prison.  Yes, including those who hire "help around the house" such as nannies and similar and I do not care how rich you are.  Period.  That's the thing about prison -- no matter how rich or poor you might be it sucks pretty-much equally for all, unlike a fine that is laughed at by those with sufficient amounts of money.

That's it.

This is trivial to do and it stops the illegal border crossings immediately at near-zero cost or expense.  Those here illegally who desire to actually be productive citizens will self-deport and then re-enter through regular process because not doing so risks permanent banishment with no parole.  If you're remain or enter here illegally you cannot work and if an employer tries to get cute and claim "but they had a (fake) social security card!" they go to prison.  If the E-Verify control number is valid but the credentials bogus then if the government is admitting those with forged credentials and allowing them to work we know where the blame is to be placed for that, and its not on the employer.  If you have a legitimate cause for entry under humanitarian grounds or simply wish to immigrate to the United States and become a citizen via regular channels then you can present yourself and make your case through regular channels.

If you attempt to use violence to unlawfully enter the United States you will be treated as a violent criminal because you are one as proved by your own actionsand whatever level of force that is necessary to prevent completion of your criminal act will be used.


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2022-09-24 08:35 by Karl Denninger
in Health Reform , 349 references
[Comments enabled]  

Its really not very complicated: For all other medical matters than trauma, where the issue is a disorder or disease, the clinician and/or hospital only get paid if they succeed.

If they fail (death is obviously a failure) they get nothing.

How much different would have the virus response been in hospitals if nobody got paid unless you walked out under your own power?

It's very simple and resolves an utterly HUGE number of problems with both the drug companies and the rest of the medical system all at once.

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2022-09-23 07:30 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 589 references
[Comments enabled]  

.... but you ought to.

You're driving down the road and suddenly.... your car stops.

You are sitting at home, there's a nuclear plant a few miles away, and it blows up.

All sorts of nasty things happen.  Some of them happen because of bad luck; it happens.  And some occur because people are stupid.

But some of them happen for other reasons, and figuring out the "why" is important.

I just got back from a fairly long trip in my truck, pulling my trailer.  While there I noted some noise; the tires were getting rather old, they needed replacement anyway, they were truck (as opposed to "SUV") tires, so I figured I'd change them.  No harm, no foul.

I take truck to the tire place and buy 4 new tires.  The old still had some usable tread on them but the cracking was getting a bit alarming, they were seven years old and, while (being a truck) it has a full-size spare it is both dangerous and no fun if you have a blow-out, especially with a trailer on behind you.

On the way home from having the tires changed it becomes blindingly obvious I have a driveline problem; maybe a wheel bearing.  The noise isn't responsive to hard cornering (most of the time a wheel bearing is) nor particularly sensitive to acceleration/deceleration, but is proportional to road speed so that narrows it down; it's not in the engine or accessories and is in the wheel/drive system.

I stick the rear end on stands, chock-and-block the front, put it in gear and it's obvious -- its the differential.

Hmmm... the oil level is good.  The oil was changed about 15-20k miles ago, and I have always used full-synthetic oil of the manufacturer's spec (75w90 GL5.)  The oil looks fine when I drain it, I remove the cover, the gearset looks fine too except that there is a bit of silver on the magnet (that's not good.)  A local shop highly recommended for doing good work on custom trucks (which are cranked up and thus if its not right it'll blow up) can't get to it for two weeks and while their labor price is reasonable the delay is not, so up on stands it goes and I'm pulling it apart looking for the cause, like it or not.  Differentials are not rocket science but they're a bit above things like brakes in that you have lash, preload and engagement to worry about.  Quick inspection of the ring gear and what I can see of the pinion from the bottom shows a gearset in serviceable condition and the wear pattern shows engagement is right up the middle of where it should be.  In other words, at first blush everything looks ok.

So first, just because I'm that sort of guy and am now quite-curious about what's going on, after removing the axles I check the lash; it's in spec, .007.  Pull the chunk out and the pinion preload is also in-spec for a "used" bearing set (which it obviously is) but when checking that, with the chunk out, I can feel some roughness on rotation.

Hmmm..... that's not good up front.

The chunk's two bearings look and feel fine once I have it out.  Normal wear for 100k miles or so is evident as expected but  they're absolutely serviceable and smooth.  Remove pinion nut, drive out pinion, and..... we find the problem staring us in the face.

The damage, once the race is out, is wildly impressive:

Now that'll ruin your whole day -- or, if not caught, your whole differential.  I've seen some pretty-impressive damage over the years in various mechanical things but this, for something that has no collateral damage I can find, takes the cake.  I'd like to know where all the metal is that came off this; it wasn't on the magnet and yet that's a ferrous part (well, its supposed to be) so.... where'd it go?  I know where it didn't go, and that's getting ground up in the gearset because there's no evidence of that anywhere, and you'd certainly expect to find it.

But what I do know is that the lash and preload were in spec when torn down and of the four bearings in the unit only one was destroyed, and only the race.  The rollers on that bearing and the bearing portion itself were all in serviceable condition; the rollers had a lateral visible scratch down low but you couldn't catch a fingernail on it, which given the destruction of the race was quite remarkable and the running surface on the bearing is also serviceable -- but showing some evidence of the possible initiation of spalling on that surface as well if you look real close.

Now look at these two pictures, which are the front (smaller) and rear (larger) pinion bearings.  The rear one you have to destroy (removing the cage and rollers) to get off as you typically can't get a bearing breaker behind it on the pinion when installed, so that's exactly what I did in order to be able to press it off.


Note something verrrry interesting -- there is no Timken marking on the rear bearing itself.

A quick check with my calipers says that there is some variation in the large end of the rollers too; about a thousandth largest to smallest.  I may have to get out the mic and get a lot more-precise with this; I do not know what the acceptable tolerance is on those rollers, nor can I determine easily what sort of variation exists along their length since they're tapered and I do not have the equipment to be able to measure with enough accuracy to be confident in whatever number I was to offer up.

But what appears to be the case is that at the factory, 20 years ago, GM installed into my truck at least one not-matched (e.g. not Timken) bearing with an alleged Timken race which leads me to question whether that race is a counterfeit or is the bearing out of spec which generated point-loading (e.g. the rollers were uneven in size) and destroyed it.  There is no evidence the lash or preload was out of spec due to wear, the gearset itself is fine, all the rest of the bearings and races are serviceable including the axle bearings, the oil that was being used is as-specified by GM, I'm the original owner of the vehicle and nobody has been inside that differential since it left the factory until this happened nor has there ever been evidence of water intrusion or similar into the gear oil.

So why, other than a defective (whether due to not being what it should be or otherwise) did this bearing -- and only this -- fail in that fashion?

Yes, it's a 20 year old truck and thus far out of warranty, never mind the paint looking like crap (thanks for the crappy reformulation that causes this on virtually every vehicle over time, EPA.)  But it only has 100,000 miles on it as its purpose in life is as a tow vehicle and it has been quite trouble-free, all things considered, never mind living away from rust and thus I can still get basically anything apart using nothing more than hand tools so no, there's no explanation to be found in "well, it lived a hard live in the rust belt" because it hasn't and isn't.

Now think about what can happen if this sort of garbage occurs in the nuclear plant next door and, for those who think this is only a "newer" problem well, obviously not.  The truck was assembled at Janesville, a plant that has literally been bulldozed since.

Something to think about.

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