In the week ending June 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 427,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 426,000. The 4-week moving average was 424,000, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average of 426,750.
Oh look, more revisions! The previous number was 422, so they revised up 4,000 and then claimed there was only a 1,000 increase. Nice try guys; the actual increase was 500% of what you reported.
The key point here is that there is absolutely no argument to be made for employment recovery while we're posting +400k claims numbers.
In the meantime the trend of people rolling off the claims rolls continues, but the focus has shifted back to (and should) the initial claims, as the current claims numbers simply do not support any sort of argument that employment is "stable" or "improving."
Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker
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