Private-sector employment increased by 201,000 from February to March on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report released today. The estimated change of employment from January 2011 to February 2011 was revised down to 208,000 from the previously reported increase of 217,000.
So we had a net deceleration from February to March. That's not so good. Note that they backed out 9k from the former report in February too. Remember, these guys claim to have counts from their clients - so why the revisions ADP?
Employment in the goods-producing sector rose 37,000, the fifth consecutive monthly gain. Manufacturing employment rose 37,000, the sixth consecutive monthly gain.
All of the goods-producing gains are in manufacturing. That's positive, although the figures itself aren't that good. We're showing 4x the service-providing increase we are in goods, however, and that's troubling on its face, as many of those service jobs are low-wage.
My estimate for the Friday report is +150k with a 50k error boundary on balance headline, and no change of materiality in the participation rate (the key indicator) which is digging out new sub-basement levels on a monthly basis. +150k is enough to hold the numbers steady on participation, but not move the needle in the positive direction.
Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker
The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.
NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.
The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.
Looking for "The Best of Market Ticker"? Check out Ticker Classics.
Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.
The Market Ticker content may be reproduced or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media or for commercial use.
Submissions or tips on matters of economic or political interest may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.