ADP: +201, February Revised

Posted 2011-03-30 08:25
by Karl Denninger
in Employment

Private-sector employment increased by 201,000 from February to March on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment ReportŽ released today. The estimated change of employment from January 2011 to February 2011 was revised down to 208,000 from the previously reported increase of 217,000.

So we had a net deceleration from February to March. That's not so good. Note that they backed out 9k from the former report in February too. Remember, these guys claim to have counts from their clients - so why the revisions ADP?

Employment in the goods-producing sector rose 37,000, the fifth consecutive monthly gain. Manufacturing employment rose 37,000, the sixth consecutive monthly gain.

All of the goods-producing gains are in manufacturing. That's positive, although the figures itself aren't that good. We're showing 4x the service-providing increase we are in goods, however, and that's troubling on its face, as many of those service jobs are low-wage.

My estimate for the Friday report is +150k with a 50k error boundary on balance headline, and no change of materiality in the participation rate (the key indicator) which is digging out new sub-basement levels on a monthly basis. +150k is enough to hold the numbers steady on participation, but not move the needle in the positive direction.

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