Take #1 and 3 and you've got almost 50% of the electorate's "#1 issue".
But #1 and 3 are the same thing. Both are in fact caused by exactly what I have outlined repeatedly in The Ticker!
In fact, if you look at the last week's five tickers you will see that this theme and meme is right there in front of you. Start at the top at http://market-ticker.denninger.net/ and read down to "Credit Crunch Over - All Clear".
All of them.
This is not "my view." It is a compendium of reported news and lays out for anyone who gives a good damn the outright fraud that has become pervasive in our government and capital markets.
The Republican Party is not only complicit in this fraud they are egging it on at this point, desperate to see it continue through November lest it blow up in their face. Tom Davis is well-aware of this but he doesn't put that out in public in his paper, because should he sound the "siren call" the collapse may occur before the grenade can be passed.
What Tom Davis should understand is this:
The Republicans have no winning position that can be formed from trying to placate people with "happy talk" instead of facing reality. The economic impact of this fraud is going to happen and happy talk will not change the outcome.
If McCain wins (which I seriously doubt) then he will preside over the blast and that will be the end of The Republican party.
If Obama wins the blast will occur in early '09 as the current administration will stop being able to act when the July recess comes along, yet Obama won't have done anything yet before it all comes apart. The Republicans will still get the lion's share of the blame and be a minority party for 40 years, just like they were before the Gingrich Revolution.
If the economy and markets totally come apart before the election (the most likely outcome) then The Republicans are doomed as we will have a filibuster-proof Senate with certainty. If you doubt this outcome, look at consumer sentiment - that is a documented leading indicator of behavior over the next six to twelve months, which just happens to coincide at this point with the period leading to the elections. The sentiment numbers have never been wrong in predicting consumer behavior over the next six to twelve months.
80% of Americans did not participate in or benefit from the fraud and yet ALL AMERICANS are paying for it right now and will in the future.
The ONLY winning position for The Republicans is to force ALL of the fraud out into the open RIGHT NOW and thus force The Democrats into a corner - do they "pile in" or do they try to obfuscate and stall in which case you can pin the tail on THEM as the ones that are ripping off The American Public.
The answer for the Democrats to such a challenge will be to obfuscate, as they are the ones in power in Congress. Chris Dodd and Barney Frank are insanely vulnerable on this point right now, as housing is front-and-center in this crisis but The Republicans control the executive and thus can bring the hammer down on the fraudsters whether Dodd and Frank like it or not.
This means that The Republicans must do all of the following right here and now if they want to win in November:
The 80% of Americans who did not participate in or benefit from the fraud form the voting block that can win this election - if they can be coalesced.
You can only do that by showing that 80% that you are not only stopping it now but will continue to after November has passed.
Either The Republicans take this approach here and now - before the July 4th Recess - or they will lose in November.
This is the only voting block that is both big enough and that Republicans have a way to coalesce which can change the outcome.
Lest you think I'm some Democrat "hack" trying to throw Republican election chances, here is proof that I am not:
Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker
The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.
NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.
The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.
Looking for "The Best of Market Ticker"? Check out Ticker Classics.
Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.
Market Ticker content may be reproduced or excerpted online provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media.
Submissions may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.
Leads on stories of current economic and political interest are always welcome. Our fax tip line is 850-897-9364; please include contact information with your transmission.