ROFL! Buy A Tesla Electric Car? No F*#ing Way
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-02-23 13:10
by Karl Denninger
in Company Specific
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ROFL! Buy A Tesla Electric Car? No F*#ing Way
 

This is enough to make you roll in laughter....

Tesla Motors’ lineup of all-electric vehicles — its existing Roadster, almost certainly its impending Model S, and possibly its future Model X — apparently suffer from a severe limitation that can largely destroy the value of the vehicle. If the battery is ever totally discharged, the owner is left with what Tesla describes as a “brick”: a completely immobile vehicle that cannot be started or even pushed down the street. The only known remedy is for the owner to pay Tesla approximately $40,000 to replace the entire battery. Unlike practically every other modern car problem, neither Tesla’s warranty nor typical car insurance policies provide any protection from this major financial loss.

smiley

The problem stems from the use of lithium batteries, which have a minimum safe discharge level.  If exceeded, when the battery is recharged it can burst and catch fire.  To prevent this lithium cells have a cut-off that activates when the minimum charge level is reached.

R/C car and plane users of these batteries, who tend to abuse the packs more than a bit and sometimes wire 'em up from bare cells without the requisite internal protection in the pack, occasionally find out about this the hard way when their battery pack bursts into flames unexpectedly while being recharged.  If this was to happen to a car it would be very bad, so the circuitry is in there.

Unfortunately what appears to not be in the Tesla is circuitry that cuts off the parasitic loads (things like the clock, etc) when the charge state gets low.  Oh yeah, and I forgot something else -- all batteries self-discharge at a slow rate, so if you leave the car unused long enough, even if they did shed those parasitic loads, the problem could still occur.

This, quite frankly if true, is ridiculous.  Among other things forcing a complete pack replacement instead of allowing individual cell replacements is insane, along with not having protective circuitry that disables parasitic loads relatively quickly as the battery discharges, or isolating individual cells long before they reach "brick" range, extending the time before a catastrophic failure occurs from weeks to several months.  Not being able to leave a car unused for a month or more when people do take trips from time to time is outrageous -- there are things called power failures, circuit breakers do trip and similar events occur, not to mention that you might drive the car to the airport, largely-depleting the battery and then park it there, only to find that two or three weeks later you're utterly screwed.

Nice.

And catastrophic to Tesla's sales and corporate prospects, if this is true and becomes widely known, especially with the $40,000 price tag to fix a "brick."

Disclosure: No position, but my God, this looks like a nice short; 125% Debt-to-equity, no earnings at present, 200m in revenue and only 8% revenue growth....  oh boy..... the only problem is that a LOT of the float is already out short, so squeezes are quite possible and likely would be nasty.

Update: There apparently is some controversy over the original story.  Read it here, and make up your own mind.....

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User Info ROFL! Buy A Tesla Electric Car? No F*#ing Way in forum [Market-Ticker]
Etz
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Shouldn't this be a non-issue with a $20 "battery tender"?

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Otiswild
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I wonder how much of the battery is devoted to 'reserve' to prevent this from happening? I believe the Volt only uses 60-70% of its battery for this and overall durability purposes (presumably it will increase the % of battery used as it wears) to guarantee it for 8 years/100k miles. Tesla may be able to create a larger reservoir with a firmware update to the BMC, but that would impact advertised range somewhat..
Genesis
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No, as apparently the power level required to maintain charge is quite material and it has to go in the charge port. Never mind that a "battery tender" doesn't work so well in places like an airport garage (e.g. if solar there's a small problem with access to the sun, eh?)

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Wis/min
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And the loss is uninsurable.

So you drive to the airport 100 miles away, go on 2 week vacation and return to a bricked auto.

Neat. :-(

Northeaster
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Massachusetts
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"And catastrophic to Tesla's sales and corporate prospects" -

Unfortunately what is not so funny, is we're paying for this failure:

http://www.treasury.gov/ffb/press_releas....

Take a good look at The Treasury's own private little bank, which of course taxpayers are on the hook for, if my math is correct (just for Tesla): $30,835,590.00 total, at various (low) rates.

Chump change in the grand scheme, but still part of the problem, and when it blows up, guess who pays? Solyndra redux, and probably all "connected" as well to the White House or CONgress in some fashion.
Genesis
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Yep. I know.....

**** Obama and his green energy bull**** -- this is Solyndra all over again. The only "good news" is that this time it's gonna **** rich greenies in the ass, as they're the only ones who can afford those cars to begin with.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Chuckmak
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I've never heard of being able to "brick" a car before. That has definitely changed now.

smiley
Tallystick
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Suck, squish, bang, blow mother****ers.
Gamma
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But...but...but, can't I power it off my ipad in an emergency..?

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This stuff we're going through, this is nothing compared to the Middle Ages.
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Mannfm11
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What I am reading is there isn't a viable electric car you use somewhere else besides the golf course. I know those will run 10 miles. I think the better idea, if you want my opinion for a short milage auto is to run a generator on a compressed natural gas engine. Somehow, I would think you could refuel a NG car off your gas meter.

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Genesis
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Quote:
. I think the better idea, if you want my opinion for a short milage auto is to run a generator on a compressed natural gas engine. Somehow, I would think you could refuel a NG car off your gas meter.

The compressor is about $3,000 (approximately the cost and complexity of a dive compressor, as they are roughly the same working pressures.)

If you read Leverage I go through the energy density problems with all-electric vehicles. We don't use liquid hydrocarbons because of some conspiracy, we use them because on an energy density basis there's nothing better available.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Crzymorse
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The governor of Maryland is pushing a program for off-shore wind power (he is going to run for President after Obama's second term). I think we should watch the Europeans and their wind power for ten years and see if the maintenance and repair costs doubles or triples the cost of electricity as these devices need age.

Gee-a wind turbine in the open ocean, wonder whats going to happen to all that salt. I have a feeling it's going make corn ethanol look efficient.
Azengrcat
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They could throw in a 1 hp gasoline generator but that would not be so "green" would it?

smiley

Lowbeyond
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**** that. Hook up a coal burning stove to it and complete the full life cycle circle. lol

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Maybe it was a birdy bread-bomber from the future?!
Asimov
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Lowbeyond: Yea, they can always do that... but we're talking about a place where they don't have a connection to the electric grid availible.

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Digitlman
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Getting conflicting info now: http://hardware.slashdot.org/story/12/02....
Vitaeus
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For all the hotel loads (clock, whatever) why not just add a large size capacitor that charges off the main battery and only when the car is "running", if you leave it long enough for the battery to self-discharge, oh well, but remove the sleeper discharge anyhow.
Superdude
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You guys are ALL WRONG.

GM can just issue a recall when the problem happens down the line on the tax payers expense.
Lowbeyond
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im talking about this

inline

Stick some wheels on it, heh

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Maybe it was a birdy bread-bomber from the future?!
Wis/min
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Lithium batteries self discharge just sitting.

Genesis
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They sure do. They also age just sitting too.

This is one of my problems with the non-replaceable batteries in things like the iPhone and tablets -- when the battery dies, it's a brick, and they die from both cycles AND time.

I've had several laptop batteries die over the years long before the laptop itself became "not useful" to me. Fortunately they were all replaceable, although the cost was a bit "out there."

Two years seems to be about the magic time when capacity drops to the point that problems start.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Craneto
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Looks like a Northstar conversion would fit pretty well once you strip all the battery crap out. The Fiero guys could probably give some good pointers.
Flappingeagle
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Oh hell guys, just duct tape a solar panel on the roof and don't park in the shade. smiley

As for compressor costs, I was under the impression that the one you can use to refill your Honda Nat Gas car at home is around $1000. Am I way off on that?

Flap

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Mari
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Crzymorse wrote:

Quote:
The governor of Maryland is pushing a program for off-shore wind power (he is going to run for President after Obama's second term). I think we should watch the Europeans and their wind power for ten years and see if the maintenance and repair costs doubles or triples the cost of electricity as these devices need age.

Gee-a wind turbine in the open ocean, wonder whats going to happen to all that salt. I have a feeling it's going make corn ethanol look efficient.



O'Malley is an idiot who is trying to out-liberal Obama. But hey, we'll get to pay for those turbines on our electric bills, so we can feel "green" even if they don't work.

The New York Times is touting both O'Malley and Andrew Cuomo as possible presidential candidates in 2016. I don't know about Cuomo but I will warn you NOW about O'Malley - DO NOT ELECT HIM PRESIDENT! He's pushing a very liberal agenda this year to set himself up, is rumored to be planning to appoint himself Senator in the next two years if/when Barbara Mikulski steps down (she was just re-elected in 2010), has created state and federal legislative/congressional districts that would make a world-class jigsaw puzzle creator proud just so he can protect the liberal democrats and try to wrest away any republican representation in the state that he can, etc.

Crzy, I have a friend who lives next door to friends of O'Malley's that he visits sometimes after the Catonsville 4th of July Parade (and lawn chair display, but that's another story). She said he told his friends that he doesn't understand why he gets booed in Catonsville when he's walking the parade route. Really? REALLY? Geesh, he's mentally unhinged if he doesn't have at least some idea!

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