Romney Getting Desperate, Republicans Are Insane
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-02-22 12:46
by Karl Denninger
in Politics
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Romney Getting Desperate, Republicans Are Insane
 

This is purely nuts.

Romney is now proposing to drop the AMT entirely as part of his "political promise grab-bag."

Now don't get me wrong -- the AMT is a bad law and a bad tax.  But Romney seems to think that we can't actually cut spending (because he can add and knows that GDP will go down) but that we should further cut taxes (aka Obama's payroll tax cut.)  In other words, deficits don't matter.

But they do, because credit expansion = debt expansion and we're at the point now where more of this leads to debasement of capital formation, and that trashes both the economy in general and jobs in particular.

Then there's Santorum.  He's gaining fast, mostly because the Republican "base" has determined that he's the "real deal" on social issues.  But he has severe problems in the general election that will become manifest and trash him if he gets the nomination.

One of the more-serious is his 2008 claim that Protestants aren't "real Christians":

We all know that this country was founded on a Judeo-Christian ethic but the Judeo-Christian ethic was a Protestant Judeo-Christian ethic, sure the Catholics had some influence, but this was a Protestant country and the Protestant ethic, mainstream, mainline Protestantism, and of course we look at the shape of mainline Protestantism in this country and it is in shambles, it is gone from the world of Christianity as I see it.[...]

Whether its sensuality of vanity of the famous in America, they are peacocks on display and they have taken their poor behavior and made it fashionable. The corruption of culture, the corruption of manners, the corruption of decency is now on display whether it’s the NBA or whether it’s a rock concert or whether it’s on a movie set.

Oh yeah, the majority of Christians in the US will vote for a guy who says things like that, right?  smiley

The bigger problem is that the Republicans have nobody to offer who is actually (1) conservative, (2) will offer a real path forward on taxes, trade, energy policy, entitlements, the medical system, credit and money along with the budget (all of which are intertwined) and (3) doesn't have his head all the way up his ass on foreign policy.  And none of them will do a damn thing about all the bank frauds.

The unfortunate reality is that with this as the backdrop Santorum makes a pretty damn good showing, despite being outspent by Romney at a monstrous rate. 

If Romney is nominated we have Obama running against himself in two different colors.  If Santorum is nominated he'll get pummeled with the ads going into the election trying to destroy his southern support, and it is likely to succeed (telling a bunch of bible-banging southerners that they're not really Christians is a great way to get their vote.)  Ron Paul can't get the nomination as he won't (a) take on the bank fraud issue, (b) back off his idiotic foreign policy pronouncements, and (c) is still a gold bug, despite being dead wrong there.  Gingrich, after looking like had something going, has faded back along with Paul as the Republican base has decided (for good or bad) that neither is electable.

Now maybe there's a serious third-party challenge here that works, but I'll tell you where it's not -- Gary Johnson.  Let's not forget that he had a whole 1% (or less) among Republicans so exactly how does he get more than 1/2% of the general?  Will he take votes from "independents"?  Maybe, but I'm not buying it and the Republicans already told him to go to Hell (along with leaving him $200k in the hole at the same time.)

A true "maverick" candidate might make a difference, but let's be honest here -- in the general you're trying to sway policy when it comes to running for President as a third party this time around more than win.  That's not say that every candidate doesn't say he intends to and thinks he can win (of course he does or he wouldn't run!) but the facts are, numerically, what they are.

This much I'm sure of -- the silly season is going to be extraordinarily silly. 

But in terms of outcome I don't think there's anything funny headed our way at all.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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Frat
Posts: 1934
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You're on the money on this one, Karl. Your assessment mirrors everything I've seen from the Repugs (spelling intentional) - that is, that they're not serious about either winning the election, OR thinking that their base will revolt. I'm tired - DAMN tired - of them putting of **** RINO candidates and thinking we MUST vote for them because of an 'R' next to their name.

I'm DONE doing that bull****.

I did it with McCain in 2008 (whom I despised MORE than Hillary, and THAT's saying something!). I will NOT compromise my ethics again. I agree another Obama administration could spell the end of the Republic; might as well get it over with then, because if all we're doing is delaying it with someone like Romney, **** it - we're DONE already.

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We're ****ed. Where's Henry Bowman when you need him?
Gantww
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As a protestant, I'm inclined to agree with him about most protestants not being Christians. One of the reasons I don't regularly attend church any more is that I got tired of the love and trust of government from people who are there to worship someone WHO WAS FREAKING MURDERED BY HIS OWN GOVERNMENT. There is a great deal of wisdom in the Bible - you're darned lucky if you find the merest hint of it in any congregation in this country though. Between various hierarchical sect arrangements attempting to flatter government for funding (and jockeying for position themselves), various pastors being scared to offend anyone because they are trying to make their congregation grow, and the very real stupidity that comes out of fear of losing their 501(c)3 bennies, most congregations in this country have been rendered useless before one even accounts for the sort of people who attend there (do we need even bring up the character of the average American - even without considering morality, pursuit of truth or betterment is very far down the list for most of the population). And by calling most churches useless, I'm not saying that they should be acting like an attention ***** (aka Westboro baptist, or any other band of people more concerned with the obedience of others over their own self-improvement), but rather that I see little human improvement coming out of most of them. Truth be told, I've seen better spiritual growth out of people involved in combative martial arts on average than I've seen out of church attendees. They end up being kinder, better, more genuine and more aware human beings, while many of those who attend church regularly seem to be stuck in perpetual adolescence of spirit where they are either attending because it makes them feel good about themselves or because it makes them feel nothing. Maybe it's different outside the buckle of the Bible belt, but the churches here are beyond dead for the most part. You know the tree by the fruit.

I also suspect it will totally screw his popularity, as those whose core beliefs have nothing to do with what's written in the Bible while professing themselves to be Christians tend to be the ones who become most angry when called on it. Calling a turd a turd doesn't win votes when you're running for mayor of the sewer.
Mortgageguymn
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For what (little) it's worth, Santorum is talking about the John Shelby Spong's & Jim Wallis's of modern-day "mainline" Protestant Christianity, who deny what were fundamental aspects of the religion and supplant it with "sanctuary city" rubbish and Gaia-worship. I don't know if he's commented on Chicago's "Father Pfleger", but I assume he'd have the same opinion of the likes of Pfleger. Santorum may or may not be unelectable, but I doubt that many people who are otherwise disposed to voting against Obama would be swayed against Santorum by his characterization of the trends in ultra-liberal mainline Protestant Christianity. Those bible-banging Southern Christians know exactly what Santorum's talking about and most would agree with him. Besides, how can a Bill Still advocate argue against Santorum on the basis of his unelectability?
Templar223
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I see a lot of digital ink from you, Karl, about how silly the Republicans are today.

And I agree, not for piddly reasons like attacking Santorum on his religious beliefs or statements, but because establishment Republicans in particular are no different in their spending patterns than Democrats... it's just a different set of hands on the money distribution.

Have you given up on Obama? I would assume so, but just checking.

John
Obseedian
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We are way past The Silly Season. This is The Stupid Season. As in, "just how many more stupid things can we do to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?"

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Would you give your money to these banks? http://bankimplode.com/list/troubledbank....

“Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything.” - Joseph Stalin
Zzt
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Gant, Mort - Nice posts. Santorum is simply telling the truth and referring to the wacko elements of some sects in religion. Shouldnt fault a guy for telling it like it is.

Oh , wait, .......politicians should never tell the truth.
Mannfm11
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The election will go in the direction the river is flowing. According to one of Prechters studies, if the Dow is above 10,000, which is the rough level it was in November 2009, Obama will win. I believe Bush 41 was the only incumbent that lost with the stock market up from 3 years prior to the election. The people that would decide the fat cats were doing well while the rest of the country was doing bad, the FSA, would vote Democrat if the candidate was a yellow dog.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Carlfiser
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I'm only in my 40's, but try as I might, I can't recall Americans marching on Washington in support of a presidential candidate, but for one.
Snowmizuh
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In theologic circles, 'mainline Protestantism' refers to liberal Protestant denominations--'liberal' in a Christian doctrinal sense, not necessarily corresponding to 'liberal' in our modern political vernacular. Mainline Protestants often reject some or all of the fundamental truth-claims of the Christian faith: that Jesus really died and was raised on the third day, the Virgin birth, all the miracles that Jesus performed, etc. They instead emphasize a 'social gospel': care for the poor, 'inclusiveness', etc...--resulting in a sort of 'Christless Christianity' (B.B. Warfield). Of course, these are important things that the Church does, but mainline Protestant churches do so at the expense or outright rejection of the Great Commission (announcing the Gospel to the World) and the key features of the Church (rightly preaching the Word of God and properly administering the Sacraments of Holy Communion and Baptism).

Tl;dr version: from the context, I don't think he was condeming all Protestants. I think he was calling out Protestant groups that are close to (or already in a state of) apostasy. Many American conservative Protestants (aka 'Evangelicals'), would agree with him, I believe.

For a good discussion and critique of 'mainline American Protestantism' (and to see how is contrasted with traditional, orthodox, 'Reformed' Protestantism), see writings by 'the Lion of Princeton', B.B. Warfield. For example: Perfectionism - Articles reprinted from periodicals, etc. edited by Ethelbert Dudley Warfield, William Park Armstrong, and Caspar Wistar Hodge. (1931) New York : Oxford University Press.

Rdaniels
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Jeb Bush

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I wouldn't be so pessimistic if it wasn't so hopeless.
Themortgagedude
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If Pawlenty had held out till now and stepped forward there would be a mass exodus from everyone to him. Not sure how long it would last but if someone anyone steps forward the R's will support them.

That's how bad the choice is.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Wis/min
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Maybe it's time to join the "vote for Obama and get on with the reset" contingent.

The "stupid party" is hard at work.

Nelstomlinson
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I'm one of those bible-banging Christians. Santorum is just saying what most Christians are saying, including many of the Christians who are leaving the main-line, formerly Christian churches Santorum was talking about. In my understanding of what he said, Santorum is talking about churches which want to ordain homosexual clergy, perform same-sex marriages, have the government take over their charity obligations, and so on. The people who are going to be offended by his comments weren't going to vote for him anyway - they're liberals who will be choosing between Romney and Obama.

Edited to add that Snowmizuh explained all this far more informatively.

Hapablap21
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Of all the candidates out there right now, Santorum scares me the most. He is at least as fiscally liberal as Obama and Romney - early in the race he was bragging about his lead role in Medicare part D - and is very upfront and honest about his own distaste for personal freedom and states rights. Pull together big government conservatism with a dislike of freedom and a morality and religion based purpose woven through all of it, and you get someone that I think could be very worrisome as a national leader with government police and military power at his fingertips.

If your standards are "(1) conservative, (2) will offer a real path forward on taxes, trade, energy policy, entitlements, the medical system, credit and money along with the budget (all of which are intertwined) and (3) doesn't have his head all the way up his ass on foreign policy", Santorum is FAR worse than anyone else running. Including Obama.

ETA: I am also a "bible banging (protestant) Christian", and I did not at all interpret his comments in so kind a light. In my mind - and maybe I'm just projecting - "main line protestants" are the same as "evangelical christians". If he wants to chastise the Episcopalian church, he should go ahead and call them out by name.

Zzt
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Wis - Be careful what you ask for............you may get it.

I dont want a reset led by liberal thought.
Wis/min
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I would rather abstain than vote for Obama.

It just makes me sick that the Republican party is so clueless.
Gantww
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I wasn't saying I endorsed him, mind you. I think there should be a heck of a wide space between church and state. The church shouldn't be in the business of coercion. Entanglement with the state will put it in this business. It's like I always try to remind my fundie, pro-theocracy friends, "a state that can outlaw homosexuality or abortion is also strong enough to MANDATE them". It's just that in this particular case, he happened to hit the nail on the head pretty cleanly. Sort of like something Rosie O'Donnell said in the last year or so that I agreed with to such a degree that I had to shake my head in disbelief.

As for mentioning denominations by name, that will end up letting far too many off the hook. You mention the Episcopalian church, which is a big offender. Yet there are others, all of which would doubtless be taken as things he supports were he not to explicitly mention them. This seems to be a case of him being a politician and little more. He's being deliberately vague to some degree and we're interpreting his comments in whatever way makes us most comfortable. That's what politicians do, so I don't fault him for that. He has plenty of other issues with which I can find fault anyway.
Steinbeck
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The way I see it, voting Dem or Repub is just throwing away your vote (or agreeing to more ass raping.) Not voting is about the same.

So, regardless if a third-party candidate has a chance or not; I'm going for that candidate. I would rather put my vote, money, etc... into something I believe in rather than try and pick the "lesser of two evils".

Enough people think that way and we might get the 100th monkey and actually get the right person for the job.
Geschrei
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For all his many flaws (and Karl has enumerated them many times), Paul is still the only GOP candidate who will even turn .gov in the direction of fiscal responsibility and individual liberty. Not that he'd likely get us very far, but at least he wouldn't continue down the path to total destruction at a speed at or greater than we are currently traveling.

That said, he doesn't stand a prayer of getting the nomination, although not for the reasons Karl mentioned above.

The question remains for me, do I 'throw away my vote' on a doomed third party candidate that might share some of my views - or should I give in to my growing temptation to officially renounce my voter registration and be done with the whole foolish process once and for all?

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“The danger is not that a particular class is unfit to govern. Every class is unfit to govern.”

Lord Acton (1834 - 1902)
Hapablap21
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I'm starting to lean that way too. And honestly, I don't get what the huge deal is with forcing congress to declare a war before we start fighting it. They have been trying to abdicate their constitutional responsibilities for the last 100 years, I'd be refreshed to see a president force those responsibilities back down their throats.
Smacktle
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Repukes. Nuff said.

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The faults of the burglar are the qualities of the financier.
- George Bernard Shaw
Pietertvl
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Its time (indeed, long overdue) to launch a NoneOfTheAbove "party".

If everyone wrote in NOTA, and it garnered 20% or more of the total vote count, think of the message that would convey.

At the very least, it would likely deny both parties the chance to claim a majority of national support and exploit the word "mandate".

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"All the perplexities, confusion and distresses in America arise not from defects in the constitution or confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, as much from downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit, and circulation." ~ John Adams

Superdude
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I am not voting. I don't want to legitimize a fraudulent election. (From Illinois)
Arius
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California/USA
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Your Santorum quote is not extreme or incorrect. I left a Protestant church fifty years ago for what he describes. His second paragraph is very important to dispassionately discuss; there is much truth in it.
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