Philly Fed: Revisions Galore!
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-01-19 10:12
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors
Ignore this thread
Philly Fed: Revisions Galore!
 

Heh, what's this crap?

Indicators Suggest Continued Growth The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, edged up slightly from a revised reading of 6.8 in December to 7.3 in January.* The demand for manufactured goods showed continued growth this month: The new orders index remained positive for the fourth consecutive month but declined from a revised reading of 10.7 in December to 6.9 this month. The shipments index also remained positive but fell 3 points. The indexes for both delivery times and unfilled orders recorded slightly negative readings this month.

See that pretty asterisk?  There were big revisions to the previous months, making comparisons more than a bit difficult if you simply look at the previous month's numbers.  Fortunately, they changed the previous numbers in this release's table.

The only change I find particularly interesting is in the employee workweek, which moved up from 2.8 to 5.0 -- a material change.  The other parts of the index were mixed or actually declined -- both new orders and shipments declined although remaining positive, and unfilled orders actually went negative, implying that there is no backlog of materiality.

So yes, last month was ok but the forward indications do not jive -- at all -- with the hopium displayed in the six-month forward expectations.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives
Archive Access
Get Adobe Flash player





Blogtalk 3:30 CT Mondays
Items To Look At


Discuss The Capital Markets along with daily technical analysis with our Gold Donor program.

Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker

Links and Blogroll
Our policy on reciprocal links: Send us an email with your information and why you think your blog or news site would make a good addition - in most cases reciprocal link requests will be granted.
Seeking Alpha Certified
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Looking for "The Best of Market Ticker"? Check out
Ticker Classics.

Visit the forum to discuss this and other investing-related topics; see the FAQ on the forum for information about Gold Donor status including access to our technical analysis video server.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

Market Ticker content may be reproduced or excerpted online provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media.

Submissions may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Leads on stories of current economic and political interest are always welcome. Our fax tip line is 850-897-9364; please include contact information with your transmission.

 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
User Info Philly Fed: Revisions Galore! in forum [Market-Ticker]
Mannfm11
Posts: 3530
Incept: 2009-02-28
Gold
DFW, Tx
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Yeah, we have had 3 Monday holidays in the last 4 weeks. Think they might have had to make up for an off day?

----------
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Blutach
Posts: 21
Incept: 2011-12-29

Oak Brook, IL
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
...and the NASDAQ makes all-time record highs in the worst economic climate since the Great Depression. You really can't make this **** up.

----------
Bill Still 2012!
Widgeon
Posts: 13481
Incept: 2007-08-30
Green
Region formerly known as the United States
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
NASDAQ all time record high? When? That was March 1999.

It's down over 40% since then.

Blutach
Posts: 21
Incept: 2011-12-29

Oak Brook, IL
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
@Widgeon

My bad, I meant to say 10-year highs

----------
Bill Still 2012!
Widgeon
Posts: 13481
Incept: 2007-08-30
Green
Region formerly known as the United States
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
... otherwise I agree ... aren't HFT's Terrific!
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ