The Wolf The Republicans Just Let In The Room
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-08-01 09:04
by Karl Denninger
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The Wolf The Republicans Just Let In The Room
 

I hope you like higher taxes.

Much higher taxes.

Last night I couldn't figure out at first blush how Boehner/Reid managed to get their "numbers" to work.  Well, when I looked at it again this morning, it snapped into focus, along with a backhanded comment and, yes, math.

Ok, ok, not really math.  It was just a calendar.

See, the Bush Tax Cuts and the FICA holiday expire at or before the end of 2012.  And guess who's going to be President then - either having just been re-elected or much worse, as a lame duck?

That's right - Obama.

So Republicans, and most-importantly "Tea Partiers" - how many of you want to keep your jobs?  Because if you do, you had damn well better not allow this piece of crap from Reid/Boehner to pass!  If this bill passes then every Republican who votes for it needs to face a primary challenge and every Democrat needs to be ejected from office.

In other words, we have to eat our peas, and we have to do it now.  The history on this path is clear: Whenever the Congress claims they will both cut spending and raise taxes, the tax increases always happen but the spending cuts never do.

We cannot fix what ails our economy in terms of artificial economic support which cannot last forever until and unless we balance the Federal budget.  It's really that simple, although nobody wants to say it.  The economy has undergone a roughly 10-12% artificial "stimulus" from deficit spending over the last three years and yet as time has gone on the impact of this in GDP reports has dissipated but not only does the debt remain the deficits are remaining too!

This is the slippage that inevitably comes from longer-term stimulative efforts.  "Pump priming" can work because of the surprise factor - it causes people to alter behavior.  But once it becomes "not a surprise" then the behavior is no longer altered, it's now ingrained and the artificial support means that people no longer have a desire to strive forward - they instead suck on the offered "free tit" and get fat.

For those who think I was too subtle up above, let's spell it out: The Bush Tax cuts, and the FICA cut, both will expire at the end of 2012.  President Obama, and he will be President on that day, will veto any attempt to extend them.

In fact, the Reid/Boehner "deficit reduction" plan that was "agreed to" last night expressly expects the expiration of all of these cuts, as does the CBO's scoring.

How do I know this?  This little line in the CBO ditty:

As requested by the House and Senate leadership, CBO also calculated the net budgetary impact of the plans if the discretionary savings are measured relative to CBO’s January baseline projections.

The CBO's January baseline included expiration of both the FICA credit and the Bush Tax Cuts, as the CBO as a general rule, unless instructed otherwise, uses the state of the current law to produce it's baseline scenarios - not "what if" possible changes.

For those who say there are "no revenues" in this plan, and that there is no plan to "raise taxes", you're lying.  There are monstrous revenues (tax increases) starting in January of 2013 - depending on who's numbers you use they amount to somewhere around $400 billion annually.  Despite this we're still going to add close to $10 trillion in new debt to the system over the next ten years under the "Boehner/Reid" plan because there are also no actual spending decreases!

Boehner is a lying sack of used dogfood.

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User Info The Wolf The Republicans Just Let In The Room in forum [Market-Ticker]
Dashingdwl
Posts: 9752
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los angeles
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I'm soooooo shocked... how could our elected reps betray us?

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When you are hard and disciplined, you can be principled. People fear you because they have no leverage against you. It's the truest form of Liberty.
Fraudster
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Silver
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I was pointing out last night that this was the likely outcome from our leaders and got cried down. Go figure.

smiley

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Joejohns
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Banned
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........and they will use the flag and security to raise taxes. We must defeat those terrorists.

Just so you are ready for it.

There are no savings from Iraq and AF. After all we can't give up all our gains.

A state of constant war is a wet dream that even these corrupt aholes probably can't believe the j6p has swallowed.

Ssimon2000
Posts: 9
Incept: 2009-12-21

OK
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I was trying to explain this to my wife and 21-yo son last night after the President announced the "deal" was done. We are in for a world of hurt, and it seems like everyone has blindfolds on, waiting to eat this crap. I am watching the news closely today, in hopes that more than a few members of Congress wake up. At this point I don't care if they vote against it for conservative principles (ie, does nothing to curb spending) or liberal (ie, no "revenue" increases), just as long as this thing does not make it to the president's desk.
Twainfan
Posts: 147
Incept: 2010-12-01

Minnesota
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The BBA is also DOA... it'll never pass the senate.

Hopefully, by 2013 I'll be in a better position to reduce my tax exposure.

I doubt there's any chance that Boehner or McConnell or Graham or McCain will ever be voted out... they'll just retire eventually. I'm hoping the sheeple prove me wrong but I'm not holding my breath.
Crzymorse
Posts: 1182
Incept: 2010-06-25

Maryland
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But we get another blue ribbon committee. Boehner and republcians have alot of explaining to do before tomorrow (why sell out this badly). Things must be much worse then we are led to believe. Maybe we are just going to take this to the wall we hope never comes.



Mo
Posts: 12158
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Silver
Pa.
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Even the British tabloids have it figured out:

Middle classes to be hit by tax increase by the back door: Obama and Boehner face furious backlash from their own parties as last minute debt deal is slammed a 'fudge'
Democrats fear further spending cuts while Republicans say deal is just a means of raising taxes at a later stage by joint committee
Frantic behind the scenes lobbying expected to get lawmakers on the fringes of both parties to support deal
Experts fear credit rating will still be downgraded
Furious public backlash on Twitter
Two sides last night agreed last minute deal to avoid federal default
Obama: Debt deal will end crisis and remove cloud over the economy
Agreement will cut about $1trillion over 10 years
Another $1.2trillion in spending would be cut automatically if a joint committee fails to find at least that much in budget savings

By Paul Bentley and John Stevens

Last updated at 2:21 PM on 1st August 2011


Quote:
President Barack Obama awoke today to furious reaction to his last minute debt deal, with experts slamming the agreement as a cruel means of hitting middle classes with tax hikes 'through the back door'.

The President and congressional leaders last night finally announced an agreement on emergency legislation to avert the nation's first-ever financial default.

But while the dramatic resolution briefly lifted a cloud that had threatened the still-fragile economic recovery, critics said in the long run the middle classes would bear the brunt of the country's massive debt, with increased taxes set to cover for the White House's reluctance to cut public spending...


More: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-....

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Jono
Posts: 110
Incept: 2011-05-25


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Lead down the rosey garden path only to get BUTT****ED AGAIN!
Mortgageguymn
Posts: 1561
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Green
North Coast
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I don't think the wording of the BBA has even been agreed upon. By the time Hairy Roid is done with it, it might be much worse than nothing. I know that Karl still wants us to save the republic rather than just focus on how to fare less badly than everyone else, but there is a point where looking around at my fellow citizens who elect these buffoons, it's tempting to just save **** 'em and try to see if there is any way to "play" the coming demise. Unfortunately, there isn't. So I'm left with trying to convince Al Franken to vote for a balanced budget amendment.

Hasten The Demise: OBAMA 2012
Mortgageguymn
Posts: 1561
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Green
North Coast
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"Lead down the rosey garden path only to get BUTT****ED AGAIN!"

Without even getting the benefit of the ol' reach-around.
Genesis
Posts: 130662
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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And no KY.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Sangell
Posts: 379
Incept: 2009-08-16

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The whole deal looks to be nothing more than an effort to postpone ANY economic
reality until after Obama's re-election campaign and then to create a 'poison pill' for whoever takes office in Jan. 2013. They will face A. tax hikes B. an increase in the debt ceiling C. the paltry fiscal cuts this deal actually requires.
Themortgagedude
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saint louis
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I'm ok with taxes reverting to the old rates. This was my contention all along. That they were going to. That's why I recommended that we cut 5% from current spending and tell the Democrats to pound sand. Take it or not.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Mattytrader
Posts: 40
Incept: 2010-08-18

NY/NJ
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and market up a whopping 75pts..lol....easiest sell into a "rally" in a long time.. when are the people in this country going to get it...oh..thats right.. never...

"but... but... everything is going to be ok... they said so"
Drench
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BreakingNews: White House adviser Plouffe tells NBC News he expects debt deal to pass Senate, House

BreakingNews: White House adviser tells NBC News that it is 'not true' that raising taxes in 2nd phase of deficit deal is impossible
Sangell
Posts: 379
Incept: 2009-08-16

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The BBA is a sham. The Democrats will give a vote to the GOP on this. Hell, many of the Democrats will vote for it, it's a 'freebie'. They can then tie it up in state legislatures for years and we don't have that long.
Amack
Posts: 303
Incept: 2008-11-26
Green
food exporting nation
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drench,

the cancellation of a cut will not be a raise. just like decreasing an increase is a cut. smoke, mirror. plouffe hopes to be on the advisory board of morgan by that time, reaping his reward.

Reason: typo
Bertdilbert
Posts: 2650
Incept: 2008-12-22
Gold
CA
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That was a ton of political energy to accomplish nothing.

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Samadams
Posts: 589
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Somewhere in TX
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I've been telling my clients (I'm an Estate Planning attorney) to expect the lifetime exemption to go back down to $1 million and the highest Estate/Gift Tax marginal rate to go back up to 55% from 35% now - because that is the law at the present time. KD, you're right, there's simply no way that Obama will sign on to any extension of the Bush cuts again. He'll either be a very vindictive lame duck, or an even more arrogant victor with a "mandate" (even if he wins by 1 vote) who doesn't feel the need to compromise. No possible way that an extension will occur in the months leading up to the election, it'd so***** off his liberal base that it'd guarantee an election loss when a bunch of them stay home.

Here's a question for you, Karl: is now a good time to go short the market? Anyone not born yesterday knew that some kind of compromise was coming, and the futures were up real big...and now the market isn't. The euphoria from this deal is very short-lived, and so long as it actually passes both houses then we'll be back to the*****-poor employment, spending and utilization rates that have been popping up all over the place. In short, back to the Depression that we entered 3 years ago. Even with the debt limit increase nearly a done deal, who's going to buy the bonds? Barring QE 3, we might be facing a failed auction at some point, and if "they" do something that is QE 3 (whether by that name or another), then that points to a default via inflation. Either way, as you have so eloquently said over the years, "we're ****ed" (and without the benefits of Kentucky Jelly). So the real question is, do you think that the stock markets will tank in the next few months?

Maxpower
Posts: 40
Incept: 2011-06-06

Mexico
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finally the malevolent people have won.


they have taken the USA down a path that will not be repairable. it is technically finished just the accounting isn't done.

and for what? ...to assuage their envy. their lust for domination.

I have lost any optimism that I had for the congress to do something meaningful. by the time the 2012 elections are complete it will not matter ..the fiscal situation of the USA will rival Greece and nothing short of civil war will change the decline. I think the riots in Greece will seem tame.
Drench
Posts: 28631
Incept: 2009-11-10
Green
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Some hope! If anyone can **** this up, it's Biden.

BreakingNews: RT @frankthorpNBC: Vice President Biden just announced he is meeting with Senate and House Democratic members in their respective meetin ...
Degaston
Posts: 2264
Incept: 2007-07-27
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3/17/2013: Bullish on nothing - 100 percent in cash.
Mortgageguymn
Posts: 1561
Incept: 2009-03-09
Green
North Coast
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Allen West & Paul Ryan are reportedly on board with this. Ryan's no surprise - greasy smarmy little bastard that he is, but West is a major disappointment.

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/174649....

Time to e-mail my congressman - Keith Ellison - and tell him to reject this bill on account of it not raising the top federal tax rate to 98%. ;-)
Mattytrader
Posts: 40
Incept: 2010-08-18

NY/NJ
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did i say up 75?? well now its down 75... put that in your peace pipe and smoke it!!
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