Claims: Once Again, They Suck
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-06-09 08:40
by Karl Denninger
in Employment
Ignore this thread
Claims: Once Again, They Suck
 

More crap reports this morning....

In the week ending June 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 427,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 426,000. The 4-week moving average was 424,000, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average of 426,750.

Oh look, more revisions!  The previous number was 422, so they revised up 4,000 and then claimed there was only a 1,000 increase.  Nice try guys; the actual increase was 500% of what you reported.

The key point here is that there is absolutely no argument to be made for employment recovery while we're posting +400k claims numbers.

In the meantime the trend of people rolling off the claims rolls continues, but the focus has shifted back to (and should) the initial claims, as the current claims numbers simply do not support any sort of argument that employment is "stable" or "improving."

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User Info Claims: Once Again, They Suck in forum [Market-Ticker]
Digitlman
Posts: 328
Incept: 2011-03-04

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And the futures are up.

#winning!
Crimsonavenger1
Posts: 44
Incept: 2009-11-23

Charlotte
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The Circle Jerks had it right in Repo Man - we all gotta duck when the **** hits the fan.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68LAbJtd4....
Chuckstermd
Posts: 34
Incept: 2011-02-22

baltimore
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Rachel Maddow was on Letterman last night spewing her crap about how Obama saved millions of jobs with the auto bailout, etc.

I nearly puked and had to change the channel. What the hell does this woman smoke?

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Change? Not until we change the people in Congress with people who understand how to run a government of the people, by the people and for the people.
Genesis
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Admin A True American Patriot!
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Obama's pole.

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Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
1lumpor2
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This weeks number will be revised up to. But don't worry it's just a bump in the road to recovery, and by recovery I mean depression.

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-- Done
Smacktle
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Lie long enough and it becomes a truth of sorts.

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Dashingdwl
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los angeles
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QE3,4,5... Mr. Wall St / Phree Market loves a bailout.

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#unexpected

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Fraudster
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Actually Gen that is not possible.

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Steelpiston71
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"they revised up 4,000 and then claimed there was only a 1,000 increase. Nice try guys; the actual increase was 500% of what you reported."

If the increase would have been 5k without revisions, instead of 1k with revisions, the pct increase would be 400% (ex, 2k is a 100% increase from 1k, 3k is a 200% increase from 1k, ..., 5k is a 400% increase from 1k), not 500%?

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"We have resolution authority under Frank/Dodd... How about we USE IT?" Karl Denninger, 10/07/10 on the Dylan Ratigan Show, MSNBC.
Lenguado
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Correct me if I'm wrong - but wasn't last week a 4 day week?!?!?!?

Using their usual standard calculations and adjustments, shouldn't the numbers have been much better???

So, based on that, I presume that last week was actually MUCH WORSE than this report indicates. I would also guess that next week they will "seasonally adjust" the number up significantly for the Holiday last Monday.

And so it goes.....
smiley

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I just realized... they aren't saying, "Keynesian Economics"
they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone!
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Spanktron9
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Steel-

Nope. Reread what KD wrote. He posted correctly. "The real increase was 500% of what you reported." You read it as "a 500% increase."

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Mannfm11
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Yeah steel, 5000 is 500% of 1000.

Not once have I seen the previous weeks number decreased in the over 2 years I have been continuously following this number. Not once. Every prior week has been revised upward and the reported number has been positive, meaning better than it actually was. Being we are looking at a statistical estimate, the apple would have to fall on the other side of the fence 50% of the time unless there was intentional misreporting. The odds of this happening every week is about the same as picking 10 winners at the local horse track. 1 week would be 50%, 2 weeks 25%, 3 weeks 12.5%, 4 weeks 6.25%, 5 weeks 3.125%...........104 weeks?

The big thing is claims are still 100,000 too high for a good economy. 100,000 times 52 is 5.2 million. 5.2 million more people a year than normal have to find another job to make the game go sideways or up, that is add jobs at a normal pace that brings the unemployment rate down.

We did get a month or so where the number was under 400,000. Seems we wandered in the 380K range for awhile, but then again, the real number was always a few thousand higher than the reported number. I suspect there were businesses buying into the signals that Wall Street sent that we had a recovery coming and they held onto their workers longer than they would have. Then we saw the week where the number went to something over 450,000, most likely the week after Easter. This was the throwing in the towel.

I know a guy who works at Home Depot. He tells me they are firing employees for next to nothing, that they are pushing the sales per employee number to the max. You get a bitchy customer, you have a good chance of being fired, even if the guy is trying to scam the store. In a lot of cases, he says the inventory is being mismanaged, where they are out of goods. The noose is getting tight.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Steelpiston71
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I get it, the increase word threw me off in that context.

Seems strange to say that if 1000 was reported correctly with no increase amount, one could accruately say that the 'increase' was 100% of what was reported, lol.

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"We have resolution authority under Frank/Dodd... How about we USE IT?" Karl Denninger, 10/07/10 on the Dylan Ratigan Show, MSNBC.
Susanjbear
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And in the meantime, here in Los Angeles county, we are seeing local business after local business fail.

What *on earth* makes a furniture store think it will succeed when the the three that preceded it went belly up?

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Susan
Mortgageguymn
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But it's organic furniture...
Ls2gto
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This can't be true. Most of us will now need to work until we are 80+ years old before we retire, unemployment must DECREASE in order to accept the ever growing work force!!!!

Or, we're screwed..........
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