Shouldn't we be at Tickercon 1 if we are a week..maybe two..from a major event? I don't know. Maybe I just don't understand the the levels.

Tickercon 2......Cue The Monkey!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Question: does anybody have any theories as to the method(s) that TPTB will use in their almost certain attempt to kick the can down the road one more time past the election?

The general tone of people here on the Tickerforum is that the meltdown is imminent and may happen as soon as a few weeks down the road. Since last summer (2011), my thesis has been that the meltdown would almost definitely happen sometime between February 2012 and February 2013, so clearly I'm with the majority.

However, I've been so continuously amazed by the government's ability to pretend and distract people from the fact that we've reached our Wiley E. Coyote moment, I'm forced to ask if anyone can see a scenario that delays things more than 6 or 8 months down the road.

I can see them TRYING, but trying and succeeding are two different things.

I suspect the attempt would come from some element of trying to bail out Spanish banks. The problem is that if Greece walks all that goes up in smoke.

Karl - thank you for your answer...

Genesis wrote..

. . . trying to bail out Spanish banks. The problem is that if Greece walks all that goes up in smoke.

From MSM in the US and supposedly reputable foreign media sources, I get the impression that Greece "walking" is not a foregone conclusion - many voters appear to be leaning towards voting against those wanting to "walk" (obviously, different polls by different organization at different times report different results).

If Greece doesn't "walk", do you have a feel about how long a bailout of Spain is likely to keep the Eurozone situation from an irretrievable blow-up - weeks, months, a year or more?

Weeks to months.

But my baseline scenario is that Greece IS going to walk or worse, try to not walk but blow sky-high before the end of the year.

Walking is actually the LEAST destructive outcome for Greece right now. Worse is not doing so, sucking down more money from the EFSF/ECB/Trokia/IMF and then blowing up anyway.

The problem is more likely whether anyone will be able to form a majority Government that has legitimacy whoever gets the most votes

Genesis wrote..

Walking is actually the LEAST destructive outcome for Greece . . .

I understand, but I'm assuming that, at least in the short-to-medium term, it is the WORST outcome from the POV of the rest of the Eurozone wanting to sustain the impression that the Euro is a viable, stable currency that benefits the Eurozone as a whole.

fwiw


VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - June 7, 2012) - Fortress Paper Ltd. ("Fortress Paper" or the "Corporation") (TSX:FTP), announces that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Landqart AG, a leading manufacturer of banknote and security papers, has had a material banknote order reinstated. This order was unexpectedly suspended in the fourth quarter of 2011 which negatively impacted the financial results of Landqart's operations in the first half of 2012.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/material-b....

Ulster,

My money is on DM. Germany is about to take their ball and go home.

Steinbeck: You are correct, sir.

The stock market said it is all OK so it is now Tickercon 2. I don't see the realities that this is based on. Was the previous Tickercon 1 a bad call? It seems it should have a bit of substance backing every number change. I am with Jmanng on questioning this.

Where's the beef?

TickerCon is based on the odds of a MAJOR economic collapse. Odds are not a prediction, they are simply the probability of it happening soon.

Going to 1 was NOT a bad call because the odds DEFINITELY increased.

I have a feeling it's going back to 1 quite soon too.

+1 Asi

Very accurate summation, Asi.

Asi,

I understand what you said very well, but I believe the rational beings are asking for the substance that the call is changing on. Going to 1 was a not a bad call based on 'what' and why was it wrong , 'what' substancially changed?

Odds are used to predict. That is what statistical analysis does.

I did explain it -- I think we have another couple of weeks, until the Greek elections. There's a possibility we have longer, but the extension made the change appropriate as holding it at "1" is not appropriate if there is an expected length of time before it goes "boom"

TPTB always have the propaganda and media ace in the hole...

How much warning did we get before Lehman?

Add in U.S. Government complicity (Fascism) and you have the makings of yet another cluster****...

Does anyone here trust OUR government's numbers? I sure as hell don't...

That is a sad indictment of what used to be the greatest democratic experiment on the planet.

America.

Can America survive...?

Seems to me that world citizens are not that interested in individualism and freedom of mind.

America was founded on freedom...all around.

If we forget that, we will pay the price of bondage.

Quote:

How much warning did we get before Lehman?

That's a really good point, Yaz. My best answer would be that Bear Stearns should've served as a warning klaxon for every ship headed toward the reef then and now. Back the, there was a chance to turn away to safer waters... now, they're surrounded by reef.

Karl, do you think the Greek elections this weekend merit Tickercon 1? After watching Bill Still's latest and hearing some static about bank runs in Italy, etc., is this the time to pull cash and keep it on hand? This caught my attention too: from survivalblog.com '20 Reasons Why America's Next Bank Holiday Will Be a Nightmare' http://www.survivalblog.com/2012/06/20-r....

Maybe.

I'm considering it and may move it tomorrow.

Quote:

Syriza says Greece wants to remain in the eurozone but not if it means hacking away at generous public benefits and jobs. The New Democracy party, which had ruled Greece off and on with Socialist PASOK for the past 40 years, has agreed to the severe cuts demanded by eurozone leaders.

According to newspaper polls June 4, Syriza had 31.5% of the vote, and New Democracy was at 25.5%.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story....

ETA: brief background on the Greek election process: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-14....

Quote:

How much warning did we get before Lehman?

Lehman was a strong case in Q3 2007 (along with Bear and Merrill), but was a done deal by Bear Sterns.

I was convinced they would be bailed out, though, and closed my shorts way too early. Oh well, I made up for that shortly thereafter, but at least wasn't short for the financial short selling ban. Never seen a short squeeze like that in my life. Yikes.

Well, except maybe Volkswagen. Now that **** was crazy.

I keep checking to see if it's changed.

Getting my popcorn ready for an interesting weekend.