| User Info
| Whistlin' This Evening.... (CSCO) in forum [Market-Ticker]
|
Throxxofvron
Posts: 10338
Incept: 2009-02-17
Hyper-Speculative Psycho-Facsistic Parabolic Blow-Off
|
After the Bell:
----------
DIONYSUS: " Thou hast no knowledge of the life thou art leading; thy very existence is now a mystery to thee. " -from 'The Bacchantes' By Euripides “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” -George Orwell
|
Bohemian
Posts: 9658
Incept: 2010-07-27
California
|
Bloop, there goes the $NDX. Knew that was coming.
----------
"The politicians are put there to give you the idea you have freedom of choice. You don't. You have no choice; you have owners. They own you. They own everything." - George Carlin
|
Fisticuffs
Posts: 1086
Incept: 2007-07-28
|
So when is it time to short restaurant stocks like Pnra...
----------
B(ern)ank(e)
|
Curbyourrisk
Posts: 3596
Incept: 2008-08-19
Farmingdale, NY
|
But....but...but...Cramer said......
----------
Time is up.
I hate to burst your bubble, but there is no Santa Claus, the tooth fairy does not exist and American justice does not involve the courts.
|
Throxxofvron
Posts: 10338
Incept: 2009-02-17
Hyper-Speculative Psycho-Facsistic Parabolic Blow-Off
|
I can't wait for the day I come across Jim Cramer broke and panhandling in the street.
I'm gonna light his ass on fire -and then try to put him out with a ****ing tire iron.
----------
DIONYSUS: " Thou hast no knowledge of the life thou art leading; thy very existence is now a mystery to thee. " -from 'The Bacchantes' By Euripides “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” -George Orwell
|
Vmooper
Posts: 1826
Incept: 2007-11-30
Bailout ville
|
Fisticuffs, probably when they aren't packed from 9:00am till 2:00pm and selling out of all their daily specials during dinner. That place can survive on pharmaceutical reps meeting with their bosses alone and the take out to Dr.'s they leave with. If their costs go up, believe me, they can pass them on. They are adding a drive through to the one by my house. First I've ever seen. I'd short Apple before I short them. As long as white collar unemployment is up and they have Wi Fi this place is they will be everyones temporary interview/office space.
Also, peg ratio is only 1.5 ish and forward P/E of under 22 isn't that crazy. CRM's numbers are crazy.
----------
"If you don't know where you are going, speeding up is not the answer." -Jeff Macke
"If you bail out everyone, nobody gets bailed out." -Jeff Macke
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable." -JFK
|
Bluis
Posts: 2
Incept: 2010-11-07
California
|
I've been following the margin compression discussion for quite some time. Everybody is complaining about high commodity prices and I often read and hear complaints of high costs for store bought eggs, milk, cheese, butter, etc. My family has had a dairy farm for 17 years we've never seen anything like the last 3 years before. 15 years of equity were wiped out in the last 2.5 years and it's _industry_wide_.
I swear Karl is right about depressions being caused by margin compression. You guys complain milk, cheese, butter is too expensive and kraft and dean foods are seeing their profits go up in smoke due to high milk prices. Then how come the dairy industry can't even come close to breaking even for the last 2.5 years up to the present??? Corn@$6/bu soybeans>$13!!! Us dairyman are getting paid a pretty high price right now and are still short 20% from break-even!!! We need $17 minimum class III CME milk prices just to keep from going broke!!! $17 kills the food manufacturers! So either I'm going to go broke or they are going to go broke- there is no alternative with grain prices this high! My cows' diet is 66% grain (mainly corn) and there is no alternative! And commodities keep on ramping! Give me a stick for my teeth!
|
Detersbb
Posts: 93
Incept: 2010-10-20
Banned
|
This is another great article and very well articulated with superior points. "My thesis that economic Depressions come not from credit collapses so much as they do from margin collapse. That is, the inability to make a profit due to input cost ramps while you are unable to pass through those costs to the consumer of your product or service."
It is my understanding that in the 1st Great Depression (This is the 2nd) that a great amount of wealth and equity was transferred from the people to the banks. This time around there is many a fraction of a percent of that wealth and equity to transfer. Without forgiveness or unconditional discharge of debt, recreating a new system without old banking debts, etc... is there any way that this country will pull through?
It seems to me that too much wealth is too concentrated into the hands of the few and without an adjustment there will be a return to a kind of feudalism, debt peonage, serfdom. Am I wrong?
|
Looseal
Posts: 148
Incept: 2008-09-08
Noo Yawk
|
Bluis, great first post. Thank you for the information.
|
Pitz
Posts: 860
Incept: 2010-04-08
voluntary resigned
|
Couldn't happen to a nicer group of folks. Cisco could have, along with the rest of the tech industry, found a way to absorb the best and brightest tech grads of the past decade, instead of filling their ranks with cheap foreigners. Those 'best and brightest' would have been building the next generation of Cisco gear instead of being on Wall Street and creating scams and derivatives.
Sure, computers might cost $2000 or $3000 instead of $500. But that would have been far more economical for Americans than this nonsense with the banking system.
|
Bighiller
Posts: 1473
Incept: 2009-05-06
Hiding from Monkeys
|
I remember in the book Lessons of History that wealth seems to act like a heartbeat in that it gets concentrated, then ends up getting redistributed.
Concentrated -> Redistributed -> Concentrated -> Redistributed.
Rinse and repeat.
----------
The Earth will forget Mankind.
The play of life will go on.
|
Zenthunder
Posts: 6829
Incept: 2007-10-11
|
yes Big - that is what a depression is, assuming debt gets discharged. Its a heartbeat. The more they try to keep the cycle from happening the worse the return to normalcy will be...
----------
*** FRAUD is NOT a business model.
HOPE is not a business plan!
|
J0nx
Posts: 3068
Incept: 2008-08-12
The trashcan of the nation
|
Thank you Bluis, it's great to get this kind of info direct from 'the street' as it were. Something has got to give here.
----------
The fraud and lies are only allowed to continue because the people allow it. Either through apathy or ignorance, they still allow it.
|
Trades50
Posts: 4218
Incept: 2007-10-30
Land of Tax and Spend
|
But Google is giving 10% raises...
----------
When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
|
Joejohns
Posts: 694
Incept: 2010-09-09
Banned
|
Is Mr PO_MO ahead of this??? Does he see the storm and thus is going to daily pomo until the end?
He's going out guns blazing?
and taking us with him!
It may not be long now...........
|
Pitz
Posts: 860
Incept: 2010-04-08
voluntary resigned
|
Quote:But Google is giving 10% raises... Will be interesting to see just what 'ad' revenue Google will have when the margins have been squeezed out of all the businesses that advertise through them. Maybe this episode will finally put the Ponzi-scheme nature of the tech industry to a rest. Geez, they've had a decade to get things right and yet the nonsense still continues. |
Mikpaq
Posts: 420
Incept: 2009-02-26
Maine
|
Genesis said "Cisco seems to have been "blindsided" by public sector, cable company and consumer softness. How could they be? I've been charting this in durables for the last two months!"
Do you think they sit around reading and studying economics like you do? I have worked for a small publicly traded company that relied heavily on public sector funding, and one product line on discretionary business spending to sell their product. When the SHTF in '08 and '09 they had no idea that discretionary business spending would dry up. They are too busy trying to keep the shareholders happy to always be paying attention to what's going on in the real world.
I'm not excusing them for missing it, just pointing out it is not a priority for most companies.
----------
Remember, pillage first, then burn.
|
Truthseeker
Posts: 8479
Incept: 2007-10-07
NorCal
|
Mikpaq, that dog don't hunt.
In ANY organization, much less one the size of Cisco, senior management has as a primary responsibility awareness of macroeconomic issues that effect the company. If they DON'T employ someone who keeps an eye trained in that direction, (or, more likely, have senior management who do so as a matter of course), they're simply not doing their job.
In one of my later jobs we had FIVE senior management types who circulated and updated regular reports that analyzed the various markets we worked in, including macro-level stuff that effects business in general. And we were a boutique marketing company of fewer than 400 employees.
----------
"...But people better realize that the worst-case scenario could actually happen.9/11 happened. This can happen. An economic 9/11, the likes of which we've never seen." Gerald Celente
|
Rocarocket
Posts: 74
Incept: 2010-10-01
Reno, Nv
|
Excellent post, I wondered how long it would take before the slow down in spending started showing up in tech.
In depression I weren't the dairy farmers pouring milk on their fields not because there was no demand but because there was no money to buy it with.
|
Mo
Posts: 12158
Incept: 2007-06-26
Pa.
|
Truthseeker, my recent experience is - no negative news is permitted to be spoken or written in corporations now.
Oprahism reigns.
----------
Welcome to Pottersville
|
Ludanjack
Posts: 1429
Incept: 2007-07-29
Ft. Lauderdale
Banned
|
I've been following the margin compression discussion for quite some time. Everybody is complaining about high commodity prices and I often read and hear complaints of high costs for store bought eggs, milk, cheese, butter, etc. My family has had a dairy farm for 17 years we've never seen anything like the last 3 years before. 15 years of equity were wiped out in the last 2.5 years and it's _industry_wide_. Quote:I swear Karl is right about depressions being caused by margin compression. You guys complain milk, cheese, butter is too expensive and kraft and dean foods are seeing their profits go up in smoke due to high milk prices. Then how come the dairy industry can't even come close to breaking even for the last 2.5 years up to the present??? Corn@$6/bu soybeans>$13!!! Us dairyman are getting paid a pretty high price right now and are still short 20% from break-even!!! We need $17 minimum class III CME milk prices just to keep from going broke!!! $17 kills the food manufacturers! So either I'm going to go broke or they are going to go broke- there is no alternative with grain prices this high! My cows' diet is 66% grain (mainly corn) and there is no alternative! And commodities keep on ramping! Give me a stick for my teeth! Wow. we are screwed even worse than I thought, and I thought we were pretty damn screwed. |
Steelhead23
Posts: 2043
Incept: 2008-09-09
Portland OR
|
Jonesin for a new CEO gig, Gen? There you are, making it clear that John Chambers is an idiot to keep producing into a declining margin. But, isn't that just what EZ credit and all that gov't-sponsored cheerleading was intended to do? How patriotic of John to play along. A true American. Apparently his stockholders do not agree.
Please excuse me if my cynicism is offensive - to anyone. My only excuse is that an asteroid is coming. I've seen it clearly through my TF amateur astronomy telescope, its coming - and there's no ****** place to go.
----------
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" —Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild Benjamin Bernanke
For-profit commercial banks are a menace and should be eradicated
|
Mikpaq
Posts: 420
Incept: 2009-02-26
Maine
|
Mo,
That is pretty much what I have seen.
Truthseeker,
Maybe at CSCO, however I worked at a small <$100 million/yr publicly traded company. God forbid you forecasted flat or negative growth. We were about 300 employees too.
----------
Remember, pillage first, then burn.
|
Killersdad
Posts: 1036
Incept: 2008-03-27
upstate NY
|
I live in an area that has a large dairy farm population and Bluis is spot on with his post about milk producers.
I don't know how they are surviving on the below cost prices they are recieving.
The retail prices keep going up but none of it trickles down to the producers.
I know of some that are pulling equity out of their farms to keep the business side going until "things get better".
This is a recipie for disaster.
----------
They keep talking about drafting a Constitution for Iraq ...why don't we just give them ours? It was written by a lot of really smart guys, it has worked for over 200 years, and we're not using it anymore.
|
