Greedspan And Bernanke Flap Gums (Again)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2010-03-26 10:31
by Karl Denninger
in Federal Reserve
Ignore this thread
Greedspan And Bernanke Flap Gums (Again)
 

Isn't it time for this clown to leave the public stage?

Higher yields reflect investor concerns over “this huge overhang of federal debt which we have never seen before,” Greenspan said in an interview today on Bloomberg Television.

“I’m very much concerned about the fiscal situation,” said Greenspan, 84, who headed the central bank from 1987 to 2006. An increase in long-term interest rates “will make the housing recovery very difficult to implement and put a dampening on capital investment as well.”

No really?

Why don't you go on to explain what happens when the yield rises and the government is borrowing and spending at a rate of some 10% of GDP?

That would be a problem, right?  It would be an even more serious problem if we took the current GDP (~14 trillion or so) and then accounted for just the on balance sheet guarantees - that is, the total debt (~$12 trillion or so plus the $5 trillion in Fannie and Freddie that Geithner has repeatedly said the Treasury will "backstop" - legal requirement to do so or no.)

This, by the way, is over 120% of GDP for debt, well beyond what is considered "reasonably safe."

This is some sort of "surprise"?   It is now worthy of comment by the "Maestro", more than two years into the insane public spending policies of both the previous and this administration?  Why wasn't it worthy of comment in 2007?  2008?  2009?  This pattern of "how we bail out people" began in 2007, if you recall.

Then there's Bernanke:

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told legislators yesterday that “restoring the size and composition” of the Fed’s record $2.32 trillion balance sheet to a “more normal configuration” is a long-term policy goal. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in an interview the central bank must start making plans now for future asset sales.

Yeah, right.  Let's cut the crap here - The Fed has bought $1.4 trillion in mortgage securities - all Fannie and Freddie paper of one form or another - as an attempt to maintain the popped housing bubble.  They have, in fact, bought more than 80% of the issuance during the last year - that is, they are the market.

“The economy continues to require the support of accommodative monetary policies,” Bernanke said in testimony to the House Financial Services Committee. He said the central bank will be ready to tighten credit “at the appropriate time.”

These policies are not "accommodative monetary policy."  They are an intentional distortion of the housing finance market entered into for the express purpose of attempting to prop up bubble prices in housing.

The simple fact of the matter is that The Fed is trapped.  If they sit on these securities then they will take the credit losses, if any, and be forced to go to Treasury to backstop them.  But that's counter-productive since Treasury has no actual cash and will have to issue even more debt in order to come up with the money!

This policy action was a clean mistake and must be both recognized as such and reversed.  Long rates are dramatically below where they should be, and this has done nothing but attempt to kick the can with regard to the housing price correction that must come if we are to ever stabilize the housing market and return housing to an affordable area of finance for American consumers.

The longer we continue to allow these insane distortions of the market to continue the worse the damage will be when, not if, the manipulations fail - and fail they will, as they always do.

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User Info Greedspan And Bernanke Flap Gums (Again) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Ilikecoffee
Posts: 1563
Incept: 2008-04-17
Green
cold , AK
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"The simple fact of the matter is that The Fed is trapped. If they sit on these securities then they will take the credit losses, if any, and be forced to go to Treasury to backstop them. But that's counter-productive since Treasury has no actual cash and will have to issue even more debt in order to come up with the money"

How do they take losses? As I see it they just own the market and make up the money to keep owning the market. How does that cost them?

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You can trust the government, ask any American Indian.

"When people lose everything and they have nothing left to lose, they lose it" Gerald Celente
Jswede
Posts: 9
Incept: 2009-04-16

Chicago
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read John Hussman's "Federal Reserve's Exit Strategy: Unlegislated Bailout of Fannie and Freddie" for color on what their plan is. taking FNM/FRE losses at the expense of the Treasury while in the Fed's protfolio is EXACTLY what this plan is all about.

of interest:

* the $1.5bil in agency now on the Fed's books exactly equals the liquidity programs that are winding now, keeping the balance sheet (and monetary base) at the same level

* these securities will never again see the light of day as they are part of the GSE bailout, only veiled as an attempt to keep rates down

* buydowns of non-performing mbs pools will continue, so that the losses can be taken within the system, by the Treas, as opposed to paid out to investors

Widgeon
Posts: 13481
Incept: 2007-08-30
Green
Region formerly known as the United States
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Quote:
He said the central bank will be ready to tighten credit “at the appropriate time.”



Like, Around 2020 ... Maybe Later.

Bagbalm
Posts: 4251
Incept: 2009-03-19
Green
Just North of Detroit
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Damn Greenspan rode this horse in wet and winded ready to drop to it's knees and now he is concerned. I hope he dies penniless with fleas in a cardboard box.
Genem
Posts: 3
Incept: 2009-12-28

California
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Genesis,

You said(actually you've said this several times and I still don't get it):
Quote:
The simple fact of the matter is that The Fed is trapped. If they sit on these securities then they will take the credit losses, if any, and be forced to go to Treasury to backstop them.


Why? Why would the FED be forced to go to the treasury to cover the FED's losses? Can't the FED just enter a number in a computer to cover it losses. Or just call the printer up and order some more cash?
Hihoherewego
Posts: 931
Incept: 2009-02-25

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This is a decently good read which outlines the Fed's current machinations, motives, and its subsequent true beneficiaries, in clear simple language most can understand. And it puts into concise perspective why the Fed doesn't want to get audited. This is the kind of missive that they absolutely must hate getting out to the masses.

To wit this snippet...

"In this article we will illuminate what looks on paper to be a brilliant economic strategy, and then cut through the theory to get to the real world bottom line for all of us: you and I stand to lose everything if an ambitious but profoundly dangerous strategy goes awry, while the bonuses and future rewards continue to go straight to those whose short-sighted greed created this mess in the first place."



Enjoy.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-15707.h....

......................

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Csauer52
Posts: 386
Incept: 2008-06-11
Green
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Quote:
“I’m very much concerned about the fiscal situation,” said Greenspan, 84


Why is he so concerned? The bastard is 84 and probably won't be around to see the **** storm that .gov has created through their machinations.
Bluebird
Posts: 1381
Incept: 2008-05-02
Silver
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Maybe the storm is coming sooner than expected, and he will be around to see it.
5755hsa
Posts: 643
Incept: 2008-09-07
Green
North of 40 in the land of pathetic highways
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“I’m very much concerned about the fiscal situation,” said Greenspan, 84

Who the **** is he kidding...he was one of the main architechs that helped to create all of this ****. F.O. Greenscum.

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Ineptocracy (in-ep-toc'-ra-cy) - a system of government where the
least capable to lead are elected by the least capable of producing,
and where members of society least likely to succeed, are rewarded with goods paid for by the
confiscated wealth of a diminishing number of producers.
Steelhead23
Posts: 2037
Incept: 2008-09-09
Green
Portland OR
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Does anyone know precisely what is on the Fed's balance sheet? The term MBS could mean CDOs or the mortgages themselves. And heck, what about CDS that may be written on those CDOs? My thoughts run to how would the Fed reconcile its balance sheet? Would they foreclose on delinquent loans? Gosh, I'd bet they really, really don't want to do that (the image of Bernanke pushing Grandma out into the street would not be good for him or Obama). So, not only did the Fed error on its assumption that the housing market would quickly recover but they failed to consider the optics if they were forced to foreclose.

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"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" —Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild Benjamin Bernanke
For-profit commercial banks are a menace and should be eradicated
Morla
Posts: 815
Incept: 2009-11-09
Green
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Reconcile it's balance sheet? Why would they do that? They can write their balance sheet in crayon on a cocktail napkin and make up numbers that don't exist, no one would ever see it right?

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Fear of govt IS the government.. Statism is a pack of unbacked threats; If govt gets out of control, ignore it and go about life as you see fit. Where's your crown, King Nothing?
Poer
Posts: 1382
Incept: 2008-09-28
Silver
'Eppur si muove!'
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it is kind of like a magic trick played on the American Taxpayer-
look at the debt rabbit- and abra cadabra- watch it disappear- your tax dollars that is, along with the bad debt rabbit.

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"The degree to which a man substitutes the judgment of others for his own, failing to look at reality directly, is the degree to which his mental processes are alienated from reality." Nathaniel Branden in Ayn Rands 'Capitalism The Unknown Ideal'

Vegasradar
Posts: 8651
Incept: 2007-07-11
Silver A True American Patriot!
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Karl, did you hear Bernanke during the hearing yesterday when he was questioned about the buying of treasuries from the Pimco article?

He said he has NOT and is NOT monetizing the debt.
He flat out denied to any purchases —smiley

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Be the change you want to see in the world. ~Mahatma Gandhi
Genesis
Posts: 130684
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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HE's LYING.

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Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Rhabdamanth
Posts: 3000
Incept: 2008-10-31
Green
NJ, USA
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Whewt: Thanks for the link. It sounds like a plan.

inline

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Being Paranoid just means you have all the facts... - Workinstiff
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Vegasradar
Posts: 8651
Incept: 2007-07-11
Silver A True American Patriot!
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Quote:
HE's LYING.


NO ****?

Who'd a thunk smiley

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Be the change you want to see in the world. ~Mahatma Gandhi
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