6,000 Nuclear Weapons No Longer Matters?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2010-03-22 11:32
by Karl Denninger
in Bonds
Ignore this thread
6,000 Nuclear Weapons No Longer Matters?
 

Now we're going to have to threaten to use them....

Two-year notes sold by the billionaire’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. in February yield 3.5 basis points less than Treasuries of similar maturity, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Procter & Gamble Co., Johnson & Johnson and Lowe’s Cos. debt also traded at lower yields in recent weeks, a situation former Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. chief fixed-income strategist Jack Malvey calls an “exceedingly rare” event in the history of the bond market.

Got that one?

The Market has now called the bluff of Obama and the rest of the government: go ahead and keep deficit spending, and there will be private companies that are safer - in terms of credit risk - than the United States Government.

This is not "exceedingly rare", it is a warning. 

A strong, clear warning.

It's one I expect the administration to ignore, but sticking one's head in the sand on this issue is extremely dangerous.  Doing so could easily lead to the government winding up with a spiral going the wrong way - and fast.

Don't expect Obama and Geithner to "get it" until it's too late... but as I pointed out this weekend we are rapidly approaching the point where all this arm-waving simply won't matter.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info 6,000 Nuclear Weapons No Longer Matters? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Irishsamurai
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BILGE

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“Why is it the ship beats the waves when the waves are so many and the ship is one? The reason is that the ship has a purpose.” - Churchill

Aja
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Come on - "they" will just keep on playing shell games until we (USA) are the last ones standing.
Badmoonrising
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The article ends with,

“There’s no natural law that says a Treasury has to yield less than a corporate,” said Daniel Shackelford, who is part of a group that manages $18 billion in bonds at T. Rowe Price Group Inc. in Baltimore. “It wouldn’t be the first time that I would scratch my head and say ‘this doesn’t make sense, the market’s behaving irrationally.’ And it can go on for much longer than you may think.”

Key words in my view are "the market's behaving irrationally"
Aynrandfan
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Gen the market actually is correct, here:

Berkshire Hathaway IS a better credit risk than the US Government, they do actually have a MUCH HIGHER book value (and the accounting which says so is perfectly legit) -- and Warren Buffett's word is worth far more than the word of our "leadership" in Washington.

It's perfectly correct that the market has priced the corresponding debt accordingly.

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"To be wronged is nothing unless you continue to remember it."
-- Confucius
Geckogm
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Irish..I think Gen was making a different point.


The most secure investment in the world Is /was T's. Rumor had it if you wanted to store wealth with a guaranteed return 6000 trump cards was as close as you could get.


Iliketrends
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Irish


That comment is prime BILGE.

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“The danger to America is not Barack Obama but a citizenry capable of entrusting a man like him with the presidency. It will be easier to limit and undo the follies of an Obama presidency than to restore the necessary common sense and good judgment to a depraved electorate willing to have such a man for their president
Bagbalm
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Warren Buffett doesn't appear to be having a deranged psychotic episode if he has to make a few off the cuff remarks without a teleprompter. In my day to day life if I met someone who babbles in incomplete sentences without discernible meaning I try to avoid them in the future - certainly not turn over my cash to their keeping. The President, Vice President, Secretary of the Treasury and head of the Fed all babble incoherent responses unrelated to any question put to them. If they are not fools then they certainly think we are fools not to notice they speak like they are on an acid trip.

Perhaps the point Gen. was making was that government ultimately extracts wealth from us by threat of force - but when you are selling bonds on a voluntary basis even having nuclear weapons doesn't help you rob the peasants.
I suppose if they can make us buy health insurance they can force us to buy bonds too or be fined. Please - nobody suggest that to them....I wouldn't try it with foreign sovereigns.

Reason: to add comment
Themortgagedude
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To me this creates a tremondous investment opportunity for hedgies to short the corporate issue and go long treasuries. Much like a time nine years ago when 30 year debt was yielding less than ten year debt.

Almost assuredly we would print rather than default. So T's must be better than corporates. As corporates have the same inflation risk. So what are we pricing in here - revolution risk? Well there might be some of that if they keep up what they've done last week and with the banking bailout last year.

I guess thats what I'll call it - Revolution Risk.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Irishsamurai
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Iliketrends,

Agreed. Point missed. ;)

-Irish


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“Why is it the ship beats the waves when the waves are so many and the ship is one? The reason is that the ship has a purpose.” - Churchill
Kidhorn
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Unless Berkshire pays it's yield in something other than USD, this makes no sense. The treasury can print money if they need to and is 100% guaranteed to if push comes to shove. If there's a revolution, the Berkshire debt won't be any more valuable than any other USD denominated debt.

I think this was just a temporary fluke.

Reason: typo
Lordhumongous
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Buffett is an insider with implied DC backing. Heads BRK is in better shape than DC, tails DC bails out BRK.
Trades50
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Quote:
It's one I expect the administration to ignore


As they have in the past. Extend and pretend.

Quote:
Don't expect Obama and Geithner to "get it" until it's too late


So why aren't rates double digits? Even the Greek rates were low for the risk.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Lugnut
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I guess we'll have to start paying closer attention to that plan to make Treasuries a mandatory part of your 401k.
Bezzle
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I'd rather buy Pokemon cards than Treasuries.

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El Sock-Puppeto exposed and killed by Tickerguy

Peezdets
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6,000 Nuclear Weapons matter exactly as much as just a dozen of Nuclear Weapons. If you use all 6,000 on others you are ****ed just the same as all other countries you bombed.

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smileysmiley
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