Dell Is Well-Capitalized?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2009-07-14 14:29
by Karl Denninger
in Company Specific
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Dell Is Well-Capitalized?
 

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July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Dell Inc., after cutting spending, raising money in the debt market and temporarily suspending its share-buyback program, says it is reviewing alternative sources of capital as customers continue to curb technology purchases.

Wait a second - I thought these technology companies didn't have any material amount of debt and were doing ok, even with a slower economy?

The world’s second-largest maker of personal computers has to fund some of the growth in its financial-services unit and will likely need to provide more capital to the business later in the year, Chief Financial Officer Brian Gladden said today. The unit provides financing to customers who buy Dell products and services.

Ooooooohhhhhh... as in "oh oh."

Lucent anyone?

Hmmm..... how's the credit quality in that portfolio Michael?  Lates?  No-pays?  Charge-offs?

One nasty for a tech company - if you wind up foreclosing on a client with a lease or purchase deal, the "collateral" is lucky to fetch 50 cents on the dollar - even as little as six months to a year after delivery.  Beyond two years its generally scrap.

One has to wonder how much of DELL's "growth" was really growth and how much of it was driven by financing - you know, levering up your customers by internally covering their debt, issuing cheap debt on your own balance sheet to fund your financing activities?

The health of such a strategy and its impact on you is entirely dependent on your credit underwriting.  If it bites (or is non-existent) then when the economy turns their "boom" becomes your "boom".

It will be interesting when DELL reports earnings - hopefully we'll both get some color on this and the so-called "analysts" will grill the company on this point, as problems in the customer financing unit can literally sink you.

Think not? 

Talk to Lucent.

Oh wait - you can't - they're gone, folded into Alcatel which is itself trading around $2.

Disclosure: No position; if I'd seen this one coming I would have been short up to my eyeballs.

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User Info Dell Is Well-Capitalized? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Lodgerhead
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Dell switched to the car dealers plan several years ago, pushing leases and selling payments and cutting service in order to pull forward demand.
Kwl88
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Hmmm, that doesn't sound good for the Austin-Round Rock areas of Texas! They still have UT & State Government BUT Dell is a key component to their private sector. This was another geographic region that was humming along fine AND now it appears is also beginning to feel the effects from the REALLY bad economy in those Blue States like CA, MI & NY!
Genesis
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They're done if they get in trouble on that portfolio.

Seen this one before. If they can't internally finance with their operating margins they've got MAJOR problems.

Extending credit to anyone who asked is how Lucent got destroyed when Winstar went under.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Quik49
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to coin a phrase... "ookk"

have not bought anything near a widget here for the office.....in a lonnnnnnnng time...

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Tsberts
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Karl -
Quote:
Its Intel - tracked it down.

I'll take the other side of that bet.


Were you referring to this Dell piece? I don't grok that comment.

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Photoguy was an optimist.
In Soviet Russia, the banks are run by the politicians.
The cancer within the federal government has metastasized, it's now up to each of the states to contain the cancer.
Coolhandluke
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I know first hand Dell is hurting. We use to buy all of our desktop and laptop computers from them.

We haven't bought one all year. We don't even renew the maintenance on the ones we did buy.

It's cheaper to replace a few PCs here and there than to pay for extended service.

Sales people call all the time looking for business. The answer is always the same.

Sorry, we don't need anything right now.

Tesla
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That's OK, CHL - the SS Admin just bought 2000 new computers here in the SE PA area. Just doing its part to stimulate - and yes, they were Dell's.

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Slartibartfast
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The support and build quality is as close to zero as they can get away with.

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Cthulhu R'yleh Goldman Sachs
Genesis
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TS: No, the instability in the /ES and /NQ since about 11:00 - I found the correlation - been looking for it.

Its Intel.

Ignoring those two Dell PRs is a huge mistake. Intel might have sidestepped it, but man, you're buying into their second-biggest customer saying that sales kinda suck.

That's not what I'd buy into!

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Tsberts
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Thanks for the clarification.

Front-month INTC puts are even cheaper than when you pointed them out this morning. Hmmm.

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Photoguy was an optimist.
In Soviet Russia, the banks are run by the politicians.
The cancer within the federal government has metastasized, it's now up to each of the states to contain the cancer.
Nirvan45
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50 cents on the dollar?
Damn that is too generous.
Computer products are worse than cars, let's not forget that.
Use a number let's say less than 30 cents on the dollar, how would that work out

Edit: while I was flipping channels saw one guy saying intel building inventory and that is great news because they see growth down the line.
Also your buddy dennis on one those channel flip was saying GS is saying world wide recession is over and buy stocks of any kind.
Funny when I listened to CC they were persistant on saying they can not see bottom of that black hole

Amgrace
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I'm pretty sure CIT stepped in to do the vendor finance for Avaya after Lucent went down, fwiw.

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Shrpblnd
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Hmmm, I have a small position in some Dell Computer Corp Sr Deb bonds that I bought a while ago, because they seemed relatively safe. I'm still positive on them, but now I am debating dumping them, although they are paying almost 8%.

Baja
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I don't have the time or inclination to look into the finance organization, but the mothership DELL is listing badly to port:

Total Liab - $22.22 B
Total Net Assets - $1.8 B

I know, $14B of liab are current but still......

One more thing.. Dell isn't a tech company. It's an assembler of technology. No R&D, no significant product edge. They've always competed on cost and execution and they can't seem to do that any more.
Coolhandluke
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Quote:
the SS Admin just bought 2000 new computers here in the SE PA area


Probably paid double too. smiley
Obseedian
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Oh ****ttttt...

That makes Friday's upgrade by Goldman even worse.

Probability Goldman knew about the impending press releases: 100%

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Genesis
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I'll say it again: If they get into financing trouble with that unit, they're done.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Quik49
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somehow that statement is going to be come one of those so many "told ya so"...

get out the bbq sauce....

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Johnny_crab
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Forwarded to our IT guys to ponder.
Those numbers Baja tossed out don't look to happy.

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Happymob
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Quote:
Hmmm, I have a small position in some Dell Computer Corp Sr Deb bonds that I bought a while ago, because they seemed relatively safe. I'm still positive on them, but now I am debating dumping them, although they are paying almost 8%.

Dell going broke would be an absolute shock to me, so I would probably hold onto that. That said, this story is also shocking to me - why the heck does Dell need cash? Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.

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Kab
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I sure as hell wouldn't make any bets about the quality of their underwriting.
Shrpblnd
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Didn't Dell also extend a lot of credit to dotcom's that blew up in the Tech Wreck? I was working for a startup at the time and I know we had some pretty generous credit from Dell, but I quickly pared back purchases and we paid them off before the startup melted.

I'm sure they got burned by many other dotcom startup's though back then. It will be interesting to see if they have done a better job controlling risk this time.
Anti
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I have bought three laptops from them within the last few months - they were practically begging me to finance them with them. FWIW

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Obseedian
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Quote:
they were practically begging me to finance them with them.


Looks like they make more on the financing side than the actual hardware.

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Would you give your money to these banks? http://bankimplode.com/list/troubledbank....

“Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything.” - Joseph Stalin
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