Posted 2007-04-26 08:18
by Karl Denninger
by Karl Denninger
Here's my morning call! It starts with Bronzillo's favorite!
I think we'll call her Madeline......
Countrywide misses! Oh boy..... and this piggy has been on fire the last couple of days.
Boom boom - out go the lights! $37.72 last night for the close..... today? Hmmm.... market don't likey that headline number. $36.55 flying by..... Crap - I didn't short it last afternoon..... might have to jump on that train this morning.
Ok, let's see, we've got....
Higher delinquencies, more foreclosures (which they're basing on loan count - cute - how about on a dollar basis Bronzillo - now I gotta go actually READ the 10Q?! Tee hee....) and the best part is of course that they cut guidance.
What's more interesting is that they appear to be losing badly in the banking segment. In other words, not does their mortgage lending stink, it appears that their banking operations suck as well. I read the topline number as 17% decline in pre-tax earnings on the bank (not mortgage) side, with most of the impact appearing coming from loan loss reserves - interest income was up. Oh, and so was non-interest expense (can you spell "charge-off"?)
Oink Oink!!!!
More after I've had time to figure out exactly how bad this is - first blush is that it looks pretty ugly, but it may be worse - I bet there's a PayOption nuclear bomb in there somewhere.
Oh wait - there is! I knew it. Looks like, at first glance, that PayOption NegAm was 234m .vs. 109m last year. Heh, that'd be....... 54% of "income" .vs. what..... 16ish percent?
Oh boy this is gonna get good! Can you spell Washington Mutual? Heh Bronzillo! There's a ticking nuclear weapon under your bedsheets! No, that's not your wife, and it thinks your cute!
IndyMac!
You poor ignorant fools (those who have been bidding this piggy up by a buck 28 in the premarket.)
We're back to reading headlines again. Up up and away to the mooooooooooonnnn!
Thank our government schools for this one. Only in America is a 34% decline in profit considered a good thing, with revenue down too (heh, 1%, but down is down)
Oh, and the company also cut forecasts....
And wait! As they say on TV, there's more! It looks like they cut loss reserves to NPAs to 0.44 from 1.09% the year ago. In other words, this is the same trick Washington Mutual pulled - cutting loss reserves while credit quality is going down!
Looks great in the quarterly, but pushes the button on something ugly.....
Heh guys! I have a new one for 'ya..... this is what's on both these firm's balance sheets....
Oh, and guess what - Pulte, Ryland and Beazer all withdrew guidance for the rest of the year. Gee, do companies do this when the outlook for business is good?
I think we'll call her Madeline......
Countrywide misses! Oh boy..... and this piggy has been on fire the last couple of days.
Boom boom - out go the lights! $37.72 last night for the close..... today? Hmmm.... market don't likey that headline number. $36.55 flying by..... Crap - I didn't short it last afternoon..... might have to jump on that train this morning.
Ok, let's see, we've got....
Higher delinquencies, more foreclosures (which they're basing on loan count - cute - how about on a dollar basis Bronzillo - now I gotta go actually READ the 10Q?! Tee hee....) and the best part is of course that they cut guidance.
What's more interesting is that they appear to be losing badly in the banking segment. In other words, not does their mortgage lending stink, it appears that their banking operations suck as well. I read the topline number as 17% decline in pre-tax earnings on the bank (not mortgage) side, with most of the impact appearing coming from loan loss reserves - interest income was up. Oh, and so was non-interest expense (can you spell "charge-off"?)
Oink Oink!!!!
More after I've had time to figure out exactly how bad this is - first blush is that it looks pretty ugly, but it may be worse - I bet there's a PayOption nuclear bomb in there somewhere.
Oh wait - there is! I knew it. Looks like, at first glance, that PayOption NegAm was 234m .vs. 109m last year. Heh, that'd be....... 54% of "income" .vs. what..... 16ish percent?
Oh boy this is gonna get good! Can you spell Washington Mutual? Heh Bronzillo! There's a ticking nuclear weapon under your bedsheets! No, that's not your wife, and it thinks your cute!
IndyMac!
You poor ignorant fools (those who have been bidding this piggy up by a buck 28 in the premarket.)
We're back to reading headlines again. Up up and away to the mooooooooooonnnn!
Thank our government schools for this one. Only in America is a 34% decline in profit considered a good thing, with revenue down too (heh, 1%, but down is down)
Oh, and the company also cut forecasts....
And wait! As they say on TV, there's more! It looks like they cut loss reserves to NPAs to 0.44 from 1.09% the year ago. In other words, this is the same trick Washington Mutual pulled - cutting loss reserves while credit quality is going down!
Looks great in the quarterly, but pushes the button on something ugly.....
Heh guys! I have a new one for 'ya..... this is what's on both these firm's balance sheets....
Oh, and guess what - Pulte, Ryland and Beazer all withdrew guidance for the rest of the year. Gee, do companies do this when the outlook for business is good?
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