Today looks to open pretty much flat, even with the Alcoa bid for Alcan in the headlines. The Dow will certainly get a bit of a lift, but the S&P and Nasdaq appear to be flat.

There's nothing really happening - Asia opened very strong but closed with a bit of color on the page, although the Nikkie and Shanghi indices were very strong. Followthrough or leadership? Hmmm....

Treasury refunding starts today, which may add a bit of volatility to the bond market. This is the last auction for the 3 year, which the Treasury is withdrawing from the market. Their claim is that its not needed given the lower deficit.

Everyone seems to be sitting on their hands waiting for the Fed decision coming this week on interest rates. It is essentially a given that the discount rate will remain unchanged; the question becomes is there a bias and, if so, which way.

Nothing of note happened over the weekend. The premise I am working off of remains the same; the wedges will be my guide today, waiting to see if there is any sort of significant move above or below before I commit the cash. It feels like the calm before the storm.... now the question is, do we get a nice May Shower, or a Cat 5 Hurricane?

Good trading to you!

PS: We've all heard the old saw about "don't try to catch a falling knife." I saw a new one this morning that's even better - "don't try to catch falling pianos." While its not true yet - it may be soon.