Posted 2007-08-27 11:15
by Karl Denninger
by Karl Denninger
Moronic if you're a cheerleading National Association of Realtors guy, that is!
Existing Home Sales. What is there to say about it?
Countryslide reacted as any good stock should when slammed with a hit piece in a major national newspaper. It slid. Surprisingly, not as much as I expected, but heh, hope still springs eternal for these guys and there are a bunch of institutional bagholders, er, investors , some of whom are bigtime contrarians. If and when they decide they've had enough, however, there's nothing to stop a raw implosion in the stock price. This is not somewhere to play for the timid, as one piece of news either way could result in an explosion up - or down - and it is also a very crowded trade. I'm happy to daytrade this thing and I bought some "bankruptcy lotto tickets" this morning, but hold it? Uh, I don't think so! I like my profits in my account!
Today we find out that The Fed gave another exemption on regulatory capital - this one to JP Morgan.
TICK TICK TICK TICK......
Are we gonna hear a "BOOM"?
Ok, not much in the way of news today that piqued my curiosity, so let's do technicals!
Interesting! We didn't get to the .618 retracement level; in fact, we never went above Friday's close. We are sitting at the close right on the downward trendline.
Aberration (the pop above) or is this going to be a bounce and then either a move upward at or to penetration? Not sure at this point, but the MACD rolled over today and got weaker as the day went on, indicating that we may be headed south in a serious way to test that 1370 level down there... you know, the one below which lies "The Depths of Hell"?
We should know tomorrow fairly early on; if we're going to reverse we pretty much have to do it at the open. Otherwise, it looks like our corrective rally is over and we're fixing to get a retest.
The Dow held its downtrend line and has rolled over, also weakening on the MACD.
Tomorrow morning will be a critical time in this regard. If the market cannot hold current levels and rolls through the SPX downtrend line, the next stop is our previous lows - at 1370 on the SPX and 12,500 on the Dow.
Neither of which, by the way, I expect to hold.
Have a great afternoon!
Existing Home Sales. What is there to say about it?
And oh, guess what? August is where the fun with mortgages really got into full swing. Its kinda likely that August's numbers are, to be blunt, "gonna suck.""Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. fell in July for a fifth consecutive month, adding to the inventory of unsold properties and showing the housing slump that triggered a collapse in credit markets will drag on.
Purchases declined 0.2 percent, less than forecast, to an annual rate of 5.75 million, from 5.76 million in June, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. That was the slowest pace since November 2002. Sales dropped 9 percent compared with a year earlier."
Countryslide reacted as any good stock should when slammed with a hit piece in a major national newspaper. It slid. Surprisingly, not as much as I expected, but heh, hope still springs eternal for these guys and there are a bunch of institutional bagholders, er, investors , some of whom are bigtime contrarians. If and when they decide they've had enough, however, there's nothing to stop a raw implosion in the stock price. This is not somewhere to play for the timid, as one piece of news either way could result in an explosion up - or down - and it is also a very crowded trade. I'm happy to daytrade this thing and I bought some "bankruptcy lotto tickets" this morning, but hold it? Uh, I don't think so! I like my profits in my account!
Today we find out that The Fed gave another exemption on regulatory capital - this one to JP Morgan.
TICK TICK TICK TICK......
Are we gonna hear a "BOOM"?
Ok, not much in the way of news today that piqued my curiosity, so let's do technicals!
Interesting! We didn't get to the .618 retracement level; in fact, we never went above Friday's close. We are sitting at the close right on the downward trendline.
Aberration (the pop above) or is this going to be a bounce and then either a move upward at or to penetration? Not sure at this point, but the MACD rolled over today and got weaker as the day went on, indicating that we may be headed south in a serious way to test that 1370 level down there... you know, the one below which lies "The Depths of Hell"?
We should know tomorrow fairly early on; if we're going to reverse we pretty much have to do it at the open. Otherwise, it looks like our corrective rally is over and we're fixing to get a retest.
The Dow held its downtrend line and has rolled over, also weakening on the MACD.
Tomorrow morning will be a critical time in this regard. If the market cannot hold current levels and rolls through the SPX downtrend line, the next stop is our previous lows - at 1370 on the SPX and 12,500 on the Dow.
Neither of which, by the way, I expect to hold.
Have a great afternoon!
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