First, here is our jobless claims numbers...... 319,000..... up four thousand. But.... 4-week moving average down 1,000.

Hmmm..... and the futures go.... up?

Cognitive disconnect guys. You want a rate cut and bake it into the cake eh? What makes you think you're going to get one given this "high frequency" data? People think that perhaps retail numbers will be strong too?

Yeah, ok. Let's see - data that supports a rate cut, the market goes up. Data that says "no rate cut", the market goes up.

Is it just me or does anyone else see the same thing I do here - that people are cheering their book, trying like hell to unload to their "audience"..... after which, well.....

Oh, the DJ Business Barometer came in down 0.2%. Hmmmm.... down eh? Cccccooooonnnnnnttttrrrraaaccctttiiioooonnnnn?

And what did I saw a few months ago about energy?

Eight handle on oil! And did we get it today? Oh hell yes!

Cut rates eh? Uh...... no. Into strong commodity prices, decent employment numbers, ISM isn't awful, retail sales decent (but not great)? Hmmmm... how?

My guess? Discount window gets cut again. FedFunds? Not a snowball's chance in hell is my "best guess", with an outside chance of a 25bips cut - both of which won't satisfy the market.

1490 held. That's the important level from the perspective of "is the market going higher." I ain't buying it - we didn't even get through it intraday! So from where I sit the 1489.58 today was a gift, because it gave you a gorgeous (and very low risk) short entry point - if we go over 1490, what's your risk? Just the gap in the morning (assuming we get one); if we roll here you win big, if not, you're out in the morning. Works for me.

Countryslide got a big pop going into the close; no real news behind that I can find. Whassup with that one? Hmmmmm..... this morning they had an announcement, so why in the last hour and a half?

Oh, and Hovnavian! They're doing a "huge sale" on new homes. Hmmmm.... why do I think they're out of money and need liquidity - badly?

Anyway that's what we got - here's the technical; this one's suitable for all audiences..... :)

Have a wonderful evening!