ISM came in at 52, a bit under expectations (which were 53.)

Down a bit from the June numbers..... new orders down a bit, employment about even. No great strength but no great weakness either.

Oh, and of course the Pump Monkeys at CNBC have their "Dow XXX from Record Close" crawler again today. Front and center, of course....

So are we really headed for "up up and away"?

Oh please. And look at ****ibank this morning - upgrading ALL the builders.

Who are they trying to kid? There is ZERO evidence of a bottom in housing, and anyone who has half a brain isn't expecting any sort of "bottom" for at least another year - and that's being optimistic! These are the very same folks who just LAST QUARTER said there was going to be "no material impact" to their operations from the "subprime" mess, and now they've taken a series of HUGE charges - but of course they also said "that's all there is."

Uh huh.

We shall see.

Of course Friday we had people complaining about Poole's comments that pricing in a "series of rate cuts" might be stupid. How long did that bit of sanity last? An hour?

So the Dow goes and pins the old all-time closing high - instantly. The Nasdaq is up 20? On what? No recession coming eh? We're all safe? Oook.... if you believe that then go long and enjoy the ride...... if it lasts.

Not that I'm surprised by this, to be frank. This is pure irrationality at its finest - especially in the homebuilding sector. How can anyone put a "buy" call on all the builders when even the most optimistic estimates are that we will not see a bottom for over a year and improvement will not show up for a year beyond THAT?

Bottom line here - either there was no reason to cut rates (in which case the dollar tanking will kill us with inflation, which is bad for stocks) or there is a recession coming and the cut was justified (which is bad for stocks.)

Goldilocks is a load of bollocks. There is no such thing - either you have growth or not; there is none of this "not too hot, not too cold" baloney. But heh, the Pigmen are all about sucking you in so you wind up holding the bag.

Is this the mother and fathers or all double-tops? We shall see. I'm sure as hell not buying here. I still can't find a reason to - where's the MEW replacement going to come from? Where will the consumer keep getting his and her money from? Credit cards? For how long? Record levels of consumer debt is ok, with it shifting to revolving - higher interest - accounts? I think not.

But for today, the keyword is "buy buy buy". Oook. Keep at it boyz, if you want.

How's that work again?

I'm sure The Boys will change their tune again to find a "new reality" to explain how this is supposed to work, and of course the sheepie retail guys will buy in, because our wonderful Government Schools have given people the attention span and critical thought capabilities of a worm.

Perhaps someone can explain to me how "the people" allow The Pigmen to get away with this and buy into their bull****? Why is it that when "BigCap Tech" is what the market needs to be strong, when it fails, its suddenly "homebuilders"?

EVERY DAY WE FIND A NEW REASON FOR PEOPLE TO BUY, BUT NOBODY EVER IS HELD TO ACCOUNT FOR THEIR PREVIOUS CLAIMED REASONS TO BE BULLISH!

And what do "The Journalists" attribute the strength this morning? You wouldn't believe it unless you read it....

"The market, already advancing, bounced higher after the Institute for Supply Management said its index of manufacturing activity registered at 52.0 in September, below forecasts for a 53.0 reading. The news raised hopes that the Federal Reserve, which cut interest rates half a percentage point, will continue to cut rates to support a weakening economy."

You're kidding, right? An ISM number that is still in the "expansion" range supports more rate cuts? This has to be one of the most insane things I've seen in print in the last year.

THAT is what is driving the buying today? Oh I think I might short into this run. This is the definition of irrationality; rate cuts into a recession are POSITIVE for equities?

Well, maybe short-term on pure sentiment they are. But in the intermediate and longer term on why the rate cut was made? Oh hell no.

Oh, now let's talk about The Horsemen a bit. Specifically, Google. Guess what's been financing them for the last four years? Yep - mortgage lenders. Their payments for advertising have been insane. Guess what - most of that money is gone and not coming back. Earnings? Ho ho ho..... the only question is, what comes from overseas to mitigate it?

PS: Do you think the Gold Market believes this "strong market"? Hmmmm.... it was up today.... how's that work again?

Here's your technical!