For tomorrow.....



ICSC Chain Store Sales Index For Oct 20: -1.5%. Previous: +1.0%.
Redbook Retail Sales Index For Oct 20: -0.2%. Previous: +1.0%.
Oct Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: -5. Previous: 14.

(Negative 5?! NEGATIVE five? When was the last time we saw a negative print from one of the Fed Indices?)

Number of mentions of these recession-indicating prints on CNBull****, which is spending its time following Buffett's Jet around the world to China and cheering Apple? Do you really need to ask?

Let's be straight here - THOSE indicators are the story of the day, if you're an honest reporter. Not whether Apple "blew out LAST quarter." After all, the stock market is supposed to be a forward looking animal, right?

The story continues to be the same no matter where you listen on earnings - US weak, International strong. UPS managed only an anemic 1% volume growth in the US.

"The US economy is in the ditch but we're doing good in China, and we see no indication that the US is getting any better - quite to the contrary."

I could go down the list of nearly 100 companies that I've read the same summary from over the last week.... but there's really no need.

Now the concurrent indicators are confirming the projections of CEOs when it comes to the United States economic outlook.

Brinker (EAT) is a US-centric firm and their story was the same as everyone else's - labor costs are up, input commodity costs are skyrocketing, same-store sales are down. That's the US story, and the one that equity markets - in the end - will respond to.

AXP looks to have gotten a bid this morning - surprising with the huge growth in charge off reserves. But heh, so long as people are charging (even if we can't collect?) its time to buy the stock, right?

Whirlpool is the same story. Crap US sales, strong international.

But - in terms of equities today all that matters is that Apple beat last night and put forward what (IMHO) is a totally-unsustainable forecast, so its "buy buy buy" time this morning.

Have fun with that kids.

This looks to me to be time to step aside, pay attention to the blast radius - and insure that you're outside it.

Why?

I still am seeing nothing indicating that "the analysts" are downshifting their 4Q forecasts, even as individual firms are. If UPS' 1% US volume growth holds, that's 4% - not the 10-12% that is necessary to maintain P/E/G ratios.

Yet what is CNBull****'s coverage like this morning? Just heard - "who is going to be the first with a $1,000 price target on GOOG?"

I seem to remember something like this "let's see how high we can raise the price target" game a few years. I think it was in 1999. Hmmmm..... are we reprising the old song from the "tech bubble"? Maybe.

Does anyone remember what happened next?

Today's tape was pretty amusing; the divergences in the Nasdaq 100, however, are downright alarming. On a day with a 2% move upward the down volume is actually higher than up, and the A/D line is only 53:46! That's not funny at all, indicates tremendous distribution and that only a handful of issues are driving this. Over time history says this never resolves higher, although in the short term it sure feels good if you're long.

Just beware disappearing floors - they have a nasty habit of occurring when you least expect it when markets start trading like this.

Psst - might happen tomorrow. Don't look at Broadcom, Amazon, LVLT or Juniper tonight.

Psst2: Watch out if you're listening to Cramer and his call on "buy buy buy" CSCO. Great company? Yes. Beyond high risk here? Absolutely.

Here's your technical :)