This jives with what I posted over on Tickerforum:
Preliminary sales data show shoppers spent $10.66 billion when they hit the malls on the day after Thanksgiving. That's only 0.5 percent more than last year.
The figures were compiled by ShopperTrak RCT Corp., a Chicago research firm that tracks sales at more than 50,000 stores.
ShopperTrak did their usual pump job yesterday and got people all excited that "Black Friday" really was. Unfortunately for them, the National Retail Federation posted actual numbers, not "boots on the ground" - and of course counting the "cha-ching!" is what really counts.
Uh huh. ShopperTrak has a history of putting forth claimed "results" that bear no reasonable resemblance to reality. How bad?
November 2008: Sales during the day after Thanksgiving rose 3 percent to $10.6 billion, according to preliminary figures released Saturday by ShopperTrak RCT Corp., a Chicago-based research firm that tracks sales at more than 50,000 retail outlets.
This claim of course turned out to be a monstrous bust, and that's being polite. Now they're claiming a 1/2% increase. Three years in a row of being "way off"? Hmmmm.... maybe.
Notice "Coremetrics" claim too:
Web marketing analyst Coremetrics says the average amount online shoppers spent on Black Friday rose 35 percent.
That's nice. Now how many baskets of products were sold compared to last year, and why isn't that number in there?
Anecdotally I did notice slow response times on some major online sites Wednesday night in particular, as many web stores tried to "jump" the Black Friday game by releasing their sales early.
My own anecdotal report includes a photograph from Destin Commons, an open-air mall here that is rather "haughty" in their store mix. That is, there is plenty of high-priced stuff mixed in with some regular old retail (such a BassPro.) I have watched traffic levels here in this mall since it opened soon after we moved here.
Friday afternoon and evening were nothing to write home about, as you can see here.
I wouldn't call this a disaster - you can't shoot a howitzer down the street, as has been the case here at this mall in recent weeks - but I also wouldn't call this "strong shopping turnout."
The photo was taken at about 6:00 PM - right in the middle of the evening shopping period. If this is any sort of indication as to what we can expect around here for the remainder of the season I predict many more store closings in January. Weather was excellent - nice and crisp, as expected this time of year, comfortable with a light windbreaker. No rain or significant wind can be blamed for the lack of people.
A quick drive by the local Best Buy shortly after this photo was taken showed a parking lot filled to the normal level expected on any Friday night. There were parking spots available within 30' of the door, and the lot space directly in front of the store was about 30% full. Normal weekend traffic - no indication of "black anything."
Bag count was light as well. The vast majority of people held no bag. Of the remainder those with two or more could be counted on your fingers - using only one hand. The "sale" signs were prominent in the second-tier retailers, but the "haute price" folks seem to have pulled in their discount fangs - a calculation that may prove cataclysmic if they've guessed wrong on demand among those with "means" - or guessed wrong about how many people who once had "means" no longer do.
The CNBS pumpers had two mall operators on Friday morning with both claiming "strong" traffic. Uh huh. They were both inside their respective malls, and the traffic level looked more akin to a Wednesday lunch hour than Black Friday just after opening. But heh, what do I know - maybe they just had a bad location. And maybe I'm Santa Claus. Really!
The culprit in all of this is almost certainly going to be constrained credit. 29.9% jacked interest rates don't exactly promote consumer spending, and neither does having your card limit decreased to $100 over your outstanding balance. Both have been the primary mantras of the banks the last two months, right in front of the holidays. While one can certainly make the argument that from a business perspective this is smart - they're trying to prevent huge losses from people who charge up to the moon and then skip on the payment part of the deal, the fact remains that you can't spend what you don't have or have access to, and if we revert to a primarily-cash transaction model for the holidays the balance sheet impact is likely to be "interesting."
All-in I'd say that my preliminary read here is that the season is off to a start roughly equivalent to last year - which was certainly not "good". I didn't detect any meaningful upswing in terms of shoppers and certainly not in terms of what they're buying.
I'm sure there are places in this country where there were mob scenes. There always are. But that doesn't reflect on the nation as a whole; Washington DC, for example, is stuffed full of people sucking on the government teat, and I'm willing to bet that malls in that immediate area were stuffed to the rafters with people spending Uncle Sam's largesse.
But in the real world out here where most of us live, the "economic growth" meme looks to be rather stunted - and that's being generous.
Merry Grinchmas.
