Thursday Thrusting......
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2008-02-07 08:56
by Karl Denninger
 
The question is, with what and in what?

Bear claws? Bear schlongs? Bull horns?
Butts? Eye sockets? Nostrils?

So yesterday KudBlow wakes me up in a hotel room - a trip that while productive was a ****ing nightmare headed up, with fog delays at Fartsfield. Oh, did I tell 'yall that I hate Fartsfield? I spent half my ****ing life there 10-15 years ago, and while Hotlanta has spent a lot of money upgrading the place (I literally hadn't been in the airport in 10 years!), and there is now more than a couple of bars in each concourse (you can actually choose between cats-in-the-kettle chinese and reheated hamburgers now, and by God, I found a bar with Sam Adams - something DRINKABLE) the fact remains that the biggest upgrade in the whole ****ing place is the replacement of that "robotic" voice in the tram with a half-sexy female crooner calling out the stops.

I miss the robot.

Oh, and ******n it, what is it with airports? Aren't we far enough into the technology world that we now know that EVERYONE needs a ****ing power outlet when they get off the plane? So what's with having to mooch here and there to find one so that your laptop doesn't starve? Why not stick an outlet at each table in the bars? You want me to sit there between flights and buy $5 beers? Fine - give me a ****ing place to plug in my computer, and I will. Don't, and I'll drink only until the power runs out - then you're screwed as I'm going to go find me some 110 to mooch somewhere in the terminal.

I do get the "rape 'em with the $10/day Wifi" game, although I give the finger to that with my link over the cell. Bite me boyz - captive audience and all. But what does***** me off - severely - is the "captive audience" crap with beverages. Thank the TSA for that - you can't bring a sealed soda can or bottle into the "sterile" area any more, and gee whiz, did you notice that the price of a soda has nearly doubled in the concourse since that change? Gee, I wonder why?

And by the way, fly into and out of little regional airports. Why? They seem to have people at the screening stations with an IQ that is larger than their (must be removed) shoe size.

Ok, back to the markets....

So this morning I wake up and nearly shoot my TV, as Cramer is on CNBS. Thanks for nothing - now I have a headache that won't go away.

He's prattling on about "reliquifying the banks".

Let me give you a hint ****wad - The Banks need to be taken out and ****ing shot. You know why? Because they're a big part of why we're here. What they did with "securitization" should be considered FELONIOUS, not meritorious, and you don't reward felons!

Never mind the INCREDIBLE ACCURACY of this IDIOT'S calls over the last six months. Let me list just a few of the stocks he said were going to do great and yet would have done nothing but BLEED YOU DRY in your account if you listened to him:

CROX, GRMN, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, RIMM, CMI, CAT.

Anyone remember his "80/PAR/120" calls? INFAMOUS! If you listened to him, you have lost 20% or more on essentially all of those calls!

How does this clown remain on TV? Dennis Kneale? He's even WORSE!

These people get an "audience" on TV and just like in 2000-2003, all they're going to do is cost you money - and if you're one of those "boomers" who are nearing retirement, the risk is that you will find yourself dead flat broke and then the "entitlements" will be repudiated because the government won't be able to pay for them either!

Simply put as I have repeated time and time again on "securitization"- if there is only 200 basis points of risk premium-adjusted return over treasuries on a given "bucket" of loans, that is all there is, and if you manage to "find" another 100 basis points you did it by screwing someone either up or down the line.

These bankers were not clueless - they all knew that this was in fact the case.

The "money quote" out of the ASF (Asset Securitization Forum) was that "securitization was in many cases an enabling vehicle for fraud."

Ok, then where are the indictments and why didn't he FBI show up with a Racketeering charge for these clowns at their "forum"? After all, they just admitted what this "securitization" industry was a cover for, right?

THIS ISN'T ME SAYING IT - ITS COMING OUT OF THEIR OWN MOUTHS!

The outrage is that we still haven't forced these institutions to take all their "off balance sheet" crap back onto their balance sheets, mark it to the market, and then recomputed their Tier Capital ratios, publishing them all and letting the chips fall where they may.

All this crooning about how Bernanke is clueless is correct, but for the wrong reasons.

He's not clueless - he is a ****ing 2-bit coward.

Period.

Ben has refused to do the right thing - oh he's made comments like "can someone tell me what the hell those things are worth?" before, but he has refused to FORCE these institutions to quit playing their ******n games and fess up to the truth!

Ben, here is reality - if you do not get off your ass and stop allowing this bull**** all of the following is going to continue to happen, and ultimately we will wind up in an economic DEPRESSION:
  1. Spreads will continue to widen. They already have dramatically, and will continue to do so.
  2. The Fed will be the only liquidity available, because everyone else is either taking their ball and going home, or charging an insane risk premium for the use of their money. ****ibank has recently paid fourteen percent for hard capital. How do you make money as a bank when you have to spend 14% to attract hard capital against which to lend? This is an absolutely correct response by the market to the blatant fraud which has screwed investors out of trillions. The Fed does not have unlimited liquidity and you know it. What comes when YOU run out? You know full well what happens if you try to "print" and "helicopter drop" money - Treasury Rates will skyrocket higher which will instantaneously reverse what you're trying to do, WITH INTEREST!
  3. YOU (Bernanke) will eventually see someone try to get the Government to guarantee in some fashion all these bogus, fraudulently-written mortgages to keep you and your banking cronies from having to face the music. The problem with doing this is that it will instantaneously cause the cost of GOVERNMENT debt - that is, Treasuries - to ramp, which, since fixed-rate mortgages are more-or-less pegged to those rates, will collapse what is left of the real estate market! In other words - it not only won't work but will make the situation FAR WORSE.
  4. Consumer (and other private sector) debt will continue to get more expensive until ultimately it simply can't be originated at all. You've already seen this in the H.3 report, the slosh, and the Fed Funds marketplace. There is no more good collateral to pledge and as a consequence credit demand has collapsed.
  5. Those people with money to lend - that is, real money, and real wealth will continue to take their ball and bat and go home. Return of principal is more important than return on principal. You better start listening to the "Hard Money" folks Ben because you can't force them to lend no matter what you do and you also can't replace them!
  6. You cannot "reflate" an economy when you sat idly by while a $16 trillion fungible asset class - residential housing - turned into a THIRTY TRILLION ONE IN THREE YEARS TIME! That is utter horse**** and will return to the mean. All these crooners including you Ben who think you can find $16 TRILLION dollars, PLUS replace the TWENTY PERCENT of our GDP that is housing-related, are LYING.

BEN, YOU ARE OUT OF OPTIONS AND YOU KNOW IT.

All of your "helicopter talk" is just that - TALK - and it is a LIE.

In the Ivory Tower world of Princeton you can "put a floor under Treasuries" and other such horse****.

In the real world you cannot force people to either borrow or lend, which means that you are limited by THE MARKET and its view of whether what you're doing is intelligent or not.

How do we get out of this?

You get off your ass and force these institutions to "bare all" so we can tell who is insolvent and who is not. Until I and everyone else can see BARE BANK***** so we can ALL identify who has the flabby ones, who has the nice ones, and who has silicone ones ALL are going to be presumed to be fake because too much money has been lost due to the game-playing and there is no reason for anyone to risk more until the cleanup is complete!

The insolvent firms must be forced to merge their depositor base, sell off assets, and default that which can't be repaid. Consumers will jingle mail their upside down houses, as they are already starting to do AND THEY SHOULD - its a pure business decision and should be.

Homeowners need to go see an attorney, determine exactly what their options are and what the costs and benefits are of each choice, and make this decision dispassionately without regard to any so-called "morals".

THE BANKS, REAL ESTATE AGENTS AND BROKERS DIDN'T DISPLAY ANY MORALS WHEN THEY FUELED THIS BUBBLE, NOR HAVE THEY GIVEN BACK ONE NICKEL OF THEIR BONUSES AND PROFITS. WHY SHOULD ANYONE PROTECT THEM FROM THE COSTS THAT SHOULD COME FROM THEIR ACTIONS WHILE JOE SIXPACK VOLUNTARILY TAKES IT UP THE ASS?

The bad debt must be defaulted and that which can be deleveraged and paid off must be deleveraged and paid off.

HIDING LOSSES NEEDS TO BE LOOKED AT AS THE FRAUD THAT IT IS AND AGGRESSIVELY PROSECUTED, IRRESPECTIVE OF WHERE IT IS AND WHETHER INDIVIDUALS OR CORPORATIONS ARE THE TARGET OF THE INDICTMENTS THAT ISSUE AS A CONSEQUENCE.

This is NOT a recipe for "no pain", it is a recipe for sewing up the bleeding femoral artery and, if necessary, hacking off the mangled leg. Is it a great solution? No, the patient is now "Peg Leg Pete", and I'm sure he will think that sucks.

But the alternative is that the patient dies!

Which do you prefer Ben?

DO YOU WANT A RECESSION OR DO YOU WANT A DEPRESSION?

All this "Helicopter Ben" talk is utter horse**** AND YOU HAVE A DUTY TO DISABUSE THE MARKET OF THE NOTION THAT YOU CAN DO THINGS YOU'RE INCAPABLE OF, LEST YOU BE ADDED TO THE LIST OF FOOLS RUNNING THEIR MOUTHS WHILE IN FACT SAYING NOTHING OF SUBSTANCE!

It is time for some straight talk BERNANKE.

You have what used to be called Humphry-Hawkins" coming up when you get to be grilled by Congress.

You have an obligation to quit dissembling and demand that Congress do its job while you pledge to AND ACTUALLY do yours.

On CNBS it was said today "the banks can't write down everything they want to right now because it would impair their capital ratios."

Well if that's true that is also fraud because you don't write something down because you want to, you do so because it isn't worth what you marked it at!

Does not Sarbanes-Oxley make illegal the intentional filing of false financials? If you're intentionally not taking writedowns that you KNOW are called for on the merits, what's that amount to, huh?

WHERE ARE THE COPS?

All three branches of government have a job here. The Legislative branch has an obligation to see to it that the law provides appropriate punishment for intentional mispricing of risk and false filings.

The Executive Branch has an obligation to sign said laws and quit kvetching about how "the economy is fundamentally sound." No its not - you can't build a sound economy on a fraudulent premise.

And the Judicial Branch has an obligation to enforce said laws without prejudice, so that those who pull this crap Go to Jail - Go directly to Jail - Do not Pass Go and Do not Collect $200 (say much less $200 million in bonuses!)

If the Federal ****ing Government won't do their job, perhaps Cuomo in New York will! He's got a hell of a law to chase this **** with, if he decides to get aggressive with it.

Go get 'em ******n it - its far past the time that this **** should have been STOPPED!

Oh, the smart money? Its running for the hills in the treasury market. Ignore this at considerable risk to your portfolio.

Act now or watch the 1930s return to America.

THE TIMER IS APPROACHING ZERO AT A FRIGHTENING PACE BEN.

Here's your technical!

Discuss this entry (registration required to post)
 

Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives
Archive Access
Get Adobe Flash player





Blogtalk 3:30 CT Mondays
Items To Look At


Discuss The Capital Markets along with daily technical analysis with our Gold Donor program.

Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2012) - The annual 2012 Ticker

Links and Blogroll
Our policy on reciprocal links: Send us an email with your information and why you think your blog or news site would make a good addition - in most cases reciprocal link requests will be granted.
Seeking Alpha Certified
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Looking for "The Best of Market Ticker"? Check out
Ticker Classics.

Visit the forum to discuss this and other investing-related topics; see the FAQ on the forum for information about Gold Donor status including access to our technical analysis video server.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

Market Ticker content may be reproduced or excerpted online provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media.