The Market Ticker

Or the global market's, for that matter.

Essentially all of Europe was down 5-7%. The futures traded overnight and until midday, and at the close (until 5:00 PM) the /ES S&P futures were down almost 60 handles, or 4.5%, with the Nasdaq 100 /NQ futures down 75 handles, or 4%.

The DOW, were it to open here, would be down about 500.

And if you're an "equity investor for the long term", all you can do today is sit and cry, because the equity markets are closed.

They won't be tomorrow, of course.

But before we get our crack at this, Asia, then Europe, get a go at Round #2. Will the collapse continue? Good question.

This is, basically, what I've been expecting since April. Yes, it took longer to unfold than I originally suspected, but now the world markets are coming to grips with reality.

Slowly, but its happening.

Barring some sort of massive intervention (which cannot be ruled out) we will have a severe decline tomorrow at the open. It will be very tempting to "short the hole", but down this road lies great risk.

Remember folks, Bear Markets are not necessarily kind to Bears. They have a habit of stealing the money of all through violent whipsaws and both spikes and collapses in the VIX, which makes playing the options market particularly treacherous.

Always remember that until your paper profits are reduced to cash and in your hands, they're not yours! Also remember that attempting to catch the "last tick" of any move, in either direction, frequently leads to tears.

If you got any material part of this decline since the turn of the year and profited from it, you've outperformed virtually everyone.

In a Bear Market, your benchmark to exceed is CASH.

The not-amusing part of this, if you're stuck in a 401k or simply haven't heeded the warning signs and are long the market, is that there is nothing you can do at the present time.

Please remember - Bulls make money, Bears make money, but Pigs get slaughtered. And its very, very easy to be a pig in this environment and go "all in" short (or in PUTs.)

Resist the temptation.

If you have some "lotto tickets" at this point in time, you're likely looking at big winners tomorrow. Consider cashing out at least your cost basis in those positions, if you're inclined to let the rest run.

1220, my intermediate term target on the SPX, appears to be in play - perhaps as early as tomorrow. Due to the holiday this could actually happen without tripping the "lock limit" on the futures, as it will be over two trading days. We are within 45 points of that target now.

Should we get to 1220, I am almost certain to take nearly everything off and bank the money.

Can we go lower than that? Absolutely. In fact, 1070, my "full bear" target, is in view. But expecting us to go there in a straight line is almost beyond comprehension.

We have, for all intents and purposes, crashed here and now. Assuming we were to open right now the market would have lost nearly 20% of its value in less than three weeks' time. By any definition you care to use, that's a crash.

The margin calls will be flying fast and furious tomorrow, which is likely to create interesting dislocations. Those of you who like metals may be in for a truly ugly surprise.

Yes, there will be rallies. As I noted in the technical Friday night, I put some "lotto" style plays back on into the close because I was greatly disturbed by what I was seeing in the market internals, and it appeared that we were heading for Niagra.

The River DeNile flows there, you know.

Goldilocks?

She's what's for dinner.

There will be a technical at The Tickerforum under "Ticks" later this evening, once the Futures are trading and Asia has had a bit of time to digest its breakfast.

Good luck!