2021 NY Resolution: Take your mask and shove it up your ass.
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|User Info||An ADMISSION Of The Lie; entered at 2021-02-19 12:49:35|
Here is what I think I am seeing in the data.|
The country as a whole, and many of the states, peaked out on new infections ~14 days after Christmas. From then on the number of new cases has been dropping like a stone in a surprisingly linear fashion.
As a cause for that I have two explanations. After getting together with family for Christmas and sharing C-19 all around, everyone went back home for January (and February), the most inhospitable months of the year. As a result, lack of interaction has drastically reduced the number of new cases.
Two, the country as a whole, and many states, hit herd immunity thanks to Christmas. There is ample data to back this as most states that peaked after Christmas hit 7% to 9% total confirmed cases as a percentage of the population. If there are 6 unreported cases for each confirmed case that puts those states on the edge of herd immunity with 7% confirmed definitely at herd immunity with 9% confirmed.
Three. Both of the above being true is not only possible, to me it appears to have a respectable degree of probability of having happened. If either two or three is correct there will not be any more surges of cases, only small rises that fade. The caveat in that being that no new strains appear.
So, the $64 question; how long until we know if any of the above is correct? The May 1st date mentioned above is not a bad pick at all. The southern 1/3 of the country will have had 6-8 weeks of decent weather by then.
FWIW, I know of several families where one person had the C-19 symptoms and got a positive diagnosis, everyone else in the family got sick as well and did not bother with getting tested. I also know of cases where one or two in a family got sick and the other one or two did not. Finally, almost everyone I know is taking vitamin D now, something that could be very important.