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| User Info | Covid-19 -- A White Paper - To @RealDonaldTrump and @CDC; entered at 2020-12-04 04:01:36 | |||
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Notanexpat_tom Posts: 190 Registered: 2020-07-06 
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Yeah I get that, I just mean that I any attempt to project suppression on a forward basis with the unknown variables is not possible. There is of course an upper bound assuming 100% communicability and susceptibility but since we know we are not dealing with that, there is no reasonable way that can be done, even assuming 100% accurate testing. Sure, you can identify when suppression happened when you look back if a long enough time has gone by after you've started to see a decline, then it is reasonable to assume that you've hit suppression because the distance between waves is such that even taking in to account seasonal variation, if there was still susceptibility you would have had further widespread waves. The only other way we are going to be able to identify it is with widespread serological testing, but if the tests we are using for determining infection are completely broken, I would be hesitant to put any faith at all in antibody tests as well at this point. 2020-12-04 04:01:36
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