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User Info Covid19 Testing: It Is Now A SCAM; entered at 2020-07-25 14:12:44
Posts: 166307
Registered: 2007-06-26
@T7rader - The problem with a national look as a whole is that it is highly misleading, especially with states dropping quarantine orders on people who travel. FL simply extended things by doing that to NY residents, and now a bunch of other states have tried to do it too, but the amusing part is that they're states (for the most part) that already reached suppression.

We're more of a "leaky tribe" model that a homogeneous population, which is why you have an imputed infection rate of ~20% in NY and ~9% in other states, including some "next door" ones like PA. Even that's misleading to some extent because some corner of NY without a lot of tourism could have very low rates, yet it's still in NY. The reason it works in large-city states is that such a huge percentage of the population (and thus of the stats) are in those cities. MOST states have one or two large population centers. Where there are large areas of land where that's not true (e.g. the UP of Michigan) you really ought to look at them as completely separate regions but without a LOT of work nobody ever will, and I don't care enough to do the work to split them out.

A major confounding factors for exactly where a given area has to be to reach suppression appears to be demographic. I've yet to find ANY contrary examples. I don't intentionally go looking for them but it's something that surprised me more than a little in terms of the pattern and exactly what demographic factors appear to make a difference.

Look at the link below; I am following specific states of interest that are "hot" and will shift to others as they become so, if they do -- and I do expect them to. The hypothesis is there and being actively tested on a daily basis.

@Clyde - Adding MA to the thread in the Covid area . They're almost-certainly in suppression, or very, very close to it. Look here:

Last modified: 2020-07-25 15:27:35 by tickerguy

2020-07-25 14:12:44