Covid19 Testing: It Is Now A SCAM
The Market Ticker - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Logging in or registering will improve your experience here
Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives

Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.


The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be sent unmodified to lawmakers via print or electronic means or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media, to republish full articles, or for any commercial use (which includes any site where advertising is displayed.)

Submissions or tips on matters of economic or political interest may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Considering sending spam? Read this first.

2020-07-25 09:01 by Karl Denninger
in Covid-19 , 3997 references Ignore this thread
Covid19 Testing: It Is Now A SCAM
[Comments enabled]

I know, I said I was done.

But I write on scams all the time and have for more than 12 years.  In fact one of my very first articles was on WaMu (the bank) that was running a massive scam by paying dividends with money that didn't exist (they collapsed, along with a bunch of other banks, about a year later after the government did nothing to put a stop to it.)

Covid-19 testing has become a scam.

What was originally intended to inform public policy, public health and individual care decisions has now turned into a monstrous money-sucking rapejob aimed directly at the American public while making so-called "testing" companies such as Quest billions.

Let me be quite clear:

No test results that extend beyond a single infectious turn time are useful for informing public health.

No test results that extend beyond your viral replication peak are useful for informing individual care decisions.

The entire thing has now turned into a monstrous scam that exists for one purpose only: To rob you of the funds paying for the tests.  It serves no personal medical or public health purpose.

Let's start with individual care decisions.  Only a test that comes back within hours is useful to you as a person if you believe you may have Covid19.


Because without exception interventions (medications) you can take to interrupt or mitigate viral replication become useless once replication is complete.  One example is hydroxychloroquine, a drug that in 2005 Anthony Fauci himself said was "the answer" to SARS.  Ivermectin is another that may work on the same sort of mechanism.  Both, despite the screaming in the press, are extremely safe and have been used for a long time.  Ivermectin is so safe that we let non-medical people hand it out in third-world nations; it is a single-dose medication.  HCQ is used by some three million Americans with RA or Lupus on a regular basis.  While all drugs have risk these are two that have a long-established safety record.

Once you show symptoms to a viral disease you are at or near the midpoint of viral replication.  Within as little as a day -- and perhaps in as little as 12 hours -- any therapy intended to interrupt that process is a waste of time and money because viral replication in your body is exponential.  Any therapy that cannot help you now has no benefits, just as a cloth mask has no benefits, but does have risks.  It therefore is worse than useless; it can only do harm.

There is no point in going to take a test if you do not get actionable information from the test.  Within two days or so from the time you show symptoms you will either be improving or you will be in the hospital.  If you cannot get results within hours after symptoms appear then the opportunity to intervene in viral replication is gone.  In other words your state's testing system is intentionally causing you to spend money, either directly or through an insurance arrangement (whether through your health insurance plan or by the state paying for it and taxing you for those funds) for no personal benefit whatsoever

Let me repeat that: ALL lab (not "10 minute result, point-of-care") Covid19 tests that do not return results to you within a couple of hours are of no personal benefit to you of any kind because the results will come too late for you to do anything useful with the knowledge they impart.  There is exactly zero reason for you to take a Covid19 test if you cannot wait for the results in the parking lot as it will not, with absolute scientific certainty, give you any actionable information.

Yesterday these labs ran more than three quarters of a million tests in the United States and for all that did not return results within a few hours their value to the person tested was zero.

Would you accept a "test" for diabetes that didn't give you results until after your foot was full of gangrene and fell off?  That's what we're talking about here.

Delays of more than a day or so also make contact tracing, quarantine and isolation worthless.  Why?  Because without the result how do you know who to try to trace contacts from, and against whom to issue a quarantine order?  Further, if you are going to get a mild case and you're not infectious by the time the results come back then a quarantine order issued against you at that point is legally void and is in fact kidnapping or false arrest, a serious felony. Quarantine orders are only valid against infectious persons.  You have every moral and ethical right to resist being kidnapped when the person doing so has designed and implemented a pretext said government goon knows is worthless with whatever force is necessary to do so.  Indeed, the CDC itself says that if you're fever-free for 24 hours and 10 days have passed after symptoms began risk no longer exists.  So if you felt "off", three days later you're actively sick, you go get tested and the results do not come back for a week so long as you have not had a fever for 24 hours any quarantine order is facially invalid.

Worse, this scam has made contact tracing worthless because by the time you get the positive result and thus trace contacts not only has the person spread the bug to whatever extent they can since they're no longer infectious but worse, whoever got it from them is likely contagious already and has spread it again!  By the time they get the results back from their tests the cycle repeats and the entire scheme is of no value to public health whatsoever.  You've taken what has a legitimate public health purpose and turned it into a gigantic scam that has no valid purpose; it is simple make-work harassment.  Utterly nobody should cooperate with any such "contact tracer" for this reason; it is not that the purpose is invalid it is that the testing delay makes the attempt pointless for the alleged claimed purpose.  Unless you have a positive result back within 24 hours tell them all to go **** goats; there is no value in so-called "tracing" at that point.

And finally such reports make analyzing epidemiological trends impossible other than in retrospect, which is an interesting data analysis exercise after the entire thing is over but tells us exactly nothing about what is going on at the ground-level in a given community right now.  The roughly 3-5 day median period before symptoms appear is a latency we cannot change, but adding to it beyond one viral replication time makes any sort of tracking of what's going on in terms of the evolution of the outbreak worthless to inform public policy response.  This in turn makes any so-called mitigations worthless as well since by the time you can determine what they do you've trashed the economy and, if there is no benefit, or worse, harm occurs, you have permitted that harm to compound at an exponential rate.  This also leads so-called "health departments" claiming "we need to give it more time" when something is done -- which is fine if it works but if it doesn't then it takes whatever harm is occurring and multiples it by whatever (Rt * viral period) happens to be in the delay of the results.

For example if you issue a mask mandate and it actually increases spread you will see that outcome start to show up in one viral replication time.  But if your tests are not consistently back the next day (some are immediate, some come back in a couple of days, some come back in a week) the harm will show up as a small portion of the total signal generated and you may claim you need more time to evaluate the action.  If the action causes harm then you just screwed two to four times as many people by not acting on the original signal because you didn't believe it.  This has led to what's going on in my county right now where the data is clear -- the "mask mandate" either did nothing or actually increased transmission; the signal showed up exactly five days after the order went into effect (one incubation period) but because a large percentage of tests are not "point of care" (but not all) you see public health authorities ignoring the signal.  Well, that sucked big ones because now, fifteen days after the order went into effect not only has the signal not gone away (they're wrong about test reporting delays meaning "the gay will go away if we just pray harder!") what was a small signal has now bloomed into the full effect and has led to the highest one-day spike in new cases since the start of the outbreak on the 23rdan outcome either in spite of or worse caused by the mask order and which might have been avoided if, a few days after the 15th, the data was believed and the order rescinded.

It's time to cut the bull**** and shut it all down.  The virus is going to do what it's going to do; we have no effective response within any part of the government at this point so all we can do is treat cases as they appear aggressively and make damn sure we don't vector the disease into vulnerable populations.  For those who live in the general community and are at high risk go buy a P100 and use it when outside your own home or vehicle; that might work for you personally.  We can't get accurate data, we're claiming that someone who had a motorcycle wreck was a "Covid19" death, we're issuing quarantine orders against people who are no longer infectious which destroys their earnings at their job and does direct and serious harm to the economy, we're "tracing" people for no purpose whatsoever because we sat on the results until after their contacts already got the bug and passed it on themselves and we're creating a climate of fear-porn all over the media in results that are a look back which has no diagnostic or public health value.

What was a clear attempt to inform both public health an individual care decisions has now turned into nothing more than a scam.  There exist today tests that cost a buck or two, can give you results in 10 minutes from saliva and while they're not as sensitive as a lab test they detect infectious people, which is the entire point.  These are not being sold in Walgreens and CVS right here and now for one reason and one reason only -- they stop the scam instantly as they create no record, are personal to you and are also extremely cheap just like a home pregnancy test that can be had for a couple of bucks -- and in addition since they're both cheap and immediate-result they tell people that they need to stay home which will instantly stop transmission and thus collapse the entire so-called "emergency."

Oh, and Arizona has folded back and several others are in the process of doing so.  In point of fact the so-called "mitigations" have done exactly nothing; as soon as they are relaxed the virus comes back and completes the same replication sequence it was going to undertake all on its own, and when it reaches suppression levels it starts to die down, exactly as mathematics predict.  There never was 100% susceptibility to this virus, we knew that in February and now know why on a scientific basis, and as such all the fear porn was flat-out bull**** right from the start.  We've bought billions of dollars worth of useless ventilators that kill people, we've ignored therapeutics we know work by delaying their use until their benefit window has closed and we've built a "testing and contact tracing" infrastructure that does nothing other than waste money and effectively kidnap citizens who are no longer infectious.

All the so-called "experts" know it too.  Witness Fauci being caught on camera multiple times taking his mask off as soon as he thinks the camera is off him.  It wasn't just at the ballpark the other day; he was caught doing the same thing at a briefing, which everyone seems to forget with their 30 second attention spans and bong-hit addled brain.  He knows damn well masks don't work and in fact said they were nothing more than a placebo a few months ago.

Stop the charade.

View with responses (opens new window)