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|User Info||Hypothesis: Hospitals ARE The Vector @RealDonaldTrump; entered at 2020-03-29 00:05:39|
It's very, very difficult to control a fecal/oral infectious disease in a health care setting. It requires absolutely fastidious adherence to procedure when it comes to hands. One fuckup and you walk out the door with it, then in somewhere like Tokyo you get on a train, grab a rail, and the next guy who grabs it now has the virus.
That HAS to be stopped. I am not buying the oral droplet thing as a major route of transmission EXCEPT when symptomatic. But fecal/oral? Oh yeah. If one thing going through the history of polio will teach you it's that the fecal/oral route is ridiculously efficient; that son-of-a-bitch had an R0 of FIVE! In a health care setting you're concentrating disease so take the random risk of someone spreading it to you via that route and multiply it by about a thousand that if you work in that building you walk out the door with it on your hands unless you are DAMN SURE you wash those fuckers EVERY TIME before and after EVERY contact with a potentially contaminated person or thing.
Remember it's not just you -- it's that if you're contaminate and you contaminate a SURFACE the next person who touches it is fucked unless THEY also follow the protocol. That's why EVERYONE has to do it anywhere positive people are concentrated or you become the place where it spreads.
Japan is ahead of the game bigly with their general population's level of personal hygiene but that doesn't get anywhere near the level required in a hospital.
I still think the seroconversion rate .vs. actual positive tests is 100:1. We'll see if that continues to hold.
Last modified: 2020-03-29 00:07:34 by tickerguy