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User Info Hypothesis: Hospitals ARE The Vector @RealDonaldTrump; entered at 2020-03-28 13:22:54
Posts: 204654
Registered: 2007-06-26
@T7rader -
"Thats not to say that St. Louis survived the epidemic unharmed. Dehner says the midwestern city was hit particularly hard by the third wave of the Spanish flu which returned in the late winter and spring of 1919"

They concentrated the nasty strains and got fucked the next year.

The problem is that eventually you HAVE TO remove the curbs and when you do the infection comes back. If, as with most influenza bugs, it's seasonal then what do you do NEXT fall? If it's not then what? Keep them forever and live with a permanently destroyed economy?

For a seasonal bug you MIGHT get some benefit. But assuming R0 is a constant so is the suppression point with immunity in the population. If R0 is NOT a constant (e.g. you're getting a LOT of transmission in the hospitals, for example) you WANT to keep people out of the damned hospital as that's how you depress R0 enough so that herd immunity hits the threshold FASTER.

You CAN'T do two+ months of an economic shutdown. You just can't. Further, even if you did, GO RUN THE MATH -- it doesn't matter because while you suppress R0 when you drop it you're no further along with herd immunity.

All of these premises count on a vaccine rescuing you.

There has never been a persistent-immunity coronavirus vaccine.

Note that we were promised the same bullshit with HIV. It's nearly 40 years later -- where's the vaccine?
2020-03-28 13:22:54