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User Info Spinny Thing; entered at 2019-07-11 16:52:06
Posts: 158071
Registered: 2007-06-26

The likely track has shifted EAST materially, perhaps as far as the AL/MS line for the right quadrant of the most-serious part of the storm. Odds are this is no worse than a Cat 1, which is good. Wind damage is likely to not be an issue so long as you don't live in a shack, and while there may be some surge it's not likely to amount to much.

The VERY BAD, however, is that the steering environment looks MUCH weaker than it did yesterday. This means the odds of the system coming in very slowly and dumping INSANE amounts of ran -- 20+ inches in some places -- has gone up a LOT.

In particular the area from roughly 50nm west of New Orleans to the AL/MS line inland ~50 miles or so, looks to have a disturbingly high probability of getting wide-area SERIOUS rainfall amounts, with some areas within that zone getting amounts of rain over TWO FEET. The threat of more than a foot of rain could stretch inland by well more than 100 miles from the coast. THIS IS VERY BAD NEWS IF IT VERIFIES AND YOU'RE IN AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALLS.

I didn't think this was particularly high-probability yesterday, but with the track and steering current shift it looks increasingly likely.

If you live in this area BE PREPARED as once it starts, IF it does, you are almost-certainly going to be cut off from being able to leave.

Last modified: 2019-07-11 16:54:34 by tickerguy

2019-07-11 16:52:06