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User Info Spinny Thing; entered at 2019-07-10 14:43:15
Posts: 158071
Registered: 2007-06-26
We've had a VERY odd weather pattern here the last couple of weeks which has gone into the setup for this. This year so far we've had Saharan Dust that has kept anything from spinning up in the Atlantic; it severely suppresses convection formation. That, in turn however, means the water and land are both hotter than normal since precip evaporation cools both.

The last 2-3 weeks we've had very high gradients out of the SW in the afternoons and evenings, which means strong winds. The counter to this is that the usual afternoon pop-up thunderstorms have been coming out of the NORTH, which is NOT usual; they usually come out of the south and track north. Some of them have been pretty impressive little cells too with more than a few of them well into "severe" category. The genesis for this was that low that has now tracked into the gulf.

Rotation is already getting going on the long-range radar here; I saw the start of it yesterday morning, and it's clearly visible now. Convection still hasn't organized well at all but I suspect over the next 24 hours that's going to change quite-materially.

The key to this thing is really the dry air on the NE and SW sides. If that backs off then all the elements are there for VERY rapid intensification. If not then rotation or not it won't be able to get organized and it'll just be somewhat sloppy and windy, but of no real impact.
2019-07-10 14:43:15