NOAA/NHC - Stop The BULL****
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2018-10-10 16:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 767 references Ignore this thread
NOAA/NHC - Stop The BULL****
[Comments enabled]

Ok *******s, I'm calling you out.

There was no 155mph sustained wind anywhere on the ground in Michael's path.

There was no 140mph sustained wind anywhere on the ground in Michael's path.

There was no 130mph sustained wind anywhere on the ground in Michael's path.

There were 100-110mph sustained winds.  That's a nasty Cat 2, but not a 4 or 5.

There was a stormchaser on the ground, in a truck, that went through the eyewall and into the eye at Mexico Beach.

I know exactly where he was because I've been over there.  There were also multiple wind gauge readings in the same vicinity -- 110ish gusts, 90-100mph sustained.  Entirely believable given what I saw happen live on that stream watching the eyewall and eye pass over him, but not 155.

At 155 his truck would have been lifted and thrown; I would have watched him die on live video.  It didn't happen.

Yes, Mexico Beach and parts of PC got trashed -- mostly by surge.  No big shock there.  But most of those buildings you're seeing have intact roofs.  Not all (there's a fair bit of older stuff over there that was not designed to modern codes) but most.  And that's important because in a Cat4+ storm there's damn near nothing left; that's an EF3 tornado!

Hurricanes are nasty but let's stop with the bull****.  The video coming in (and the livestreams) do not support Cat 4 or 5 winds -- and neither does the available set of data from wind gauges right at impact.  In the same videos you see someone's roof go flying there's a billboard that's standing proud, tall and undamaged.  That does not happen in a Cat 4 storm.

The reason you board up your house is in evidence right there in those videos.  In a Cat 4 or 5 it does not matter as the entire building, unless it's reinforced concrete or similar, will be flattened.  If you get surged you're screwed.  The reason you board up your house is that in a Cat 1, 2 and moderate 3 if your house and roof is up to code and if you do not get hit with surge it will remain intact right up until the guy down the street, who doesn't have a place up to said code or has a bunch of crap laying around in his yard winds up generating missiles that go through your windows!

The "homes that were there and were moved" and are destroyed are nearly all mobile homes - and there are a lot of them in that area.That's very typical Cat 2 damage; most to all mobile homes will be destroyed in a Cat 2.  They simply cannot take 100mph winds.

I'm not trying to make light of this storm folks.  It was nasty at impact and I was fully-prepared to bug out if I had to.  As it stands we barely got tropical storm force winds here and only about an inch or so of rain.  Nothing; we get worse in a thunderstorm.  There are two videos up on my channel from the exact time the storm was coming into Mexico Beach about 20 minutes apart.

If you were between Panama City and Apalachicola, or even east to Carabelle and similar and in a place subject to surge, or in a mobile home, or in a structure not built to modern codes for the roof in particular then yes, you got it in the face.  But the damage I'm seeing is typical of a Cat 2 -- not a Cat 4.

Those running a politicized level of "reporting" on storms like this do a great disservice.  When an actual Cat 4 or 5 impact looms those who went through this one, didn't get surged and were in modern construction will stay and die.

We must put a stop to this sort of "grade inflation" especially among those doing it for political (e.g. Globull**** warming) reasons -- they are going to get people killed.

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