Flynn And Reality
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2017-12-01 15:46 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 417 references Ignore this thread
Flynn And Reality
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This is a lot worse than the Trumpers are letting on.

First, let's dispel the complete and utter crap that's flying around: Mueller can't indict Trump.

That was pretty-well hashed out during Nixon's Presidency; even after it was known that he was involved in the Watergate Burglary at a level that could have led to an accessory charge he still wasn't indictable.  Nor was he indictable for obstruction either when he destroyed the tapes.

But, in this case, that's not the end of the issue.  Mueller can indict anyone who conspired with Flynn, who he just gave a "no felony time" free pass card to, other than Trump.  I would not be shocked at all if there's a wink-wink nod-nod that with cooperation that won't even be recorded as a felony conviction either.

No prosecutor does that unless he thinks he can get more and better.  Therefore Mueller does and the target isn't Trump since he can't indict him and he knows it.

That's bad, not good, because the likely target is one of Trump's closest and the highest-probability targets include either one of his kids or their spouse (e.g. Kushner.)

I remind you that a conspiracy charge only requires some sort of act of involvement and a predicate act to complete a felony, which Flynn just admitted to.  So the predicate act is there, now we only need the involvement of another person that in some way furthers the offense.  That's a damned-broad brush he's got there and it's before we get to a potential obstruction charge.

That's where the risk is -- along with whether Trump would immediately pardon any of those people if Mueller indicts them.

This much I'm sure of: Trump's prediction that this thing will over by the end of the year, given that Mueller just gave Flynn a "get out of jail free" card, appears to me to have a probability of zero.

PS: Twitter is all ablaze with the Trumper horse**** about ABC's retraction being dispositive -- that the contact was after the election (but prior to inauguration.)  Nope.  The Logan Act, constitutionally infirm or not (it has not been struck) still applies until inauguration day if there was a policy-setting or interfering component to the conversations.  Does the ABC "retraction" change the corner case potentials?  Absolutely, but none of the above that I wrote earlier was predicated on a belief that corner case occurred, which if you've read anything I've written on this since before the election you know has been my position -- that is, I have never believed there was a quid-pro-quo for Russian election interference within the Trump campaign.  The issue is, and remains that obstruction (of which "lying to the FBI" is a lesser-included if you want to get down to brass tacks) is usually what fells politicians and to the extent that an attempt was made to obstruct the investigation it remains a problem -- potentially an impeachable one for Trump and an indictable one for those close to him.

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