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|User Info||Handicapping The Norks; entered at 2017-08-11 18:11:28|
Excellent analysis as usual. Thank you for posting it. A few nights ago I was trying to do some research on the nork missile program and found this article (2008):|
Reading between the lines, I suspect the Russians did a **lot** more than sit on their hands while NK reverse engineered the scud designs, although they did a fair job of maintaining plausible deniability.
One question for you, Karl, do you think the recent tests demonstrate sufficient lift capability? I've been mulling this over, and I'm guessing even with an inert rocket test they would need to ballast the cone of the rocket with essentially the same mass as the warhead in order to properly test the stability and guidance systems. Thoughts?
I also saw some news footage yesterday of fragments of one of the recent test missiles being pulled from the ocean. In the footage you can see that they recovered at least a combustion chamber/nozzle and a liquid fuel/LOX pump. That will tell our guys a lot about the program. It would be "interesting" if those fragments provide concrete proof of origin...
My prediction (fear) is that NK will in fact lob rockets in the direction of Guam, not close enough to hit but close enough to trigger our response. I can only hope--as Trump has hinted at--that we have some combat capabilities that have not yet been demonstrated publicly. Otherwise there will be massive loss of life.