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User Info Handicapping The Norks; entered at 2017-08-11 14:32:08
Zappafan
Posts: 2939
Registered: 2007-11-30 Atlanta
Good summary of the technical picture. I haven't heard anyone in the mainstream media bring up point #4 on surviving re-entry (surprise - not.)

Obviously the Chinese government is playing both sides here. Technically didn't China say that they won't accept "regime change?"

I take that to mean that they won't act if the US bombs the be-jaysus out of North Korea, but if we try to move troops in or install a stooge regime, well ... that is another story.

If I were handicapping this, I'd give it at least a 30% chance that we try to take out Lil 'Kim and his minions, leaving a smoldering mess for the Chinese to clean up. It's China's problem then. Likely outcome: Chinese Red Army troops come in to clean up and end up on the border at the DMZ. Install their own puppet regime, and maybe go home in 10 years or so.

The other problem is what happens to South Korea.
2017-08-11 14:32:08