Mueller Eh?
The Market Ticker - Commentary on The Capital Markets
2017-05-19 06:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 367 references Ignore this thread
Mueller Eh?
[Comments enabled]  

Robert Mueller has been named special prosecutor for the "Russia investigation" with regard to Trump's campaign.

Mueller, a former FBI head and federal prosecutor, is well-respected by both sides of the aisle -- and with reasonably good cause.  I'm aware of no material accusations of misconduct during his tenure and he has a reputation for being honest -- and tough.  He has also worked with Comey before -- extensively.  The conflict of interest issue is obvious -- and, from the point of view of the DOJ, irrelevant.  You take from that whatever you wish.

In my view of events this is generally good in that it will lead to a dispositive outcome.  If, as Trump asserts, there were no untoward actions by his campaign, his staff and those close to him during the campaign or afterward with regard to Russia then the Democrat narrative will be demolished and laid rest in a pile of ash.

However, if there is evidence of obstruction or worse, actual collusion of some sort with the Russians then all Hell is going to break loose.

The problem for those who are preening for a "Trump Trade" is that either outcome leaves such a trump-trade expectation in the dustbin.

Let's assume that the now-being-repeated video that "there was no obstruction" proves up.  So what? The Democrats are not going to let this go and will argue they've been railroaded.  Now what?  Anything that has to go through regular order is not going to happen and remember that due to how the process works under reconciliation you have to get the AHCA, or whatever it turns into in the Senate, through before you take up taxes since you can't score the tax bill otherwise.

If there was collusion, on the other hand, then Trump is burnt toast and it makes zero difference who in his campaign did the colluding.  Whether it was him or anyone else in his campaign if there's any sort of fire to go with the smoke his administration is finished in practical terms even if they don't impeach him (and the Republicans won't, by the way, so you can forget about that.)

Finally either way the House is likely to flip Democrat in 2018.  This is just math; the party in power nearly always loses seats and frequently loses the majority after the first two years of a new administration where the Presidency changes hands.  The day that happens you can forget about passing anything having to do with actual tax cuts and I remind you that the 2018 mid-term campaigning is due to start pretty much as soon as Congress comes back from summer recess!

If you think there will be tax reform given the present environment you need to get the crack pipe out of your mouth as you are a drug-addled fool.  Trump had the opportunity to get this done, and to fix health care (for real; see my proposal to the top right) but he simply does not have the luxury of time into a midterm election in which he is nearly-certain to lose seats in the House and probably will lose the House majority.

View with responses (registration required to post)
 
Main Navigation
MUST-READ Selection:
The Bill To Permanently Fix Health Care For All

Full-Text Search & Archives
Archive Access

Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be sent unmodified to lawmakers via print or electronic means or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media, to republish full articles, or for any commercial use (which includes any site where advertising is displayed.)

Submissions or tips on matters of economic or political interest may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.