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User Info Prognostication: Here It Comes; entered at 2017-04-17 10:25:54
Tickerguy
Posts: 148454
Registered: 2007-06-26
Quote:
Saying that interest rates will go UP is basically saying "this time it's different".

How do I respond?

Who says "this time it's different?"

You're asking the wrong question and if you don't understand why by now, having been here since 2007 and having had me explain it something north of 100 times in over 10,000 articles I can't help and I'm tired of beating my head against the wall with people who refuse to actually READ what's written!

It is exactly that sort of reply that is WHY after 10 years I've concluded that it's not worth attempting to write on these topics any more. NOBODY BOTHERS TO READ 90% of it -- they have their bit of dogma, they stick to it, and IGNORE anything that doesn't mesh with it EVEN WHEN IT IS IN THE SAME ARTICLE ONE SENTENCE AWAY.

Today the /DX is right near 100. If you bet on it going to 40 from 60 you've lost 60% of your money and that's if you didn't use any leverage! Congratulations. Likewise if you were convinced gold was going to breach 2,000 and scream higher to $10,000 and bought into that rampjob in 2011.

You might note that back in the 2007 timeframe I was pretty convinced that the /DX was going to 40. Well, it reversed. Instead of sticking with my beliefs which were clearly wrong I looked at why and figured out the reason for the difference between expectation and reality, then adjusted for that. It wasn't hard to do IF YOU BOTHERED TO LOOK AT MORE THAN THE ONE SENTENCE OUT OF TEN THAT MESHED WITH WHAT YOU WANTED TO HEAR.

So good luck to 'yall, because despite the TOPIC of this thread I PREDICT THAT THOSE 30 MILLION WILL DIE because once again NOBODY IS GOING TO READ BEYOND THEIR DOGMA just as was amply demonstrated by someone who's been here SINCE 2007 AND YET HAS FOUND THEMSELVES INCAPABLE OF DOING SO.

smiley

Last modified: 2017-04-17 10:34:16 by tickerguy

2017-04-17 10:25:54