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User Info Prognostication: Here It Comes; entered at 2017-04-17 09:41:56
Tickerguy
Posts: 148459
Registered: 2007-06-26
Quote:
The government could let people die, it could try to finance healthcare to the destruction of the currency

That doesn't do anything, as I pointed out.

Yes, they could try it, but I don't think they will simply because of the enormity of the numbers involved. Bush did it in '08 with Obama inbound because at the time it had a horizon on it and the medical side was half what it is now.

In other words a trillion dollar deficit was a "couple of year" thing that had a terminal point (we're "bailing out" the economy) and thus while it was ugly, it was, they believed, doable.

This time it will be nothing of the sort. Medicare + Medicaid will be $2 trillion a year and rising at 9% compounded forever when they try it. In other words, at the time it's $2 trillion a year and a trillion of deficit ($600 billion more than now), but it's not a year or two, it's perpetual and in another five years it will be roughly $3.5 trillion a year and going up at $600 billion annually!

There's utterly no way that will be "accepted" by the markets.

THERE'S NOT A PRAYER IN HELL THAT WILL PASS THE SNIFF TEST FOR EVEN ONE TRADING DAY.

It won't happen, and that means the ONLY other possibility is to cut people off, "hard stop" style.

IMHO you're going to start to see the edges of this THIS COMING YEAR when the new Obamacare policies come out. It won't suddenly appear if you're paying attention, but most people aren't. THEY will get it "suddenly" only because they didn't pay attention to the creep until it got to them, but the "zero option" counties will start this coming summer and fall, and that's the tip of the spear headed right for your *******. The Medicaid (in particular) side of it is going to get VERY ugly because there's already a problem finding places that will take it, and that's going to go to near-zero as the funding squeeze tightens.

If they pass a health "bill" that block-grants to the states then they're just shoving a good part of the destruction on the STATE budgets, as I've previously pointed out. That has a very short half-life (perhaps a couple of years) before the STATES wind up having to throw up on it, since they cannot run budget deficits formally and they run out of tricks FAST trying to hide it.
2017-04-17 09:41:56