I don't see the business case for this company as I don't see the sell-through on a consistent, forward basis. Consumers will always take something for free: The store willing to give away steak will give away every piece of it they have! That's not the question: Will the people then come back and pay full price for the second slab of meat?
I think the answer is "no", and if I'm right on that then the actual value of the Groupon service is zero, and thus their stock is also a zero.
It's just a matter of time.
Today the stock had a "nice" pop, up almost 8% in anticipation of losses, er, "earnings." Then the market closed and the stock sank like a stone to $4.47 a stub on their report.
They have about a billion on the balance sheet in cash, so they're not dead yet. But you don't get to make $80 million a quarter in losses forever with only a billion to work with; indeed, a couple of years of that and you'll be all out of money.
If you bought it at $31 how are you feeling now?
Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker
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