ISM Services: 55.2%

Posted 2013-02-05 10:31
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI™ registered 55.2 percent in January, 0.5 percentage point lower than the seasonally adjusted 55.7 percent registered in December. This indicates continued growth at a slightly slower rate in the non-manufacturing sector.

Among sub-indices production advanced at a slower rate and new orders declined in pace as well.

However, while employment improved deliveries did not, going the other way, and inventories are now into contraction. Backlog was flat.

Of importance is that despite inventories contracting the sentiment is that too much is being held, which is not so good in terms of forward expectations.

My read on this report is that it's a mixed bag, with the employment index being the bright spot, and that is at odds with what the Household Survey showed us.

Given that services are ~70% of the economy, this is not to be ignored -- divergences always resolve one way or the other, and now we must wait to figure out which.

The regional fed surveys should provide good color on this in the coming month.

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