This is an amusing report..... and tomorrow we'll see if it's worth the digital ink spilled to print it.
ROSELAND, N.J. – January 3, 2013 – Private sector employment increased by 215,000 jobs from November to December, according to the December ADP National Employment Report®, which is produced by Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP®), a leading provider of human capital management solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The November 2012 report, which reported job gains of 118,000, was revised upward by 30,000 to 148,000 jobs.
That's a hell of a jump.
The interesting (and disturbing) internals, however, are that most of the change was found in medium businesses -- and large business was good for more than three times that of small.
This is backward compared ot historical trends when it comes to "who creates jobs", and strongly implies seasonal hiring -- perhaps hiring reported in December but actually taking place around Black Friday. This is entirely possible, since your first payroll is typically 2 weeks after your hire date, and ADP is a payroll company.
In addition the claim of more than 39,000 construction jobs (in December?) stretches credibility; I seem to recall this white stuff that tends to interfere with construction in most of the nation, but heh, what do I know?
Tomorrow will be an interesting NFP; as is usually the case I will be analyzing off the household survey, not the headline number. Nonetheless the headline is likely +150k with about a third of that coming from seasonal factors.
There is a possibility, however, that it prints over 200k -- and if it does the market is likely to have a near-orgasmic reaction to it as a follow-through to yesterday.
Place your bets!
Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker
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