In the week ending November 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 410,000, a decrease of 41,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 451,000. The 4-week moving average was 396,250, an increase of 9,500 from the previous week's revised average of 386,750.
The previous week was (as usual) revised up from 439k to 451k.
This just plain sucks.
Steve Liesman is trying to pump Christmas (of course) but the reality is something different, as the claims data shows.
Hmmm.... wait a second here.
Last week's numbers were the 15th's. These numbers were from two weeks earlier, ending on the 3rd, and they show a huge increase in regular state claims along with a big increase in EUC.
Now granted, Sandy came ashore that week. But most claims offices couldn't process anything during that week. So is this data from the actual storm week or is it back-dated? One has to wonder here, but what's not a wonder is that a quarter-million people went onto unemployment that week while unions were turning away non-union electrical workers who tried to show up and help restore power.
I think we have an ugly surprise coming in the December Jobs Report folks.... in fact, given what I'm seeing here I think an expectation of a negative print had better be in the forefront of your mind, because I'm starting to have trouble seeing how we avoid it.
Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker
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