Electoral Update: Debates Matter
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2012-10-11 12:18 by Karl Denninger
in Politics Ignore this thread
Electoral Update: Debates Matter

Let nobody ever again say that debates do not matter.

The current Electoral map has shifted massively, and is now 201/181 for Obama.  Coming back from "lost and done" since the first debate are Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all of which were Obama's and all of which now are in Romney's column -- albeit by tiny margins.

Ohio remains +2.6 for Obama, which is within the typical 3% margin of error, and Florida is a literal tie.

What looked like a lost cause no longer is; it appears that my read of the debate, that Romney cut off Obama's head, crapped down his neck and then wiped the floor with what remained, was shared by the electorate.  This sort of a shift is not common, but the debate was such a blow-out that this sort of result should not surprise.

As for the next couple of weeks things get interesting this evening with Biden/Ryan up.  This is tougher to call; Ryan will clearly come prepared with facts and figures, and it will be up to Biden to not stick his foot in his mouth, as he has in the past. 

If he does the damage may prove unrecoverable.

Let's see what this evening looks like, then re-assess.

This much is certain -- Obama cannot afford another weak showing in the debates.  While he still has more paths to win than Romney it's no longer the sort of blow-out odds that were present just a couple of weeks ago.

As for Johnson I have yet to hear a single cogent thing out of him other than rabid screaming out of his "supporters" that claim he has been unfairly dismissed.  Sorry, but nope -- he's been dismissed because he has continues to focus on dope smoking and gay marriage -- tertiary issues that have zero to do with the salient and important issues on the table in this election cycle.  At this point it is simply too late for him to do anything other than try to spoil someone's 1/2% margin (probably Romney's) -- and that, my friends, he both can and just might do.

Spoilers -- in both candidates and milk -- should be flushed down the drain.  Any candidate that is incapable of putting forward an actual cogent and fully-formed series of thoughts in his campaign on the issues that are of primary importance to the electorate is a candidate that you simply must ignore; if you can't find a candidate to vote for on those primary issues then either intentionally undervote or do as I intend in the Presidential race.