In June, the seasonally adjusted composite index of manufacturing activity—our broadest measure of manufacturing—lost seven points to -3 from May’s reading of 4. Among the index’s components, shipments declined two points to -2, new orders dropped thirteen points to end at -12, and the jobs index moved down eight points to 8.
Don't get too crazy-bearish on this -- yet.
Employees and wages both remained positive - so far. But workweek contracted, and new orders and backlog both collapsed. Shipments and capacity both are negative and prices received are not holding up.
This is a bad report and follows on the back of the disastrous Philly Fed index. One more month and the recession calls will start coming "fast and furious" -- I'll go ahead and issue one now -- we'll recognize it somewhere around December, +/- three months.
Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker
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