May ISM: Hmmm...

Posted 2012-06-01 10:08
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The PMI registered 53.5 percent, a modest decrease of 1.3 percentage points from April's reading of 54.8 percent, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 34th consecutive month.

The internals on this are interesting. The most-encouraging is the new orders number, which was up 1.9 from the last report and is at 60.1, growing strongly. This is in direct opposition to several other reports that have shown contraction in orders.

However, prices collapsed, down to 47.5 (direct contraction) from 61 (strong growth) -- that's not good, and is a sign of severe -- even possibly critical stress.

I think the market was expecting an apocalyptic report and didn't get it, but the prices internal is very ugly -- it implies that in order to maintain volumes manufacturers are having to slash pricing. If that's maintained it's a recessionary indication and will shortly filter through to employment -- exactly where you do not want it to show up.

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