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(The Year 2012 In Review)
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|User Info||2012: The Big Suck (2011 Review, 2012 Outlook); entered at 2011-12-28 10:55:17|
Registered: 2007-07-30 Dallas TX
Humans are not very good at predicting the future.|
In calculus class they teach you to take little time slices to approximate large curved systems. This is what I think humans do - they find themselves in some complex cyclical or wildly curved system, and because they can only process small time slices - they assume because things are going up or down at that point in time ( ha the second derivative - I remember something LOL) that that is the way it will go forever.
Then the curve rolls over or worse - stutter steps instantly - and we are ****ed.
A good example of such a stutter step would be Dec 7 1941. All changes overnight. Taleb's black swan there.
IMO - if you want to predict things - it makes more sense to look at how the fundamental institutions of your society are performing and how the emotions are changing.
IMO - echoing Karl - MF Global is far far more important than almost anything that has happened, maybe since 911. One of the primary institutions propping up trust in the system has imploded and no one is exhibiting any drive to fix it.
That's beyond bad.
There is a ****ton of events out there waiting in the wings to black swan us - it may not matter so much what 'particular' event happens next, all that matters is that you understand that they are out there, standing in line, just dying to drop kick you in the nuts.
So my advice is, buy a cup. Hell buy a lot of cups - whatever you think they might be - and don't forget to wear them - cause I think you're going to get less and less warning as time goes on.
My my most helpful 2012 prediction is ... we're gonna get kicked in the nuts LOL.
I will add - as a long time gold bug - I think anyone holding gold right now is doing about as well with it as they ever will. Look at my sig. The price of gold is controlled by TRADERS - now it is possible that that could decouple - but it never has, so why would it now. Traders use CREDIT. Credit is going to DIE. Ergo, gold, will, at some point DIE ALONG eith it.
And I say this in the most helpful manner possible. I bought gold at $270. Buying it here is insanity. Holding it here takes giant ****ing balls. See above. Big balls makes for a big target. You like risk - knock yourself out, but considering all the troubles that are in the wings, betting the farm on a commodity, ANY commodity, does not strike me as 'buying a cup'. YMMV
Last modified: 2011-12-28 11:00:51 by kochevnik