In the week ending December 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 381,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 404,000. The 4-week moving average was 393,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average of 396,250.
That's good, right?
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 523,642 in the week ending December 3, an increase of 151,002 from the previous week. There were 585,711 initial claims in the comparable week in 2010.
Heh wait a second! Actual numbers were up by 151,002 from last week and totaled over 500,000?! My that's a nice "seasonal adjustment" you have there (~30%?!)
The market appears to have figured it out fast and is now tanking. Or maybe that's Europe. Who knows -- other than the fact that the spike high that came from the announcement has now disappeared and we're trading down some 10 handles on the S&P from the "exuberant" high print.
There's another interesting anomaly in the report too -- in the "big table" the regular claims numbers were down 207,000 for November 19th, and over 200,000 more in the EUC and Extended benefit columns. Was that actual people finding jobs in front of Thanksgiving or is there a mass roll-off of people from the unemployment benefit rolls?
This much is certain: There's no support for the premise that it was "found jobs" in the employment report last week and that, in turn, means that on a forward basis I hope you're not looking for anything good in the economic statistics to come.
Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker
The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.
NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.
The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.
Looking for "The Best of Market Ticker"? Check out Ticker Classics.
Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.
The Market Ticker content may be reproduced or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media or for commercial use.
Submissions or tips on matters of economic or political interest may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.